Below-average 2017/18 crop yields expected due to poor seasonal rainfall

• In large parts of Mafeteng, Maseru, Berea, Leribe and part of Butha-Buthe districts, total cumulative rainfall has been 55-70 percent of normal. These rainfall anomalies are a slight improvement in comparison to the previous month, but these moisture deficits are still likely to have negative impacts on crop development and yields for the 2018 harvest. Some crops are reported to be stunted, but still growing because of recent February rainfall. Concern for key-growing zones in Lesotho was included in a regional Special Alert recently released by FAO.  

• Food stocks among households are expected to be depleted in January/February and market purchases will be the main source of food, in addition to in-kind labor payments. Current maize meal prices are lower than last year and at near-average levels. Access to green foods for consumption is usually available in late February but will be reduced this season for most poor households due to the dry conditions.

• The erratic and poor rainfall this season is expected to contribute to below-normal local labor opportunities between February and July. Normally, household income sources during the months of January/February include remittances from relatives working in mining in South Africa, shearing wool, on-farm weeding labor, self-employment, livestock sales, and safety-net programming. By April, food availability is expected to improve at the household level as harvests become available. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) area outcomes are expected to continue in Lesotho between February and May, improving to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) between June and September.

Seasonal rainfall performance across most of the country has been below average and significant moisture deficits have emerged in key cropping areas. In large parts of Mafeteng, Maseru, Berea, Leribe and part of Butha-Buthe districts, total cumulative rainfall has been 55-70 percent of normal (Figure 1). These rainfall anomalies are a slight improvement in comparison to the previous month, but these moisture deficits are still likely to have negative impacts on crop development and yields for the 2018 harvest. After a short recovery in cereal harvests in 2017, below-average production is anticipated for the 2018 harvest. Data on the area planted for the 2017/18 cropping season is not available, but the Disaster Management Authority (DMA) is expected to complete a crop assessment in the coming months. In the meantime, FAO has recently released a regional Special Alert highlighting that a reduction in the 2018 cereal output is expected in countries impacted by drought conditions this season, but that situation is not expected to be as bad as in 2016.

Lesotho is one of several typically grain deficit countries in southern Africa. Self-sufficiency maize levels will likely decline again during the next marketing year. According to FEWS NET’s Southern Africa Maize Supply and Market Outlook Update, net maize supplies for the region in the 2018/19 marketing year may be slightly below or close to average, a scenario that may exert upward pressure on maize prices. The current maize meal price in Maseru is below last year and at five-year average levels. Integrated price projections for maize in Maseru through June 2018 indicate that prices in April, May, and June should decrease to levels slightly under the five-year average, improving the purchasing power for households that are fully dependent on food purchases (Figure 2).

Below normal casual labor opportunities have been reported and are expected to continue this season due to the erratic rainfall and dryness. Normally, household income sources during the months of January/February include remittances from relatives working in mining in South Africa, shearing wool, on-farm weeding labor, self-employment, livestock sales, and safety-net programming.

Food stocks among households are expected to be depleted in January/February and market purchases will be the main source of food, in addition to in-kind labor payments. Access to green foods for consumption is usually available in late February but will be reduced this season for most poor households due to the dry conditions. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) area outcomes are expected from February to May. By April, food availability is expected to improve at the household level as harvests become available. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) areas outcomes are expected for June-September.