Dry conditions lead to below-average staple production in South Madagascar

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through May in the Grand South and in cyclone-affected eastern and coastal areas. Outcomes are driven by severe weather shocks, resulting in livelihood losses and crop destruction, leaving many poor households highly market dependent amid limited food stocks and lost income sources. From June to September, outcomes are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in most areas as seasonal conditions and food availability improve.
• In the Grand South, cumulative rainfall deficits and atypically high temperatures since January 2026 have led to one of the driest seasons on record, critically damaging short-cycle crops (maize, beans) and contributing to below-average production and livelihood losses. As a result, food consumption gaps are expected to persist through May for the poorest households, with limited improvement thereafter.
• Food insecurity and malnutrition remain a critical concern in the Grand South despite early harvests. Recent rapid nutrition screenings conducted in February indicate Serious levels of global acute malnutrition (> 10 percent, using mid-upper arm circumference [MUAC]), particularly in Ampanihy Ouest, Bekily, Beloha, and Tsihombe. Limited resources have reduced treatment coverage and raised concerns for continued poor nutrition outcomes as households recover from the lean season. 
• In cyclone-affected zones in the east and along the coast, impacts continue to disrupt incomes and food access. Widespread crop destruction, prolonged flooding, loss of fishing assets, and damaged infrastructure have constrained household income and market functioning, with some households reporting extremely low food stocks, limiting their ability to meet basic food needs in the short to medium term.
• Market conditions are mixed: urban food access has improved, but farmer incomes remain constrained. Increased rice availability from early harvests has pushed prices down in major cities, improving purchasing power for market-dependent urban poor households. However, falling prices are likely to reduce income for rice-producing and market-oriented farmers in surplus areas, potentially constraining their ability to meet non-food needs.

This report provides an update to the February to September 2026 Food Security Outlook and March 2026 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of April 20, 2026.

• Exceptionally poor rainfall and above-average temperatures since January 2026 are driving below-average crop performance in southern Madagascar. Rainfall totals have remained far below normal (Figure 1), making late January to late March one of the driest periods on record across southern and east-central parts of the country. These rainfall deficits coincided with atypically high temperatures, with maximum temperatures in March around 2-4 degrees Celsius above average in western, southern, and southeastern Madagascar. As a result, crop conditions deteriorated substantially, particularly for short-cycle crops such as maize and beans, contributing to below-average yields and production.
• Nutrition indicators remain concerning in the Grand South and Grand Southeast. A rapid mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) mass screening conducted by the Nutrition Cluster in February 2026 in Ampanihy Ouest, Bekily, Beloha, and Tsihombe indicated a Serious nutritional situation, consistent with elevated vulnerability to food insecurity in these areas. Additionally, the Nutrition Cluster’s data on moderate acute malnutrition program admissions showed a downward trend between January and February 2026 due to limited resources for screening and treatments in the Grand South and Southeast. WFP treatment sites for malnourished children in Ambovombe and Ampanihy have closed due to lack of resources.
• Cyclone impacts continue to disrupt livelihoods and food access in affected eastern and coastal areas. A joint multisectoral needs assessment conducted in mid-March by the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and UNICEF found that more than half of households had no source of income. The assessment also found that over 60 percent of farming households lost staple crops (including cassava and maize) or cash crops (cloves, vanilla), or experienced prolonged flooding of lowland rice for more than four days. Sand-covered plots, seed losses, and damage to agricultural equipment and infrastructure further compounded these impacts. In coastal and riverine areas, the loss of canoes and fishing equipment reduced access to key food and income sources. Food stocks are also limited; households averaged around 20 days of food remaining at the time of survey. The assessment also noted extreme situations in some fokontany (communes) where only one day's worth of food reserves remains.
• Staple food markets show improved urban availability alongside deteriorating income for some producers. Early rice harvesting, continued rice imports, and carryover stocks increased rice availability in major urban markets (Antananarivo, Fianarantsoa, Ihosy, and Toliara), contributing to rice price declines since December 2025. Local rice prices declined from between 2,600-3,400 MGA/kilogram (kg) in early December to 2,000-2,625 MGA/kg by late March. These prices are 5-33 percent below last year and 16-49 percent below the five-year average in these markets. In Toamasina, local rice prices remained relatively stable after a temporary 6 percent increase immediately after the cyclone shock, supported by inflows from surplus areas. Imports continue to moderate rice prices nationally. While lower prices improve purchasing power for market-dependent urban households, they reduce cash income from rice sales for rice-producing and market-oriented farmers, particularly in surplus areas such as Alaotra Mangoro.
• Fuel market disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict have had limited price impacts. Fuel prices remained stabilized in April after authorities declared a one-month “state of energy emergency” to secure supply, maintain pump prices, and suspend the automatic fuel price adjustment mechanism. Consumer panic temporarily overwhelmed gas stations and contributed to short-lived fuel shortages in major cities.

Humanitarian food assistance

Lean season humanitarian food assistance resumed in late April after a temporary pipeline break in February-March. Following the interruption, assistance restarted across southern Madagascar, focusing on areas most severely affected by drought. An emergency package funded by the United States is supporting WFP in-kind food assistance scale-up. The package (valued at 11.65 million USD) enabled WFP to procure 7,100 metric tons of food, with the aim of improving food security outcomes for approximately 560,000 individuals. Initial commodity arrivals began on April 20 in Toliara, with the first consignment of 5,000 metric tons of sorghum arriving at the Port of Toliara, reportedly enough to support 288,000 people facing severe food insecurity and acute malnutrition.

Most of the assumptions that underpinned FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario for the Madagascar Food Security Outlook from February to September 2026 remain valid; however, the following updates have been made to incorporate new evidence:

• Given the cumulative rainfall deficits and erratic precipitation patterns observed in southern parts of Madagascar, local staple production will likely be below the five-year average, particularly short cycle crops like maize and pulses. Livestock sales will also likely continue to increase, constraining herd sizes and leading to below-average agricultural outcomes in affected areas. 
• Annual food inflation declined from 10 percent in February 2025 to 6.7 percent in January 2026, before rising to 7.2 percent in February 2026. Inflation is expected to continue decelerating during the projection period, supported in part by the main harvest period and anticipated stability of local fuel prices. Seasonally, staple food prices are expected to decline between April and September as May-June harvests stabilize market conditions. Prices are expected to remain above the five-year average.

Eastern cyclone-affected areas

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through May, with improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) likely from June to September. In districts affected by Tropical Cyclone Gezani, food security and livelihoods will likely remain severely compromised through May due to loss of income sources, destruction of staple and cash crops, and increasing market dependence. Poor households are expected to continue relying on negative coping strategies amid food consumption gaps, such as reducing meal frequency and dietary diversity, engaging in child labor, and seeking assistance from informal mutual aid networks. From June to September, outcomes are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), supported by the continued operations of the Toamasina port, which is expected to help sustain port-related income-earning opportunities and maintain relatively stable food access.

The Grand South

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through May, with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes becoming widespread from June. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through May due to below-average maize and bean production, persistent food gaps, and localized high acute malnutrition prevalence. Cumulative seasonal rainfall deficits and reduced area planted are constraining harvest volumes and limiting access to own-produced foods. By May, harvest-related labor demand and increased food availability are expected to reduce reliance on negative coping strategies; however, improvements will likely be short-lived, particularly in drought-affected areas.From June, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to become widespread with improved food availability from main harvests, particularly cassava and sweet potatoes. Nevertheless, poor households with limited livestock holdings, high debt burdens, and limited access to harvest gains in drought-affected areas are expected to continue to face challenges accessing food.

The Grand Southeast

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through September, with some households experiencing more severe outcomes in remote districts where market access constraints and cumulative shocks have eroded households’ ability to secure food. The lean season is expected to remain extended, and households will likely continue to rely on wild foods, market purchases, and limited income from weeding. While average rainfall supported crop development, some districts experienced crop losses in January/February due to water surges (e.g., Ifanadiana) or water shortages (e.g., Farafangana), following cyclones in other areas or heavy rains, according to the Food Security and Vulnerability Information System newsletter. Maize harvests are expected to gradually improve food access, though staple food prices are expected to remain above average. From June to September, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist, supported by the coming main season harvests and improved labor demand; however, seasonal price declines are expected to provide only modest relief, and purchasing power will likely remain constrained as wages remain below average amid continued competition for labor opportunities.

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

Increase in fuel prices

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: An increase in fuel prices to reflect the real price on international prices (which is 150 percent of current national level) will likely lead to general inflation and increase transportation costs. As a result, food security of urban households, particularly the poor, would likely worsen, and some cities could maintain or revert to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes throughout the projection period. This inflation will also likely exacerbate the situation in areas of concern such as the Grand South, the Southeast, and cyclone-affected areas in the east.

Many of the key sources of evidence utilized for FEWS NET’s February to September 2026 Food Security Outlook remain the same; however, new and additional sources of evidence are listed below.