Key Message Update

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected to emerge as the lean season starts

September 2021
This map shows part of Lesotho classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Starting in October, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in some areas of Lesotho. These outcomes are expected to persist through January 2022, with the food insecure population peaking around January. Poorer households are expected to be market reliant due to the depletion of own-produced foods. Household income is expected to remain below average, driving below average purchasing power and declines in food access.

  • Off-farm income is expected to seasonally decline and be limited around November as households’ focus turns to own farm activities. Preparations for the 2021/22 agricultural season are beginning, specifically for land preparation activities. From November onwards, on-farm labor opportunities are expected to increase with increasing farming activities as the 2021/22 rainy season is expected to be fully established. Income from agricultural labor is expected to be lower than typical, although higher than last year due to below average income for better-off households. This is because of the compounding impacts of poor seasons and COVID-19 restriction measures.

  • Markets are functioning normally, with local and South African supplies able to meet demand. In 2020 and parts of 2021, there were some disruptions of supply chains due to border closures. Although there are still some restrictions at the border, the situation has significantly improved, allowing cargo with supplies to move more freely. Maize meal prices remain above the five-year average; however, they are currently stable. With the lean season coming, maize meal prices are likely to increase further due to increases in market demand. This will likely erode purchasing power for market-dependent, very poor, and poor households.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics