Key Message Update

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes likely during the ongoing lean season due to low purchasing power

November 2021

November 2021 - January 2022

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in parts of Lesotho for the majority of the June to September 2020 period.

February - May 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Land preparation and planting for the 2021/22 agricultural season are ongoing despite some early-season rainfall deficits. Planting is in progress at normal levels, increasing opportunities for agricultural labor. International forecasts are for above-average rainfall for the 2021/22 season. This is expected to decrease current rainfall deficits and facilitate favorable crop development. Currently, prospects for the 2022 harvest are favorable.¬†

  • The price of maize flour, wheat flour, and beans remained generally stable in October; however, at high levels compared to earlier in 2021. This is primarily due to price transmission from South Africa, where food prices are high. Prices of maize flour are nearly 10 percent higher on a year-on-year basis. Rising prices of fertilizers and other agricultural inputs are expected to exert upward pressure on production costs, which could drive grain price increases in the coming months. Supply chains between the country and South Africa are functioning normally.¬†

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through the lean season in southern areas of the country. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected for the rest of the country in the coming months. Food insecurity is predominantly driven by prolonged high levels of unemployment in Lesotho and South Africa due to the economic slowdown associated with the COVID-19 pandemic as well as above-average food prices. Another wave of COVID-19 associated with the new variant could lead to new restrictions potentially driving extended and higher levels of unemployment.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics