Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in the Grand South and Grand Southeast

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist across most Grand South and Grand Southeast districts. Food consumption gaps are expected to widen during the peak lean season between January and March before improving with the start of the main harvest in April. Since the rainy season began in November, erratic and delayed rainfall has negatively affected crop production and reduced demand for agricultural labor. Below-average to average rainfall is forecast from December to April; if below-average conditions dominate, crop losses are likely.
• Poor and very poor households in the Grand South have depleted root and tuber stocks atypically early, increasing reliance on market purchases amid seasonally high food prices. Many households are resorting to negative coping strategies such as reducing meal frequency, selling productive assets, and consuming wild fruits such as raketa to mitigate consumption gaps. Reduced crop production is limiting hiring by better-off households, reducing labor opportunities and further constraining income for poor and very poor households.
• Households in the Grand Southeast are currently meeting their minimum food needs with off-season rice and fish, but are expected to shift to wild fruits such as breadfruit between January and April. As the cyclone season progresses, the risk of excessive rainfall and cyclone-related crop damage is increasing, along with potential infrastructure losses and higher transport costs. Despite variability in the start-of-season dates across the region, current average to above-average soil moisture levels should support normal establishment of maize and other cereals in most areas of the East and Southeast.
• The annual inflation rate declined from 7.5 percent in September to 7.4 percent in October 2025, the lowest level since June 2024. The International Monetary Fund projects continued decreases through the end of 2025, with inflation expected to reach 7.3 percent. This easing could provide some relief for household purchasing power and improve market access for poor households.
• Rice imports more than doubled in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024; another surge is expected if the February-April 2026 growing season is poor. While imports may temporarily improve affordability, they will negatively affect income opportunities for agricultural producers and laborers in the medium term, as imported rice is generally less expensive than local rice.

This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 22, 2025. 

• Most poor and very poor households in the Grand South and Grand Southeast have exhausted root and tuber reserves atypically early, driving increased market dependence amid seasonally high food prices.
• Below-average rainfall in recent weeks has led to atypical dryness in parts of western and southern Madagascar. These unfavorable weather conditions are expected to hinder off-season rice cultivation and main season planting, further constraining agricultural output and food security in the Grand South and Grand Southeast (Figure 1).
• Despite atypically high production of key cash crops like vanilla and lychee, declining international demand has reduced prices, lowering labor demand and depressing wages. Poor market demand for cash crops continues to result in below-average seasonal labor opportunities nationally.
• Livestock herd sizes in the Grand South are similar to last year and above the three-year average. As of December, cattle prices averaged 800,000 MGA per head (approximately 180 USD), a 30 percent increase compared to last year. Prices for small ruminants have decreased due to high supply, as poor and middle-income households are increasing sales to purchase food. Zebu prices in December 2025 remain above the three-year average, as households limit sales by relying on small income sources and wild fruits. In contrast, goat prices have fallen sharply, with male sheep averaging 150,000 MGA (about 40 percent lower than December 2024).

Humanitarian food assistance

• Since January, 15 international NGOs have closed field offices in the Grand South due to financial constraints. Despite these closures, NGO’s such as the Adventist Development and Relief Agency (ADRA) manage food and non-food item stocks from warehouses in the southeastern region, supporting logistics for emergency operations. Distributions will typically be triggered by shocks such as cyclones or floods and are expected to be limited in scope.

Most of the assumptions that underpinned FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario for the Madagascar Food Security Outlook from October 2025 to May 2026 remain valid; however, the following updates have been made to incorporate new evidence:

• Political uncertainty following the September regime change and October transitional government is expected to persist through early 2026. However, direct impacts on food security in the Grand South and Grand Southeast will remain limited, as these regions are primarily dependent on local production and informal trade networks. Sporadic unrest in urban centers may cause temporary supply chain disruptions but is unlikely to significantly affect rural food availability.
• Local staple food prices are expected to remain above average through March due to seasonal trends, forecasted cyclone-related disruptions, and high market dependence during the lean season. Rice imports will continue to supplement local supplies, supported by low international prices. To address domestic food shortages caused by below-average rice harvests, rice imports more than doubled in the first half of 2025 compared to last year, and another surge is expected if the February-April 2026 growing season is poor. While imports may temporarily improve affordability, they will negatively affect income opportunities in the medium term for agricultural workers producing more expensive local rice. Local prices may stabilize or decline slightly from April onward with the arrival of the main harvests, though they will remain above the five-year average
• Inflation is projected to hover around 7-8 percent, driven by food prices and currency depreciation, despite some relief from lower global energy costs. The MGA is expected to depreciate gradually due to worsening trade imbalances and reduced foreign currency inflows from investment, vanilla exports, and tourism. Continued depreciation will increase import costs and further constrain household purchasing power.
• Fuel prices will remain subject to the automatic adjustment mechanism, with monthly changes capped at 200 MGA per liter. Despite low global oil prices, a weak MGA will raise local import costs. Higher pump prices are expected to increase transport costs and food prices, particularly in rural areas. Rising kerosene prices will disproportionately affect poor households reliant on kerosene for cooking and lighting.
• Agroclimatology:  Based on below-average precipitation to date, agroclimatology forecasts expect maize yields to be well below average in parts of the south and western regions. Weather conditions are expected to improve with average precipitation forecast for the start of 2026, but the main season harvest will likely be negatively impacted by mixed conditions at the start of the season. 

Humanitarian food assistance

• Most humanitarian food distributions are planned monthly and will be triggered by shocks such as cyclones or floods. The WFP launched its emergency lean season response in October, targeting approximately 560,000 people per month in the Grand South and Grand Southeast. Districts of particular concern include Anosy, Androy, Atsimo Andrefana, and Atsimo Atsinanana. Assistance includes food distributions and malnutrition prevention activities for children under two years and pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls. Although the response intends to cover the entire lean season (October-March), it is unclear if current resources will allow full coverage.

Grand South

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist and worsen until the green harvest begins in April 2026. Households will likely employ coping strategies such as reducing meal frequency and size, increasing consumption of wild foods, and selling any remaining productive assets (such as livestock). Households are selling small ruminants such as male goats in large quantities, resulting in a 40 percent decrease in price compared to December 2024. If conditions continue to deteriorate, households will begin selling their female livestock as well. Demand for agricultural labor will increase seasonally, but wages will remain below average due to limited hiring capacity among better-off households following several years of weather-related shocks. Many poor households are unable to meet essential non-food needs such as healthcare, education, and transportation. These households are turning to non-agricultural casual work, including water and charcoal sales or informal mining. Some household members will migrate temporarily to northern or eastern regions for labor opportunities and return in June for the cassava harvest. In historical areas of concern such as Amboasary-Atsimo, global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates are just below the Emergency threshold of 15 percent (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs). Poor sanitation conditions are further worsening an already fragile nutritional situation. Acute malnutrition rates are expected to rise seasonally in the Grand South and Grand Southeast through March, driven by reduced meal frequency, limited dietary diversity, and reliance on hazardous wild foods such as pikopiko. After the green and cassava harvests in late March and June, respectively, food availability will likely improve. Most areas are projected to transition from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) by late April or May, though pockets of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely persist in the most drought-affected zones.

Grand Southeast

Limited Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through the peak of the lean season in remote districts such as Ikongo, Nosy Varika, and Befotaka (covering portions of MG18 and MG22), while area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are anticipated across the rest of the Grand Southeast for the remainder of the scenario period. The off-season rice harvest that began in December, combined with demand for agricultural labor, is helping to partially offset the impact of depleted household food stocks. Seasonal labor demand will continue throughout December for land preparation and planting, and restart in May for harvesting, though wages remain below average due to limited hiring capacity among better-off households weakened by consecutive years of poor agricultural production. Poor households will likely employ coping strategies such as relying on seasonal fruits (e.g., lychee, jackfruit, and mango) to supplement food consumption or earn income for food purchases. Others will engage in charcoal sales, petty trade, or informal mining, though increased competition will limit earnings. Conditions are expected to improve gradually after the main rice harvest in April and May, with most districts shifting to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes by the end of the scenario period, although isolated pockets of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) may persist in highly isolated and cyclone-affected areas.

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

A direct cyclone strike or other weather shock

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Forecasts for late 2025 and early 2026 indicate particularly heavy rainfall for eastern regions, along with an increased risk of tropical cyclones. A cyclone strike or severe flooding in the Grand South or Grand Southeast would further impede households’ ongoing recovery from past weather shocks and exacerbate an already precarious food security situation. Damage to key infrastructure would likely lead to supply disruptions and price spikes for essential food and non-food items during the time of year when households are most market dependent. A cyclone occurring prior to the completion of the 2025/26 harvest would have the most significant impact on acute food insecurity. Strong winds and excessive rainfall could cause substantial damage to crops and jeopardize next season’s cash crop harvest in the Grand Southeast, as some crops require several years to mature. This would likely lead to an increase in the proportion of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). This would not change area-level outcomes in much of the Grand South but could lead to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in areas of the Grand South and Grand Southeast previously projected in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Depending on timing and severity of damage, anticipated area-level improvements to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between April and May could fail to materialize.

Alternatively, if below-average precipitation continues in the western and southern regions, agricultural production will be negatively impacted. Prolonged dryness during the main growing season would reduce soil moisture and hinder crop development, resulting in below-average yields for staple crops such as maize and cassava. These conditions would exacerbate existing consumption gaps during the lean season, delay anticipated improvements from the green harvest in April, and increase the proportion of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Many of the key sources of evidence utilized for FEWS NET’s October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook remain the same; however, new and additional sources of evidence are listed below.