Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes expected during the post-harvest period

• Below-average cereal production, reduced income from casual labor, below-average remittances, and projected above-average maize meal prices will drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from June to September among poor farming households. As food security conditions deteriorate, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are projected from October to January.

• Based on the El Niño forecast, below-average rainfall is the most likely outcome during the early portion of the Southern Africa rainy season between October 2018 to January 2019. Based on this forecast for the upcoming season, the availability of labor is expected to be lower than normal during the outlook period, and increased competition for work is expected to push down wage rates.

Poor households typically receive food from own-production, in-kind labor, and through market purchases in June as well as income from harvesting labor, selling crops, selling livestock, and off-farm labor opportunities. Households are currently carrying out these activities and accessing these food sources, however the level of in-kind payment is reduced due to the below-average harvest. Very poor and poor households depend on agriculture labor as their main source of income and with the expected below-average harvest, this will negatively affect households’ ability to purchase food. Even though the current crop estimates are below-average herds of livestock were not much affected since water and pastures are available.

Although the 2017/18 official crop estimates are not yet out, the cropping season was not as good as the previous season. Cumulative rainfall for high production areas was near or above average for the season, but distribution was erratic. Significant dry spells in January caused significant moisture stress at a critical growing stage for crops, and snow and frost further damaged maize crops (GEOGLAM, Crop Monitor for Early Warning, June 2018). In March, heavy rains, flash flooding, and hailstorms were reported to have damaged crops in Quthing, Mafeteng, Mohale’s Hoek, and Thaba-theka districts. Rainfall distribution was very irregular in comparison to the long-term average within several provinces that make up the more productive Foothills and Northern Lowlands livelihood zones (Figures 1, 2, & 3).

The most likely ENSO phase for October 2018 to January 2019 is El Niño, but there is some uncertainty in this forecast, particularly regarding Indian Ocean SSTs. Based on the El Niño forecast, below-average rainfall is the most likely outcome during the early portion of the Southern Africa rainy season between October 2018 to January 2019. Based on this forecast for the upcoming season, the availability of labor is expected to be lower than normal during the outlook period, and increased competition for work is expected to push down wage rates.

April maize meal prices are still stable and below last year and the five-year average. This trend is projected to continue until October/November, when land preparation activities begin and market demand increases. In typical years poor households rely on food purchases for consumption, but this year households will need to rely on market purchases earlier and for more time than usual. The projected higher maize meal prices after November could constrain household purchasing power for the remainder of the consumption year and result in survival and livelihood protection deficits. Remittances are another important source of income for many households throughout the country and will help to fill the gap of basic food needs.

From June to September Stressed (IPC Phase 2) area outcomes are projected as food security is expected to deteriorate among poor households that experienced a below-normal harvest. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected from October to January among poor farming households.