Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Since mid-November, persistent rainfall facilitated a favorable start to the season. Planting for the 2021/22 season, primarily maize and sorghum, is nearly complete and is expected to be finished by the end of December. The average to above-average rainfall to start the season has resulted in favorable crop development. Crops in the southern mountainous districts have already reached the vegetative stage. The cereal production forecast in 2022 is average. However, the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on households' incomes and high prices for agricultural inputs, including fertilizers and labor, could limit yield potential and reduce output. Although average production is still anticipated for the 2022 harvest

October, food prices were generally stable. Prices of maize flour (Figure 1), beans, wheat flour, and sunflower oil in Maseru and generally elsewhere were stable month on month but elevated compared to last year and the five-year average. The stable monthly levels are partly attributed to adequate domestic availability following an increase in production. Aggregate demand is also subdued by depressed incomes following numerous COVID-19 lockdowns. Maize meal and bean prices in October 2021 were nine percent and 26 percent above October 2020, respectively. Tight global supplies relative to demand in 2021 kept upward pressure on prices, and Lesotho prices followed suit.

Although domestic food supplies are sufficient, maize meal prices are projected to increase during this lean season due to rising prices in South Africa (Figure 2). Supply chains between Lesotho and South Africa are generally functioning normally.

Following above-average maize production in 2021, the import requirement for the 2021/22 marketing year is estimated at the below-average level of 74,207MT. Cumulative maize import totals between May and November 2021 were 34,884MT, 22 percent lower than last year and 26 percent below the five-year average.

Food insecurity has been partly driven by the effects of the lockdown measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and elevated food prices year on year. Restricted entry of tourists and partial lockdown continues to result in the loss of jobs and income. Overall, household purchasing power is expected to be below average due to high food prices and below-average access to income- driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in areas of concern. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are anticipated in the post-harvest period.