Low food access driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until 2025 harvest

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected between October 2024 to March 2025 in the south, southwest, and some eastern parts of Lesotho, including areas of high concern (Mafeteng, Mohale’s Hoek, Maseru, Quthing, and Qacha’s Nek districts). Many households depleted their food stocks from the 2024 harvest atypically early (July/August) and are expected to have below-average purchasing capacity constrained by above-average staple food prices and below-average incomes. Poor households who face difficulties accessing food and income are engaging in Crisis coping strategies such as selling productive assets, consuming retained seed stocks, and reducing non-food expenditures (e.g., purchase of agricultural inputs), which may limit households’ future coping capacity. As the harvest becomes available in April/May, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to emerge.
• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in the rest of the country as poor households will be able to meet food needs from a combination of purchases and limited supplies of previously harvested stocks. However, most will likely continue to have difficulty meeting their non-food needs.
• FEWS NET projects 250,000 to 499,999 people to be in need of humanitarian food assistance at the height of the lean season period around February/March, with increased populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) expected in southern, southwestern, and some eastern areas. Despite available seasonal agricultural labor, household income is expected to remain below average due to high competition, low wage rates, and reduced capacity for middle and better-off households to hire and pay wages.  
• The 2024/25 season is expected to be average, including average rainfall, area planted, crop development, and harvest. The start of the main harvest in April 2025 is expected to drive significant improvements in food consumption.

About two-thirds of Lesotho’s 2.4 million people live in rural areas. Agriculture is the backbone of the rural economy, with most people in rural areas relying on agriculture as an important source of income. Lesotho’s main agricultural zone is the lowland area in the west (parts of Butha Buthe, Leribe, Berea, Maseru, and Mafeteng districts). Southern Lesotho is often more at risk of the impacts of drought and land degradation from erosion, particularly along the Senque River Valley areas of Mohale’s Hoek, Quthing, and Qacha’s Nek. In the mountains and foothills, wool and mohair from sheep and goats, along with cattle, are an important source of income. 

Maize is Lesotho’s most important crop, followed by beans, sorghum, wheat, and peas. Due to the mountainous terrain, however, only 10 percent of Lesotho’s land is arable. Cereal production provides less than 30 percent of the country’s staple food needs, with most food imported from South Africa. 

Most households obtain food from a combination of cropping, livestock, and purchases using income from labor in agriculture and income from migrant work in South Africa, particularly mining. A third of agricultural households are headed by women. Almost 50 percent of the population earns income through crop cultivation or animal husbandry; however, in the poorest households crops are a relatively small source of income. Most Lesotho smallholder farmers produce for their own consumption, with some large commercial farms mostly concentrated in the northern lowlands. 

Lesotho’s main agricultural season is from October to May, with a lean season from December through February (Figure 1). Rainfall from November to February is key for crop production, while rainfall in January and February is critical for harvest potential as staple cereals are often in their reproductive and grain-filling stages. From February to March, the early green harvest occurs, with the main dry harvest from April until July. A small winter season involves the planting of mostly wheat and peas around May until July, with the winter harvest around November and December. Lesotho is susceptible to weather shocks, particularly El Niño, which is associated with below- to significantly below-average rainfall during the October to March rainy season, negatively impacting summer harvests and livestock production. 

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Lesotho September 2024 Key Messages Update
• Lesotho June 2024 Remote Monitoring Report
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis 

National

• Lesotho’s consumption of maize is 272,000 MT, but the estimated 2023/24 harvest is only 52,000 MT. Consequently, Lesotho is likely to import a significant proportion of its needs from South Africa, where prices for wholesale white maize were 41 percent higher in September compared to the previous year. 
• Lesotho’s maize meal prices in September were between 10 to 20 percent higher than last year, and 20 to 40 percent higher than the five-year average due to the high costs of maize imported from South Africa. 
• In September, yearly food inflation was 9 percent, within the 8 to 11 percent range of the previous 10 months (Figure 2). Food inflation is attributable to poor harvests, staple food shortages, and rising regional demand.
• Labor wage rates and income for poor households are likely significantly below average as better-off households have limited capacity to hire labor due to below-average capital.
• For the current season, the government has an improved revenue base and is subsidizing fertilizer and seeds, herbicides, and pesticides. However, the amount and distribution of subsidized inputs tends to be limited, with no current clear indications of increases. Seed demand is expected to be above average as most households have likely consumed retained seed stocks.
• Slightly below-average vegetation in the mountains and upper Senque River Valley may be negatively affecting sheep and cattle (Figure 3).

National assumptions

• The October 2024 to March 2025 rainy season is expected to be average with a normal onset. The favorable rainfall is expected to improve soil moisture, pasture, and water availability in rivers, dams, and streams through May 2025 (Figure 4).
• High import prices of maize grain from South Africa are expected to continue, contributing to above-average maize meal market prices through March 2025 (before the next harvest expected in April/May 2025) (Figure 5).
• Wage rates and income for poor households will likely remain constrained by an increased supply of labor, poor liquidity, and reduced/no in-kind payments due to depleted harvested stocks among better-off households.
• Due to exhausted food stocks from the failed and poor harvests, households are expected to be heavily market dependent; however, below-average incomes and high food prices are expected to limit household purchasing capacity.

Senque River Valley 

• Following the atypically long lean season since July/August, poor households are expected to continue having difficulties accessing food, with conditions further deteriorating through the peak lean season period in February/March 2025. Poor households are expected to continue engaging in Crisis coping strategies such as selling productive assets, reducing expenditure on agricultural inputs, and withdrawing children from school in order to purchase food.

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumption

• Some poor household members are earning cash and food payments for work on community projects as part of the government’s drought-response program which was announced in May and is targeting 180,000 people until December.
• WFP reports it has 4 million USD to “assist 50,400 people for three months with both cash and vouchers in selected villages in four of the most affected districts.” However, WFP appealed for funding to “assist 272,000 people, covering 39 percent of the Government appeal target, during the lean season from October 2024 to March 2025.” 
• Some organizations such as World Vision through the ECHO-funded intervention have begun localized responses in selected districts in response to the El Niño impacts. World Vision is expected to distribute food packages to 242 households in 60 villages in Maseru, Thaba-Tseka, Leribe, and Mokhotlong from October to December 2024.

Southern, southwestern, and some eastern areas: 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected from October 2024 to March 2025. An atypically high and increasing number of people are experiencing a prolonged lean season, which started early as households depleted their stocks after poor and failed 2024 harvest. Households are will rely heavily on markets through at least early 2025 (before the onset of the next harvests), but high food prices and below-average incomes will constrain access to adequate food and dietary diversity. Humanitarian food assistance needs will gradually increase and households are expected to engage in Crisis coping strategies such as selling productive assets (e.g., farming implements) and reducing non-food expenditures (such as health or education).  

Between April and May 2025, food consumption and food security outcomes are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as households access expected near-normal harvests following the forecasted average rainy season and the expected improved access to agricultural inputs. 

Central, northern, and urban areas: 

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to prevail from October 2024 to May 2025 across central, northern, and urban areas as households continue to access food from markets and consume the limited remaining food stocks from harvests. However, households are likely to have difficulties meeting non-food needs due to low incomes and increased expenditure on agricultural inputs, among other items.

National 

Poor rainfall performance across Lesotho

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Poor rainfall performance (which may be characterized by erratic and poor rainfall distribution, prolonged dry spells, and flooding) may result in a reduction of area planted, reduced yields, crop failure/poor production, crop damage/destruction, and reduced agricultural labor availability and incomes for poor households. This would likely expand food insecurity outcomes, with more people experiencing and/or transitioning to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from the south, and additional areas of the center and north.

Increased availability of humanitarian assistance 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Availability of widespread humanitarian food assistance in the southern, southwestern, and some eastern parts of Lesotho will likely help households to meet their minimum energy needs and improve food security outcomes from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, households may still have below-average incomes which would prevent them from meeting their minimum non-food needs.