Lingering impacts of past weather shocks to drive high needs in southern areas

• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across the Grand South and Grand Southeast between August and September 2025. In the Grand South, ongoing cassava and sweet potato harvests have been near average despite localized deficits, and poor households will be able to meet their food needs with own produced crops. However, many are likely to struggle to afford their essential non-food needs due to reduced crop sales from below-average maize and bean harvests and the need to service debts incurred during the historic drought. In the Grand Southeast, households will continue to benefit from access to own production and a seasonal increase in agricultural labor opportunities during the height of cash crop production, though low wages and reduced hiring capacity will limit this key income source.
• Between October and January 2026, area-level outcomes are expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in much of the Grand South as the peak lean season approaches. In the Grand South, food stocks are expected to be prematurely exhausted by poor households as soon as October, especially for poor households who experienced multiple consecutive seasons of below-average harvests in recent years. In the Grand Southeast, heightened demand for agricultural labor during cash crop harvesting and main season rice planting will allow most households to meet their food needs until the off-season rice harvest begins in December, maintaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In contrast, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in the most remote areas where labor opportunities and wages are lower and seasonal food price increases are markedly higher due to deteriorating access conditions during the rainy season.  
• Food assistance needs are expected to be similar to recent years due to the lingering impacts of multi-season weather shocks (drought and cyclone strikes) on household access to food and income in the Grand South and Grand Southeast. Many poor households have yet to economically recover and had to sell a large portion of this year’s harvest to service debts, limiting the improvements in food consumption normally expected after a near-average root and tuber season. Needs are expected to rise from October through January 2026, coinciding with the arrival of the lean season.
• The areas of highest concern include Beloha, Tsihombe, Ampanihy, and Ambovombe districts in the Grand South and Ikongo and Nosy Varika districts in the Grand Southeast. 

Root and tuber harvest: In the Grand South, households are continuing to harvest main season cassava and sweet potatoes, replenishing household food stocks and improving access to food. According to key informants, ongoing harvests are generally near-average; however, localized deficits persist due to cyclone-related crop damage during the cultivation period in coastal Beloha and persisting constrained access to inputs (such as seeds and planting materials).

Rice production: Planting activities for off-season rice are currently underway in the main rice-producing areas of the central highlands (Analamanga, Vakinakaratra, and Itasy regions) and in eastern Madagascar (Alaotra Mangoro region) and in the southeast. Land preparation for the main rice season is also ongoing.

Cash crop production: In eastern Madagascar and the Grand Southeast, ongoing cultivation of cash crops (such as vanilla, pepper, and cloves), is driving seasonally elevated demand for agricultural labor. However, cash crop price volatility on the international market and a reduced number of trading partners are exerting downward pressure on farmgate prices. The deterioration in terms of trade is weakening profitability, limiting producers’ capacity to hire labor, suppressing wages, and decreasing agricultural labor incomes. This is heavily impacting poor households who depend on agricultural labor. Even though cash crop plants have largely regenerated following damage from consecutive years of cyclone strikes, the multiple years of below-average production are negatively impacting this income source.

Income-earning opportunities: Poor households across most regions engage in seasonal agricultural labor to earn additional income during cash crop planting and harvesting. Historically, households from the Grand South would travel to northern and eastern Madagascar for the lucrative seasonal employment opportunities. However, rising transportation costs and declining agricultural labor wages have increasingly limited their ability to temporarily migrate, especially for households who live in more remote areas. Instead, many households have intensified activities with lower earning potential, such as artisanal gold mining, petty trade, and gathering wild fruit.

Fuel prices: Since early 2025, kerosene prices have sharply increased by a cumulative 32 percent (Figure 1), heavily impacting poorer households who rely on kerosene as an important fuel source for lighting and cooking. Diesel prices have declined by 10 percent but remain above average, contributing to high transportation costs and exacerbating existing inflationary pressures. 

Exchange rate: Madagascar’s economy is highly dependent on imported commodities, and currency depreciation remains a major contributor to inflation. During the first half of 2025, the MGA depreciated by 6.4 percent against the EUR, and by 8.6 percent year-on-year as of June 2025. Deteriorating current account balances, influenced by falling global prices for vanilla, cobalt, and nickel, alongside below-average vanilla and clove exports due to past damage and reduced global demand, are contributing to currency depreciation. However, in sharp contrast to historical trends, the MGA appreciated by 5.8 percent against the USD between January and August, and year-on-year by 3.4 percent. The appreciation is notable for fuel and imported rice, which are typically traded in USD.

Market supplies and food prices: Markets are currently well supplied with dried cassava and sweet potatoes, and prices are seasonally low amid the ongoing harvests. Domestically produced rice is also available in local markets, although prices have begun to seasonally increase with the progression of the post-harvest period. According to key informants in Antananarivo (the capital) and Toliara (a regional economic hub in the Grand South), prices for local rice and dried cassava have increased slightly since the beginning of August and are in line with typical seasonal price increases for the early post-harvest period.

Annual headline inflation: Headline inflation remains stubbornly high, primarily due to rising local food prices and the impacts of deteriorating transportation infrastructure on production and distribution costs. Annual headline inflation stood at 8.2 percent in June 2025, lower than the 9.5 percent peak at the beginning of the year, but well above the medium-term target level of 5 percent. Household income has not kept pace with inflation, continually eroding households’ purchasing power and constraining access to food and essential non-food items.

Humanitarian assistance: Based on available information from partner organizations as of late August, humanitarian food assistance distributions are ongoing in the Grand South and Grand Southeast. However, the scale of these distributions is limited and not sufficient to alter area-level food security outcomes. 

FEWS NET’s scenario development process is used to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

National Assumptions

• According to international forecast models, a timely rainy season start is expected between October and December.  Above-average rainfall is expected during these months in central and southern areas, with average rainfall across the rest of the country. January 2026 precipitation is anticipated to be average across most of the country and above-average in central areas, though uncertainty remains due to the long-range nature of the forecast. The likelihood of excessive rainfall events will likely increase with the start of the November tropical cyclone season and persist through January.
• Average to above-average numbers of cyclones are anticipated from October 2025 through at least January 2026, given the forecasted weak La Niña to neutral ENSO and weakly positive Subtropical and Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) conditions.
• Cash crop production and labor demand trends will be mixed through January 2026. Sharp price declines for green and processed vanilla, as well as below-average exports, are expected to negatively impact farming household income and reduce both demand for agricultural labor and the ability to pay wages in northeastern and eastern areas. However, average clove, lychee, and pepper production levels will likely support a typical seasonal increase in agricultural labor opportunities during the peak of the August-December season.
• Financial forecasts indicate that 8.4 percent annual inflation is expected in 2025. Headline inflation rates are expected to remain elevated through at least January 2026, driven largely by persistent local food price inflation.
• The MGA exchange rate is expected to weaken against the EUR but strengthen against the USD, partially offsetting the impacts of overall inflation.
• Global fuel prices are expected to decline substantially to below pre-Covid averages through January 2026, and the strengthening MGA/USD exchange rate will likely exert further downward pressure on fuel prices; however, food prices will likely remain elevated due to high and increasing transportation costs and localized supply deficits.

Sub-national assumptions for the Grand South

• Near-average cassava and sweet potato harvests are expected through September, with localized deficits in some areas with below-average access to inputs (seeds and other planting materials), pest infestations (locusts, fall armyworms), and cyclone-related damage (coastal Beloha). Food stocks are expected to deplete as early as October, 1-2 months earlier than normal.
• Near-average off-season rice harvests are expected in December. Rainfed area planted will be below average due to insufficient off-season rainfall, but irrigated area planted will be average.
• A seasonal increase in agricultural labor demand and incomes is expected with the onset of the rainy season and associated planting activities. However, household capacity to hire and wages are below average.
• Livestock herd sizes will remain below average. due to attacks from livestock bandits (dahalo) which are depleting herds, threatening food stocks, and prompting some households to partially or completely abandon livestock rearing. Banditry incidents are expected to intensify from October through January as the lean season progresses.
• Households are expected to be atypically dependent on non-agricultural labor, including petty trade, charcoal production and sales, and mining, through January. However, heightened competition for available opportunities is resulting in low incomes.
• Staple food prices are expected to increase seasonally as household deplete their food stocks and remain at above-average levels, with significantly above-average maize and bean prices driven by low market supply.
• Market supply for dried cassava and maize and beans will be average and below average, respectively, through the peak of the lean season. Seasonal road condition deterioration beginning in December will limit access and intermittently impact availability and prices throughout the rainy season. 

Sub-national assumptions for the Grand Southeast

• Average off-season rice and cassava harvests are expected between November and December.
• Recent harvests will support seasonally low staple food prices through October as households consume own-produced food stocks. Prices will rise as stocks deplete and demand for purchased food increases. Seasonal road deterioration, including localized flooding, will impact trade flows and market supplies in hard-to-reach areas, leading to low availability and high prices.
• Off-season rice production activities will seasonally increase agricultural labor demand and wages; however, household capacity to hire and wages are below average amid high labor supply.
• Clove, pepper, and lychee crop production will be average and facilitate seasonally increased agricultural labor demand; however, capacity to hire and wages will remain below average due to an atypically high labor supply and reduced financial capacity. 

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. 

Grand South: 

From August to September, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across the Grand South. Most households will largely meet their food needs with their own produced crops during this time and markets will be well-supplied with locally harvested crops at seasonally low prices. However, for many poor households, own-produced food stocks will be below average due to the need to sell a significant portion of this year’s harvest to service debts incurred during the historic drought, and they are likely to struggle to afford their essential non-food needs. Access to agricultural income will be further constrained by reduced crop sales from below-average maize and bean harvests and seasonally low agricultural labor opportunities. 

Food stocks are likely to deplete as soon as October for poor households whose harvests and food stocks were most constrained by the impacts of past weather shocks, leading to area-level deteriorations to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through the start of the peak lean season in January 2026. Households will become increasingly market-dependent as food prices continue to increase due to seasonal changes in supply. While temporary agricultural labor opportunities will seasonally increase, below-average hiring capacity and wages will limit income from this source. To earn additional income, some may intensify other activities such as petty trade, gathering and selling of wild fruits, and charcoal sales, though heightened competition will also limit this income source. Many poor households will struggle to mitigate consumption gaps with below-average incomes and are expected to resort to selling more animals than usual, reducing portion sizes and meal frequency, or purchasing food on credit. Areas that are more productive or well-connected with key regional markets (notably MG20, and parts of MG22 and MG27 livelihood zones), with greater and more diversified income-earning opportunities and relatively lower food prices, are expected to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January 2026.  

Grand Southeast: 

Area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across most of the Grand Southeast through September. Most households will be able to meet their food needs with own-produced food stocks and seasonally improved access to agricultural labor opportunities during the height of cash crop production. Though cash crop plants have now largely recovered from the damage inflicted by several years of severe cyclone strikes, persistent high inflation, below-average global prices of key cash crops, and ongoing household financial recoveries from past shocks will make it challenging for poor households to afford their non-food needs. Many poor households’ budgets will be under additional pressure from the start of the school year and traditional obligations, and are likely to resort to negative coping strategies such as eating less preferred foods or reducing health expenditures.

Between October and January 2026, area-level outcomes in Ikongo and Nosy Varika and parts of Befotaka (MG18 and MG22 livelihood zones) are expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as food stocks deplete and food prices rise in the lead-up to the peak lean season. This deterioration in outcomes is mainly attributable to the geographic isolation of these areas. Limited accessibility increases transportation costs, suppresses wages and labor opportunities, restricts market supply, and results in steeper price increases for both food and essential non-food items compared to other areas of the Grand Southeast. These impacts are especially pronounced during the rainy season when these areas become intermittently inaccessible. The off-season rice harvest occurring around December will offer only temporary relief, with food stocks only expected to last about a month for poor households and two months for better-off households. Income from agricultural labor during the rice harvest is expected to remain below average due to high local labor supply and reduced hiring capacity, further limiting households’ capacities to cope with rising prices. As a result, many poor households are likely to resort to negative coping strategies such as reducing meal portions and frequency or selling productive assets. In the rest of the Grand Southeast, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected from October to January 2026, as most households will be able to meet their food needs with remaining food stocks, temporary agricultural labor (rice and cash crop production), and other activities such as informal mining and petty trade.