Famine Early Warning Systems Network

According to FAO, the forecast 2020/2021 cereal harvest was 13 percent greater than the 2016-2020 average, and 23.5 percent greater than last year. As the above-average harvest concludes, most households are engaging in off-season activities for  cash and in-kind payments. The main income sources through September will include remittances, crop sales, off-farm casual labor, petty trade, construction, traditional beer brewing, and other self-employment activities.

Currently, crop sales are largely benefiting middle and better off households as very poor households typically have smaller yields and tend to keep their harvest for self-consumption. However, very poor households are benefiting from in-kind payments of grain for labor. Since the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions, income from petty trade activities is increasing, particularly for households near urban areas where the market is more accessible. However, petty trade and market activity have not yet returned to typical levels, and incomes are still below average for most households.

Following the end of the rainy season in March, the reconstruction of damaged housing and infrastructure from flash floods and heavy rainfall is likely to improve construction-related labor opportunities. However, wage rates are likely to be below average as poor households will likely not have the capacity to pay normal wage rates. Typical of most dry seasons, some households are earning income through traditional beer brewing. According to key informants, this activity is slightly above last year's levels, but households are reportedly hesitant to use their harvest for brewing following three previous poor harvests.

Remittances to Lesotho have been gradually improving since April as the South African economy reopened. According to key informants, many migrants are reportedly traveling back to South Africa for seasonal and permanent employment. However, the flow of remittances remains below average as the economy is yet to return to pre-COVID-19 levels.  Additionally, the need for a valid COVID-19 test to cross the border is limiting many informal migrants and resulting in illegal border crossings.

As of June 22, the seven-day average for confirmed COVID-19 cases is around 30 after ranging between zero and six since April. Although monitoring is still needed, there is a possibility of a new wave of COVID-19 infections, as evidenced by trends in other countries in the region. However, another COVID-19 wave in Lesotho is likely given the sharp increase of confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Africa. In mid-June, South Africa moved into lockdown Level 3 as the seven-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases increased from around 1,200 cases in early May to around 11,800 by June 22. However, medical analysts are recommending more restrictions to control the rise in confirmed cases better. Given the dependence on cross-border trade and travel between Lesotho and South Africa, a rise in COVID-19 cases is likely. If Lesotho undertakes another lockdown, it will likely negatively impact the economy and general livelihoods, particularly in urban areas. Additionally, the increase in COVID-19 control measures in South Africa is expected to impact Basotho migrant workers and remittances negatively. 

Overall, household food consumption has improved following the 2020/2021 harvest. Very poor households are expected to be consuming their own harvest until August. Although off-farm income is likely to be below average, very poor households will be able to meet their basic non-food needs through August as they are less reliant on markets for staple purchases. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are therefore expected between June and August though some worst-affected households are still expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In September, as own stocks deplete, households will prioritize purchasing staple foods, driving area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Although maize meal prices are expected to stabilize, prices will likely begin increasing from October as the lean season approaches, reducing household purchasing power. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely in Lesotho between October and January 2022.