Madagascar

Southern Africa Subscribe to Madagascar reports
Madagascar
 Madagascar flag Madagascar flag
Latest analysis
Key Message Update January - May 2026 Erratic rains and flood risks likely to drive below-average harvests Download the report
  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expanding across the Grand South and parts of the Grand Southeast as the lean season peaks, driven by seasonally high food prices, below-average incomes, and erratic weather shocks. As of January, poor households remain heavily market-dependent while staple food prices remain above average and income-earning opportunities are atypically low. Although humanitarian food assistance continues to be delivered across Anosy, Androy, Atsimo Andrefana, and Atsimo Atsinanana, WFP has only reached 85 percent of targeted communes and is reducing ration sizes due to pipeline breaks.
  • High staple food prices and limited access to agricultural inputs are constraining food access and recovery prospects for poor households in the South. Seasonally reduced availability of dried cassava has driven price increases during the lean season, while maize and local rice prices remain above their five-year averages. Poor households in southern Madagascar, whose diets rely heavily on dried cassava supplemented by wild foods, are increasingly substituting cheaper imported rice to meet minimum food needs. At the same time, limited access to cassava and sweet potato cuttings and the high cost of agricultural inputs are restricting area planted, which is likely to negatively affect May-September harvests and prolong livelihood recovery.
  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through February and gradually improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) following harvests in March-April. Food security outcomes are likely to improve seasonally with the availability of maize and bean harvests beginning in March-April. However, below-average area planted and crop performance in parts of the Grand South will limit the extent of improvement, and many poor households will continue to face difficulty meeting essential non-food needs. In contrast, better crop production in the Southeast (MG 19) and Southwest Rice and Lima Bean (MG 20) livelihood zones is sustaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes throughout the outlook period.
  • Erratic rainfall and cumulative rainfall deficits earlier in the season are likely to result in below-average harvests in western and southern Madagascar, despite average rainfall forecasts for January-March. Cumulative rainfall deficits of roughly 25-80 percent of the 40-year average in parts of Toliara, Ihosy, and Fort-Dauphin, combined with erratic distribution, are expected to result in highly variable and generally below-average February-May harvests in affected areas, constraining seasonal food availability and agricultural labor income.
  • Flooding linked to heavy rainfall and the ongoing cyclone season has caused localized disruptions but is not expected to significantly alter area-level acute food insecurity outcomes. According to national disaster management authorities, recent flooding has affected approximately 3,500 people in Antananarivo, 1,500 in Amboasary, and 1,000 in Moramanga, with displacement reported primarily in Antananarivo. Limited flood-related damage to rice fields has been reported in Moramanga District (MG 12). While impacts remain localized and insufficient to change area-level food security outcomes, the likelihood of additional flooding through March could increase risks for poor households in low-lying urban areas and eastern rice-producing zones.
 Read the full analysis
More analysis View all Madagascar analysis Food security
Food Security Outlook Update Madagascar December 2025 - May 2026
Key Message Update Madagascar November 2025 - May 2026
Food Security Outlook Madagascar October 2025 - May 2026
Agroclimatology
Global Weather Hazards Global February 5, 2026 - February 11, 2026
Global Weather Hazards Global January 29, 2026 - February 4, 2026
Global Weather Hazards Global January 22, 2026 - January 28, 2026
Markets & trade
Price Watch Global December 30, 2025
Price Watch Global November 30, 2025
Price Watch Global October 31, 2025
Alerts / Special Reports
Special Report Global June 23, 2025
Special Report Global May 1, 2025
Alert Southern Africa November 8, 2023
Food security
Food Security Outlook Update Madagascar December 2025 - May 2026
Key Message Update Madagascar November 2025 - May 2026
Food Security Outlook Madagascar October 2025 - May 2026
Agroclimatology
Global Weather Hazards Global February 5, 2026 - February 11, 2026
Global Weather Hazards Global January 29, 2026 - February 4, 2026
Global Weather Hazards Global January 22, 2026 - January 28, 2026
Markets & trade
Price Watch Global December 30, 2025
Price Watch Global November 30, 2025
Price Watch Global October 31, 2025
Alerts / Special Reports
Special Report Global June 23, 2025
Special Report Global May 1, 2025
Alert Southern Africa November 8, 2023
Food Security Classification data View all Madagascar Food Security Classification data
Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (December 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile December 2025 (.zip) Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification December 2025 (.geojson) Near Term Projection: December 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Near Term Projection: December 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml) Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (November 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile November 2025 (.zip) Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification November 2025 (.geojson) Near Term Projection: November 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Near Term Projection: November 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml) Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Current (October 2025) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (October 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile October 2025 (.zip) Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification October 2025 (.geojson) Current Situation: October 2025 (.png) Near Term Projection: October 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Current Situation: October 2025 (.kml) Near Term Projection: October 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml)
Seasonal Calendar

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.
Seasonal Calendar image showing harvest and rainy periods for Madagascar.
Satellite-derived products map

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.

View all satellite-derived products
Livelihood Zone resources Madagascar Grand South Livelihood Baseline Profiles, November 2017 Madagascar Livelihood Zone Map and Descriptions, December 2013 Madagascar Livelihood Zone Map, March 2018
Madagascar 2017 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
Get the latest food security updates in your inbox Sign up for emails

The information provided on this Website is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Department of State or the U.S. Government.