Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Many poor households in drought-stricken southern areas have depleted or fully exhausted their maize reserves and have been relying on humanitarian assistance, supplemented by market purchases to meet their food needs. According to key informants, households are experiencing earlier than normal dependence on the markets given significant reductions in maize production.

In the cassava and sweet potato-producing areas of southern Madagascar, households have started accessing crops from the main harvest. Persistent food consumption gaps following the poor maize harvest led some households to harvest a portion of these crops earlier than normal, before they had reached full maturity, reducing yields. In addition, below average soil moisture across the southwest has negatively impacted crop development such that total production is expected to be well below average, with districts in Atsimo Andrefana and Androy worst-affected (Figure 1). Coastal Vatovavy Fitovinany region has also seen negative impacts as excess moisture and flooding during the 2022 cyclone season resulted in rotted roots. However, Anosy region, a major producer of roots and tubers for markets across the Grand South, saw relatively better rainfall throughout the year and should see near-average production.

The supply of food commodities like maize, rice, and cassava is around average in most markets across the country, except in the Grand South, where staple supplies are below average due to limited production this year and high transportation costs. These limitations are driving high prices and negatively impacting household purchasing power. In Toliara market in the Grand South, for example, the price of maize in July increased by 21 percent since June and remained 15 percent above last year and 103 percent above the five-year average. Local rice was 14 percent above last year and 48 percent above the five-year average. The price of dried cassava was 82 percent above last year and 211 percent above the five-year average (Figure 2). Disposable income continues to be eroded by increasing inflation rates across key commodities as well as other goods and services.

Although the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions is allowing for more movement and the possibility of seasonal labor migration, cyclone impacts in eastern Madagascar have damaged or completely destroyed major cash crops, including pepper, vanilla, clove, coffee, and fruit trees, with localized areas reporting total write-offs. A post-disaster assessment carried out in southeastern Madagascar by FAO and MINAE, in collaboration with the Madagascar Vulnerability Analysis Committee and the Food Security and Livelihoods Cluster reported that cash crops (banana, coffee, cloves, lychee, vanilla) were negatively affected, limiting employment opportunities and household income for the rest of the year due to the absence or sharp reduction in production. For example, across the regions, the percentage of households that reported total loss for coffee ranged between 9 and 63 percent, with the highest percentage of households reported in Nosy Varika and Vohipeno at 63 and 61 percent respectively. The average area damaged by the cyclones for vanilla was 76.5 percent while for clove was 49.4 percent and 73 percent of the cropped area for coffee was damaged. Northern Madagascar, which also saw excess rainfall from the passage of tropical storms, experienced significantly less crop damage, allowing for slightly below-normal labor demand to continue in these areas. Nevertheless, given the reductions in labor demand in the east, limited opportunities in the south, and high fuel prices constraining some poorer households in pursuing seasonal migration, agricultural labor income is below average.

Livestock sales and associated income are also below average. Poorer households, who often rely on poultry and usually have one or two goats, are left hardly with any livestock due to desperate sales in the previous years following consecutive years of drought. In the Ground South, below-average pasture availability because of the severe drought experienced earlier is driving below-average livestock body conditions and below-average livestock prices. Cattle and goat sales are currently seasonally low as they usually peak between December and February households are looking for income to purchase food and agricultural inputs during the peak of the lean season.

Humanitarian assistance plans have been extended at similar levels through October 2022. The assistance will cover a significant percentage of the population in Amboasary, Ampanihy, Betioky, and Bekily, covering 50 percent of kilocalorie needs in Amboasary, Betioky, and Bekily, and covering 100 percent of kilocalorie needs for targeted households in Ampanihy. mitigating worse outcomes in these areas.