Food security outcomes to improve with the 2022/23 main harvest through September

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing in deficit-producing areas, including the southern lowlands, foothills, and the Senqu river valley. The peak of the lean season continues, and households face reduced purchasing power amidst increased dependence on purchases and below-average income levels. However, improvements are expected between April and May when households begin to access the main harvest from the 2022/23 cropping season. Following the harvest, households are therefore expected to transition into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September.

• Cumulative rainfall for the 2022/23 cropping season has been above average across the country. However, between November and December persistent heavy rainfall has caused nutrient loss through leaching for some crops and hampered farm management activities like weeding. Moreover, despite above-average rainfall, the area planted for the current cropping season is nearly 30 percent below normal due to high seed and fertilizer costs. As a result, overall crop production for the 2022/23 season is expected to be below average.

• Across the country, maize and sorghum crops are in the early to the late reproductive stage (tasseling and grain filling), depending on their planting dates. By the end of March, consumption of the green harvest is expected to improve household food access leading to improvements in food security outcomes.

Above-average cumulative rainfall has been recorded across the country since the beginning of the 2022/23 cropping season. Despite this, the area planted is nearly 30 percent lower than normal due to the high costs of fertilizer, seeds, and fuel needed to operate farm machinery. The Lesotho government typically provides subsidized inputs to farmers, but this year the number of seeds procured was much lower than average due to high global input prices, and they were delivered slightly later than normal. Across the country, the crop stand looks generally good, raising better prospects for yields. In November and December, some parts of the country received persistent heavy rainfall that damaged roads and bridges. For crops, the heavy rains caused nutrient loss through leaching, leaving some of them nutrient deficient. Furthermore, in these areas, this persistent heavy rainfall has hampered farm management activities like weeding. In general, the leaching of soil nutrients from crops will have a minor impact on maize and sorghum production. But, overall production of maize and sorghum is expected to be below average, given reductions in area planted.

Across the country, maize and sorghum crops are in the early to the late reproductive stage (tasseling and grain filling), depending on their planting dates. By the end of March, green consumption is expected to improve household food access  leading to improvements in food security outcomes. The Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security, and Nutrition usually complete their joint crop assessment in April. However, based on key informant interviews, crop production, especially for maize and sorghum, will likely be below average due to reduced cultivated area and high seed and fertilizer costs.

Very poor households currently face reduced agricultural labor opportunities, mainly from weeding, which has been slowed down by heavy rainfall. In addition, labor opportunities have been reduced by below-average planted areas and by better-off households with below-average hiring power. Furthermore, very poor households rely on income opportunities for sheep shearing, which typically ends in February. Between December and March, agricultural activities provide the largest source of income for very poor households during the peak of agricultural labor demand.

In most mountainous districts, very poor households have benefited from de-brushing (removal of invader species from the rangelands), spearheaded by the Ministry of Forestry, Range, and Soil Conservation over the past couple of years. However, due to budgetary constraints, there have been reductions in the number of people engaging in this livelihood activity, reducing household income. Labor migration to South Africa is currently below normal due to employment challenges as well as high transportation costs, largely affecting the level of remittances households receive, leading to below-average income levels for very poor households.

For the first time since March 2022, inflation remained stable between November and December 2022 (Figure 1). However, food inflation remains elevated, thereby limiting households’ access to food during a period household reliance on purchases is the highest.

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is implementing a humanitarian assistance program in the districts of Mokhotlong, Thaba-Tseka, and Berea, targeting nearly 15 percent of the households in these areas. The program started in December 2022 in Mokhotlong and Thaba-Tseka district and in January 2023 in Berea district. As a result, targeted households receive M1,100 per month, below the M1,646 that the Lesotho Household Budget Survey (2017/18) established that households spend monthly on food.  It is expected that the humanitarian assistance program will continue until March 2023.

The 2022/23 above-average rainfall season will provide livestock with good pasture and water availability, contributing to normal livestock body conditions. However, farmers who sell their livestock to South Africa are expected to continue facing market access challenges because of additional vaccination service requirements, driving lower-than-normal income from livestock sales. In addition, households that depend on remittances are also experiencing below-average income due to reduced labor opportunities in South Africa, as economic conditions are weaker than usual. Given below-average income levels and above-average food prices, very poor households face reduced purchasing power and limited access to food. These households are therefore facing food consumption gaps leading to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

Households’ food consumption is expected to improve by the end of March as households transition from the lean season to accessing the green harvest. Further improvements in household food consumption are expected from April as households begin to consume their own produced food from the main harvest at least through August. During this period, households will likely be able to meet their minimum food needs from their own stocks. Due to below-average crop production, households will likely start relying on purchases by September, a month earlier than usual. However, households will likely be unable to meet other non-food needs due to below-average income from crop sales, non-agricultural labor, labor migration, and remittances. Very poor households are expected to transition from Crisis (IPC Phase) in March to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between April and September.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. LESOTHO Remote Monitoring Update February 2022-3: Food security outcomes to improve with the 2022/23 main harvest through September 2023