Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Land preparation activities for the 2021/22 agricultural season are underway and will continue through December. As rainfall is expected to be above average between October 2021 to March 2022, this is expected to facilitate household engagement in the season. This is expected to drive average to above-average area planted and production prospects. This is also likely to drive higher than average access to agriculture-related labor opportunities. However, this year, significant increases in international prices for fertilizers, herbicides, and insecticides will restrict engagement in planting.  The strong value of the domestic currency and government agricultural input subsidies will likely mitigate significant increases in domestic input prices. COVID-19 related movement restrictions at the border will prohibit farmers from crossing into South Africa, where poor households typically source cheaper inputs. Overall, area planted for the 2021/22 season is expected to be normal.

Due to the favorable rainfall seen in the 2020/21 season, pasture and water availability for livestock are generally available. These favorable conditions are expected to prevail throughout the projected period. Livestock body conditions and market supply are generally favorable. Although, livestock prices remained at last year levels due to reduced market demand. Farmers are expected to sell fewer animals than normal due to low demand as households do not have sufficient income for livestock purchases.

As of September, maize meal prices in Maseru were 10 percent higher than the same time last year and nearly 20 percent above the five-year average (Figure 1). The current increases are due to the price transmission from the high maize prices in South Africa. Prices in Lesotho are near to prices seen during the 2016/17 drought due to the price transmission from South Africa, where prices are well above average. Maize meal prices are projected to remain above last year and well above the five-year average (Figure 2). While prices will remain elevated, there are not expected to breach prices seen during the 2016/17 drought.

Economic activities in Lesotho contracted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but October marked the end of the 3^rd Wave. During the last week of September, the government eased the COVID-19-related restriction measures to level three on the five-tier ranking system. Cross-border travel is permitted for certain classes of travelers, including businesspeople, migrant workers, pensioners, students, and diplomats, but travel for tourism and leisure remains restricted.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected from October through the next harvest expected in April/May. This is due to above-average food prices, which is driving below-average purchasing power. With the harvest beginning in April, food security is expected to improve with households consuming food from own production. This will drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during the harvest period.