Madagascar

Through April 2023, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to persist across the Grand South as humanitarian assistance continues to mitigate worse outcomes at the tail end of the lean season. With the onset of the main harvest, however, outcomes are expected to improve gradually in the coming months to broadly Stressed (IPC Phase 2), as household access to food improves significantly with maize, legume, sweet potato, and cassava harvests. Despite the positive rainfall year, some erratic rainfall distribution and limited access to seed have limited anticipated yields and harvests, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to re-emerge in the worst-affected areas of the Grand Southwest by July or August.

In the Grand Southeast, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are currently ongoing as cyclone recovery slowly proceeds. The upcoming rice harvest, due in May and June, will likely be below average in these areas due to the passage of Tropical Storm Freddy, but it will still provide some relief to food insecure households, as will root and tuber crops and some short-cycle crops that have been planted since Freddy hit. Nevertheless, isolated areas with limited market function and fewer opportunities to recover livelihoods, particularly in Befotaka, Midongy Atsimo, and Ikongo, are likely to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes should humanitarian assistance not continue past the rice harvest. In both regions, below-normal expected crop production will deplete quickly, resulting in an atypically early start of the annual lean season for most poorer households.

In most areas of the Grand South, rainfall performance during the 2022/23 season was near-average or even above average, supporting the development of crops for the agricultural season. However, limited access to seed for most poorer households reduced cropped area and anticipated harvests, while dry spells and erratic rainfall in localized areas of the Grand Southwest, as well as localized locust and army worm outbreaks, negatively impacted crop yields in affected areas. This year’s maize harvest is therefore expected to last 1-3 months, representing an improvement over recent drought years, but still below average. A similar trend is expected for root and tuber crops across not only the Grand South but also the Grand Southeast, where rice harvests have been somewhat impacted by recent storms but will remain only slightly below average.

At the national level, headline inflation rose to 12.4 percent in March, driven by the depreciation of the national currency as the import-dependent country continues to suffer a negative trade balance amid atypically high global prices. At the household level, above-average prices are putting pressure on budgets and limiting purchasing power, despite seasonal improvements in price. Markets in the Grand South are now beginning to see inflows of maize and legumes from the recent harvests, precipitating a seasonal decline in prices even as prices remain well above average given the shocks of recent years. However, households in the Grand Southeast are continuing to rely on market purchases to meet their food needs, with prices at their seasonal peak before the rice harvests begin. In localized areas with very poor accessibility following infrastructure damage from previous storms, prices are higher still as limits to market functions persist.