Food insecurity persists due to low incomes and high staple food prices

• Following an earlier-than-normal start to the lean season, 100,000 to 250,000 people are expected to be in need of humanitarian food assistance during the October to January period. Area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through January 2025 in the southern districts, particularly Mafeteng, Mohale's Hoek, Qacha’s Nek, and Quthing, which were the hardest hit by the El Niño-induced drought. Acute food insecurity in Lesotho is being driven by drought-related low harvests, high staple food prices, and below-average incomes. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across the remainder of the country through January 2025.
• Households are likely to deplete their stocks early due to the below-average harvest amidst minimal off-farm casual labor opportunities. Harvests for most households are estimated to last about three months (until the end of July), after which households will rely on market food purchases to meet their food needs. Above-average prices for imported cereals from South Africa will also contribute to lower-than-normal household purchasing capacity.
• A normal start to the 2024/25 agricultural season is expected due to the forecasted timely onset of rainfall. Seasonal agricultural labor opportunities from land preparation and planting are expected to be normal. However, wage rates are likely to be below normal due to increased competition for labor opportunities and lower-than-normal liquidity among middle and better-off households as more poor households try to engage in casual labor activities to earn income for staple purchases.

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Latest Lesotho May 2024 Key Message Update 
• Previous Lesotho February 2024 Remote Monitoring Report
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology 
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis

About two-thirds of Lesotho’s 2.4 million people live in rural areas. Agriculture is the backbone of the rural economy, with most people in rural areas relying on agriculture as an important source of income. Lesotho’s main agricultural zone is the lowland area in the west (parts of Butha Buthe, Leribe, Berea, Maseru, and Mafeteng districts). Southern Lesotho is often more at risk to the impact of drought and land degradation from erosion, particularly along the Senque River Valley areas of Mohale's Hoek, Quthing, and Qacha's Nek. In the mountains and foothills, wool and mohair from sheep and goats, along with cattle, are an important source of income. 

Maize is Lesotho’s most important crop (yielding 400-800 tons per hectare), followed by beans, sorghum, wheat, and peas. Due to the mountainous terrain, however, only 10 percent of Lesotho’s land is arable. Cereal production provides less than 30 percent of the country’s staple food needs, with most food imported from South Africa. 

Most households obtain food from a combination of cropping, livestock, and purchases using income from labor in agriculture and income from migrant work in South Africa, particularly mining. A third of agricultural households are headed by women. Almost 50 percent of the population earns income through crop cultivation or animal husbandry; however, in the poorest households’ crops are a relatively small source of income. Most Lesotho smallholder farmers produce for their own consumption, with some large commercial farms mostly concentrated in the northern lowlands.

Lesotho’s main agricultural season is from October to May, with a lean season from December through February. Rainfall from November to February is key for crop production, while rainfall in January and February is critical for harvest potential as staple cereals are often in their reproductive and grain-filling stages. From February to March, the early green harvest occurs, with the main dry harvest in April to June. A small winter season involves the planting of mostly wheat and peas around May to July, with the winter harvest around November and December. Lesotho is susceptible to weather shocks, particularly El Niño, which is associated with below- to significantly below-average rainfall during the October to March rainy season, negatively impacting summer harvests and livestock production.

National

• Some poor and very poor households with significant crop losses due to El Niño dry spells are already relying on food purchases from local markets earlier than normal.
• Prices of maize meal (the main staple) are similar to prices last year and the five-year average: a 12.5 kg bag of maize meal retailed at 6 USD in May 2024 compared to 5.96 USD in 2023. However, prices have been increasing gradually since January.
• Casual labor opportunities are significantly below average because middle and better-off households, who usually hire poor and very poor households and pay cash or in-kind, have experienced below-average production due to dry spells.
• Winter precipitation is lower than normal, likely impacting production of winter wheat, pea, and household vegetables.

Senque River Valley

• With the drought more intense around southern Lesotho’s Senque River Valley, causal labor opportunities and income are below average, limiting poor households' access to staples via market purchases.

Humanitarian Food Assistance

• According to the Lesotho Vulnerability Assessment Committee (LVAC), preliminary estimates of 60,000 MT of staple cereals are required to cover household deficits until around October and the start of the 2024/25 rainy season.
• To address drought-related food insecurity, the government has allocated 5.3 million USD for cash or food payments for 180,000 vulnerable people to participate in community-based work on projects such as road maintenance or grazing lands protection between June and December.

National assumptions

• Below-average production will likely result in an atypical early start of the lean season, likely by July/August. The preliminary LVAC estimate is that maize production is 52 percent below average due to the impacts of the El Niño drought and reduced planted area due to a scarcity of fertilizer (Figure 2). Most poor households harvested between 50 to 150 kg of maize, which typically covers up to three months of food needs.
• Retail staple food prices are expected to increase due to below-average local production and higher prices for imported maize, compromising household purchasing capacity and food access.
• An increase in maize meal prices will also likely constrain household purchasing capacity and may lead to poor households engaging in consumption-based coping strategies.
• International climate forecast models indicate that a La Niña will likely be the dominant ENSO state at the start of the 2024/25 rainy season. Based on dynamical forecasts, the start of the 2024/25 rainy season from October to December 2024 is likely to be above-average in Lesotho, and improve the availability of agricultural labor opportunities from October through March. However, incomes may remain below average due to the reduced capacity of better-off households to pay for labor.
• Near-normal livestock conditions are expected in most parts of the country.

Senque River Valley 

• On- and off-farm labor activities are likely to remain below average due to low liquidity among better-off households, who typically provide labor opportunities, following the below-average 2024 harvest.
• Households are likely to remain dependent on market purchases for much of the outlook period, amid lower than normal purchasing capacity.

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumption

• Humanitarian food assistance needs are expected to increase throughout the projection period and peak in early 2025, following the early depletion of food stocks by most households. Due to below-average labor opportunities and incomes, poor purchasing capacity will likely limit poor households' access to staple foods on the market where prices are expected to remain above average. Needs are projected to be higher than last year and the five-year average. The LVAC has recommended immediate conditional and unconditional humanitarian assistance for all rural households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes and urban populations with below Minimum Essential Expenditure.
   

Lesotho’s staple food prices are slightly higher than average and are expected to face upward pressure as the lean season approaches due to higher import prices from South Africa, declines in local production, and high regional demand following El Niño's impacts on the 2023/24 season (Figure 3). Most poor and very poor households that experienced significant crop losses are currently relying on food purchases from local markets; this increase in staple prices will keep purchasing capacity lower than normal and constrain food access throughout the projection period.

Southern areas: Very poor and poor households in the southern parts of Lesotho are likely to experience atypically early depletion of harvested stocks and reduced income from casual and off-farm labor. Between July and September, very poor and poor households will heavily depend on market purchases in a context of low purchasing capacity due to below-average incomes and elevated grain prices. This will be exacerbated by the dry winter growing conditions and below-average planted area for wheat and peas, with limited labor opportunities due to increased mechanization of this farming activity. The government has however promoted planting by subsidizing wheat and peas seeds at 70 percent and fertilizers at 80 percent. Area-level Crisis (Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge atypically early as households are likely to have difficulties in meeting their food and non-food needs by July/August. The population in need will likely peak in January 2025 as more households deplete their food stocks, while high staple food prices and limited access to income-earning opportunities keep household purchasing capacity lower than normal. The forecasted La Niña during the 2024/25 agricultural season starting in October/November will likely provide favorable conditions for agriculture. In Southern Africa, La Niña tends to be associated with average to above-average rainfall. A timely start to the 2024/25 cropping season in Lesotho, is likely to result in an increase in agricultural labor opportunities such as land preparation, planting, and weeding. In the mountains, households will likely try to plant early in order to maximize the length of the growing season. However, because many poor and very poor households are expected to have earned little income from off-season activities, household purchasing capacity will likely be lower than normal, which may impact their access to agricultural inputs like seed and fertilizer following a below average 2024 harvest. 

Central/northern areas: Across the rest of Lesotho (central, northern, and urban areas), Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected from June through January 2025. Households are likely to engage in their normal livelihood activities and will have access to food from various sources such as own-production and market purchases. They will, however, likely have challenges in meeting their non-food needs due to below-average purchasing capacity and are likely to engage in coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes such as borrowing money and purchasing food on credit. According to the 2024 LVAC report, households in urban areas have the economic capacity to meet their minimum essential food needs.
 

National

Event: A late and erratic start of the 2024/25 agricultural season.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: This would likely hinder crop production activities in affected areas. Poor households would have less access to agricultural labor opportunities. With many poor households likely looking to repay debts, this would likely also cause poor households to face increased difficulty in borrowing to access food. A poor start to the 2024/25 agricultural season would likely result in a rise in the number of households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, particularly in the southern areas including Mafeteng, Mohale’s Hoek, Qacha’s Nek, and Quthing. Below-average rainfall would also likely lead to less improvement in pasture and water conditions than anticipated, negatively affecting livestock conditions. In worst-affected areas, anticipated improvements in livestock conceptions and births during the rainy season could be limited.

Event: Adequate and timely response of humanitarian assistance.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Timely and adequate response of humanitarian assistance would improve food access for poor and very poor households and potentially reduce the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.