Madagascar

Presence country
Madagascar
 Madagascar flag
Food Security Outlook
October 2023 - May 2024
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected in the Grand South amid insufficient humanitarian assistance
  • The ongoing strong El Niño is expected to result in average to above-average rainfall in the north. However, in southern Madagascar, erratic and below-average rainfall is expected to cause below-average agricultural production during the 2023/24 season. Rainfall in October was close to average, with localized deficits along the western coast, and some households began planting main-season crops. Close monitoring of rainfall totals and distribution will be required to assess the severity of adverse impacts on cropping conditions. In addition, the number of cyclones is currently predicted to be below average for the whole country through January and below average in southern Madagascar through April because of the positive decaying Southern Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) event. While the risk of a cyclone impact is reduced, the risk of catastrophic damage from an intense cyclone strike remains.
  • Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely ongoing across the Grand South, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected to emerge when most households deplete their stocks of roots and tubers between November and December. Very poor and poor households will have to rely on market purchases of food amidst seasonally increasing food prices. High food prices and below-average incomes will greatly constrain households from meeting their minimum kilocalorie needs, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through the peak lean season. Significant humanitarian assistance is expected to lead to improvements to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in Amboasary Sud and Betioky districts during the February to May projection period. Once harvesting begins in March, most households are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes due to seasonal improvements in food availability. Households will likely have difficulty meeting their non-food needs, given below-average incomes from agricultural activities and the need to service debts accrued during several consecutive years of severe drought. 
  • In the Grand Southeast, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely present as households have not yet depleted their stocks of roots and tubers. Once stocks are exhausted around November, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to occur in the most isolated districts with the least market access and cash crop production. Though households will have access to off-season rice crops starting in December, stocks are only expected to last through January at most. Off-season and main-season production is likely to be below average, given below-average and erratic rainfall forecasts. Improvements to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected during the February to May projection period in Befotaka, Nosy Varika, and Ikongo because of significant humanitarian assistance. By contrast, other districts in the Grand Southeast are expected to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through the scenario period. With seasonally improved access to incomes from clove harvesting and the availability of a wide range of fruits (notably lychees, breadfruit, jackfruit, and mangoes) for consumption and sale, households will be able to purchase enough food to meet their minimum food needs. 
  • Humanitarian food assistance is ongoing across much of the Grand South and Grand Southeast and is likely to increase as the scenario period progresses. Current plans indicate distributions unlikely to reach sufficient proportions of the population to mitigate worse area-level outcomes until levels of assistance increase in early 2024. During the peak of the lean season between January and March, significant humanitarian food and cash distributions are planned in several worst-off districts in the Grand South and the Grand Southeast. Improvements to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected between February and May in Amboasary Sud, Betioky, Befotaka, Nosy Varika, and Ikongo, as at least 25 percent of these districts' population will meet at least 50 percent of their kilocalorie needs with humanitarian food or cash assistance. 
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View All Madagascar Analysis
Food Security
Key Message Update Ongoing food assistance preventing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in southern Madagascar Madagascar September 2023
Food Security Outlook Update Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to emerge as root and tuber stocks are exhausted Madagascar August 2023
Key Message Update Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes emerging in Betioky district following a poor harvest Madagascar July 2023
Agroclimatology
Global Weather Hazards Flooding spreads into southeastern Africa, while parts of southern Africa remain abnormally dry Global February 17, 2023 - February 23, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Markets & Trade
Price Bulletin Madagascar Price Bulletin Madagascar October 2023
Supply and Market Outlook Southern Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook Southern Africa October 1, 2023
Bulletin des prix Madagascar Bulletin des Prix Madagascar October 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
Alert Strong El Niño will drive high needs across Southern Africa through early 2025 Southern Africa November 8, 2023
Food Security
Key Message Update Ongoing food assistance preventing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in southern Madagascar Madagascar September 2023
Food Security Outlook Update Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to emerge as root and tuber stocks are exhausted Madagascar August 2023
Key Message Update Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes emerging in Betioky district following a poor harvest Madagascar July 2023
Agroclimatology
Global Weather Hazards Flooding spreads into southeastern Africa, while parts of southern Africa remain abnormally dry Global February 17, 2023 - February 23, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Markets & Trade
Price Bulletin Madagascar Price Bulletin Madagascar October 2023
Supply and Market Outlook Southern Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook Southern Africa October 1, 2023
Bulletin des prix Madagascar Bulletin des Prix Madagascar October 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
Alert Strong El Niño will drive high needs across Southern Africa through early 2025 Southern Africa November 8, 2023
Food Security Classification Data View all Madagascar classification data
Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification (September 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile September 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification September 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification (August 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (August 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile August 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification August 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: August 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: August 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification (August 2020 - January 2021)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (August 2020 - September 2020) and medium term (October 2020 - January 2021) periods.

Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile August 2020 (.zip) (ZIP) Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification August 2020 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: August 2020 - September 2020 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2020 - January 2021 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: August 2020 - September 2020 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2020 - January 2021 (.kml) (KML)
Seasonal Calendar Seasonal Calendar

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.
Madagascar Seasonal Calendar
Remote Sensing Imagery Remote Sensing Imagery

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.

View all remote sensing imagery
Livelihood Zone Resources Livelihood Zone Resources
Madagascar Grand South Livelihood Baseline Profiles, November 2017 Madagascar Livelihood Zone Map and Descriptions, December 2013 Madagascar Livelihood Zone Map, March 2018
Madagascar 2017 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
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