Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to emerge as root and tuber stocks are exhausted

• Ongoing cassava and sweet potato harvests are improving household food access across the Grand South, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through September 2023.  Ongoing humanitarian food assistance in Beloha and Tshihombe is expected to maintain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes through September. As food stocks are exhausted, and households must rely on markets for food purchases, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge across most of the Grand South.  Between October and December, significant humanitarian assistance in Ampanihy, Beloha, and Tsihombe is expected to maintain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) through the rest of the scenario period. Some households in Betioky, Ambovombe, and Amboasary are likely already in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to localized erratic rainfall, pest attacks, water management challenges, and poor market access. However, these households do not comprise at least 20 percent of the population. 
• Households in the Grand Southeast will also have good access to root and tuber stocks through September 2023 and are likely experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Given significantly reduced incomes from cash crop production, the main source of income, households will struggle to meet their non-food needs. Once food stocks are depleted, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in remote, interior districts such as Ikongo, Nosy Varika, and Midongy-du-Sud. While ongoing HFA in Ikongo and Midongy-du_Sud is assessed to be contributing to Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes and preventing consumption gaps, there is no planned HFA for the Grand Southeast after September. Labor opportunities and wages remain low, limiting poor and very poor households' ability to cope with decreased incomes and seasonally increasing food prices. Off-season rice will temporarily improve household food access in December, but stocks will unlikely last more than a month. 
• Climate forecasts suggest increasing confidence in a strong El Niño by late 2023. El Niño is typically correlated with below-average rainfall in southern Madagascar with average rainfall in the north. Based on historical trends during El Niño years, the onset of the main rainy season between November and December will most likely be delayed with mixed performance, especially in the south. Irregular rainfall will most likely compound the impacts of reduced access to agricultural inputs on planted area, affecting income-earning among poor households who rely on agricultural labor opportunities. Close monitoring of rainfall totals and distribution will be required to assess the severity of adverse impacts on cropping conditions for the 2023/24 harvest. There is particular concern for areas in the Grand South that already experienced significant crop losses due to dry spells in 2023 and cyclones in 2022 and 2023. Government and donors should prepare now for rising food assistance needs in 2024.

Tuber and root season harvest: The main harvest for cassava and sweet potatoes is ongoing in the Grand South, improving household access to food through their own production and increased market supplies. According to the Ministry of Agriculture (MINAE), cassava production in the Androy and Atsimo Andrefana regions increased by more than 30 percent relative to last year (Figure 1). However, sweet potato production is estimated to have slightly decreased year-on-year by 16 percent due to low carryover of planting material. In the Grand Southeast, cassava and sweet potato production decreased relative to last year due to the losses of cuttings and vines during the cyclone season. Cassava production decreased by 40 percent in Atsimo Atsinanana, 28 percent in Vatovavy, and 18 percent for Fitovinany. 

Staple crop production: The main rice-producing areas, such as Vakinakaratra and Itasy in central Madagascar and Alaotra Mangoro region in the east, continue to supply areas with rice production deficits. Rice prices have increased as the season progresses, pushing poor households to choose cheaper substitute staples and adopt negative consumption-based coping strategies. Due to pest attacks, maize production decreased by 7 percent and 4 percent in Anosy and Androy regions. Bean production, meanwhile, dramatically decreased year-on-year by 59 and 94 percent in Atsimo Andrefana and Anosy regions, respectively, due to below-normal access to seeds.

Labor opportunities: Agricultural labor demand is below average in the Grand Southeast due to decreased cash crop production and is seasonally decreasing in the Grand South as root and tuber harvests are completed. Demand is also below normal due to the limited capacity of better-off households to hire labor. High transportation costs also limit poor households’ capacities to temporarily migrate for opportunities in sugar cane and peanut-producing areas, resulting in an oversupply of local labor. Wages are below normal at approximately 3000 Ar - 5000 Ar (0.65 -1.09 USD) a day, depending on the type of work. 

Livestock and prices: Good rainfall performance and improved pasture availability have improved livestock body conditions to fair to good. In addition, the seasonal increase in demand during the harvest period combined with decreased supply has resulted in increased livestock prices. Cattle prices have doubled compared to the same time last year. Between the lean season in March and the harvest period in August, FEWS NET price monitoring recorded increases of 121 percent for cattle and 94 percent for goats in Tuléar. 

Field assessment findings: FEWS NET conducted a field assessment in August in Tuléar II (Atsimo Andrefana, MG20) and Bekily (Androy, MG25) districts. This past production season marked the first good season in five years, thanks to average rainfall performance from December 2022 onwards. Markets were well-supplied with cassava and sweet potatoes, and prices for these crops have remained stable. Households are expected to have good access to food until stocks of roots and tubers are exhausted. Production levels remain constrained by households’ financial capacities to purchase seeds and cassava vines, given limited carryover after years of drought. Bean production (pois du cap) was far below normal as many households had consumed their seed stocks and could not afford new seeds. Pest infestations have also constrained production. The maize crop was impacted by isolated outbreaks of armyworms after heavy rains from cyclones Freddy and Cheneso in February 2023. While historically maize was not grown in MG20, some farmers close to the irrigation canals have begun growing maize, and they, too, reported issues with armyworms.

Prices of key staples, particularly maize and beans, have accordingly risen by 20 percent since the main harvest was completed in June. Imported rice is available only in MG20, and while it is cheaper, the quality is low compared to more expensive local rice. Local wages also remain constrained due to better-off households’ reduced hiring capacities from consecutive years of drought; compounding decreases in household purchasing power. Wealthy households own most of the land suitable for farming and rent out their land to poorer households for half of the production. Poorer households who did not cultivate enough during the past season rely on casual agricultural labor opportunities to purchase food at markets. Wages are typically one dollar or less per day per person and represent some of the lowest agricultural wages in Madagascar. 

Livestock production is only slowly rebounding in both zones, and herd sizes remain well below average. Households had sold off most of their livestock during the drought to minimize their consumption gaps. Additionally, dahalo banditry remains a significant threat to livestock owners, especially in Bekily. Even with improved incomes, households are hesitant to rebuild their herds. In rural areas, households are responsible for securing their herds, and only wealthy households have the capacity to arm themselves. 

Outcome indicators: According to the July IPC acute malnutrition indicators, the nutritional situation of households is precarious and fragile. Ambovombe Androy, Amboasary Atsimo, Betioky Atsimo, Befotaka, Nosy Varika, and Ikongo are currently the most affected districts with Serious levels of acute malnutrition (proxy GAM>=10% and Proxy GAM <15%). A slight improvement is expected in December with the arrival of off-season rice and lychee harvests. Beyond December, the situation will likely worsen through the lean season. Without significant humanitarian assistance, acute malnutrition levels in Nosy Varika and Ikongo will likely deteriorate to Critical ( Proxy GAM >=15%). Befotaka, Vangaindrano, Vondrozo, Manakara, Vohipeno, Ifanadiana, Mananjary, Ambovombe, Tsihombe, Beloha, Toliara II, Betioky Atsimo, Ampanihy Ouest, Amboasary, and Betroka are likely to have Serious (proxy GAM>=10% and Proxy GAM <15%) levels of malnutrition.

Humanitarian food assistance: According to the humanitarian assistance data at the SAMS cluster level, the number of beneficiaries is expected to decrease by December 2023 despite the number of people in need increasing as the lean season progresses, particularly in areas with the greatest accessibility challenges. During the rest of ML1  (August to September 2023), at least 25 percent of households in the following districts will be receiving 50 percent of their caloric needs from humanitarian food or cash assistance: Betroka, Beloha, and Tsihombe in the Grand South and Befotaka, Midongy-du-Sud, and Ikongo in the Grand Southeast. Without such assistance, these districts would be classified at least one IPC phase worse. For ML2, FEWS NET assesses outcomes would be projected as one IPC phase worse in the absence of humanitarian assistance in Ampanihy, Beloha, and Tsihombe districts in the Grand South. As of the writing of this report, no significant humanitarian food assistance has been planned and funded in the Grand Southeast. 

The assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for the Madagascar Food Security Outlook for June 2023 to January 2024 remain unchanged except for the following:

• Significant humanitarian food assistance is ongoing in the Grand South and is expected to last through December 2023. In the Grand Southeast there is planned and funded HFA for August and September, but as of the writing of this report, FEWS NET is not aware of any planned and funded HFA for the Grand Southeast from October 2023 through December 2023. 

Grand South: Households across most areas of the Grand South will continue to meet most of their kilocalorie needs through the consumption of their stocks of roots and tubers through September 2023. After several consecutive years of drought, households will likely struggle to meet their non-food consumption needs as limited access to income and the need to service their accrued debts limit non-food purchases, driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Additionally, some of the worst-off households are likely to use coping strategies such as consuming less-preferred foods or decreasing education spending to meet their consumption requirements. FEWS NET assesses that ongoing humanitarian assistance in Beloha and Tsihombe will maintain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes through September. However, districts in Beloha and Tsihombe with accessibility challenges that did not have good cassava and sweet potato harvests would likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the absence of humanitarian assistance. Betroka is the only district assessed to be experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) outcomes given particularly high levels of assistance (around 40 percent of the population are receiving 50 percent of their caloric needs from HFA) occurring during the root and tuber harvest. In Betioky, Ambovombe, and Amboasary, there are likely isolated areas of households already experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes; however, based on recent information from the field, these households are no longer assessed to comprise at least 20 percent of the population. Staple crop production in some areas of these districts was affected by erratic rainfall and pest attacks. Additionally, some areas of western Betioky had poor rice production due to portions of the Onilahy River silting up after the cyclone passages. No significant HFA is ongoing in these zones, so households experiencing more severe outcomes will likely resort to negative consumption-based coping strategies such as reducing meal portions and frequencies, consuming more wild foods, and selling any remaining marketable assets.

From October, the depletion of household food stocks will likely lead to a deterioration to widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in areas of the Grand South where humanitarian assistance is not planned. Agricultural labor opportunities will be limited until land preparation begins in November, making it more difficult for households to afford increasingly expensive food purchases. Demand for labor will also be below normal, given better-off households reduced hiring capacity. Households may sell atypically high numbers of small ruminants, engage in charcoal sales, or sell off remaining marketable assets to reduce their consumption gaps. FEWS NET assesses that humanitarian assistance will likely mitigate worse outcomes in Ampanihy, Beloha, and Tshihombe through the rest of the scenario period, with area-level Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes expected. These households will be able to meet their kilocalorie needs with the planned humanitarian assistance but will struggle to meet their non-food needs, such as agricultural inputs, health expenses, and traditional obligations.

Grand Southeast: As in the Grand South, households in most areas of the Grand Southeast will continue to have good access to food stocks through September 2023. They will be able to meet their food consumption needs but struggle to meet non-food needs given significantly below-average incomes from cash crop production, resulting in area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. (see the June Food Security Outlook for further information on cash crop production in the GSE). Ongoing HFA in the most remote districts of Befotaka, Midongy-du-Sud, and Ikongo is assessed to be mitigating worse outcomes and will maintain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes through September 2023. 

Across the region, outcomes are expected to deteriorate from October 2023 to January 2024 once food stocks are exhausted. Households with better harvests and market access will likely continue to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January 2024. The availability of agricultural labor opportunities from November, associated with the lychee campaign, will also support Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in better-off districts along the coast. However, income from this activity is expected to be below normal, with these households likely to eat less preferred foods or expand their access to income by engaging in informal mining or petty trade. In worst-off areas in Midongy-du-Sud, Ikongo, and parts of Nosy Varika, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely emerge amid below-average production and high food prices as households may have to sell off remaining marketable assets to reduce their consumption gaps. When off-season rice is harvested in December, food availability will temporarily increase for about a month for poor households and two months for better-off households. 

Recommended Citation: FEWS NET. Madagascar Food Security Outlook Update, August 2023: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to emerge as root and tuber stocks are exhausted.