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Favorable 2013/14 rains forecast

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Lesotho
  • September 2013
Favorable 2013/14 rains forecast

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook Through December 2013
  • Key Messages
    • This peak of the dry season in September has been slightly drier than usual. However, forecasts suggest average to above-average October-March rains.

    • Stable or increasing incomes, stable food prices, and ongoing poverty reduction programs facilitate relatively average to good food access sufficient to meet minimum food needs (IPC Phase 1: Minimal) at least through December.




    No significant anomalies of concern observed.

    Projected Outlook Through December 2013

    Rains in Lesotho begin around October/November or November/December and are strongest between January-March. The 2013/14 rains are forecast to be near average for Lesotho. Rains are expected to start near the climatological average.

    Maize meal prices through August have been relatively stable since the good 2012/13 harvest, supported in part by near-average regional maize supply. Staple food prices are likely to increase once the lean season begins; however, rates and magnitudes of increases are expected to be within a typical, seasonal range. In addition, the Lesotho Vulnerability Assessment Committee reports increases in income that suggest average to above average purchasing power.

    Based on these LVAC results, government and partner poverty reduction programming, continuing price stability, and favorable forecasts, FEWS NET projects that Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes will continue through at least December.

    This outlook would worsen in the event of any instability of staple food prices or the local currency (Maluti).  


    Figures Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2


    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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