Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected after poor harvest

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Harvests are far below average following erratic rainfall during the latter half of the 2023/24 rainfall season, and this decline is a key driver of food insecurity. Most households that would typically be consuming own-produced grains are already relying on market purchases to access food. Although market food supply is stable (supplies are being imported to meet demand), poor and very poor households’ financial access to food is limited by reduced income from crop sales and agricultural labor in combination with high staple food prices. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in Lesotho through January, with greatest concern for households whose livelihoods typically depend on own-produced crop production and agricultural labor in areas of the south. The population in need of food assistance is expected to rise as the October-March lean season progresses.
The maize harvest – Lesotho’s most important staple crop – is approximately 57 percent below the five-year average, while sorghum is 71 percent below average, according to estimates in the Lesotho Bureau of Statistics Crop Forecast Report. Conversely, wheat performed well and production is near average. Concern regarding the impacts of low maize and sorghum production on poor households’ ability to meet their minimum food needs led the Prime Minister to declare a National Food Insecurity Disaster on July 12, effective until March 31, 2025, when the next harvest begins.
Farmers have largely finished planting winter wheat, concentrated in the northeastern mountainous districts. While the 2023/24 rains performed better in this area compared to the south, soil moisture is currently below average due to the effects of above-average temperatures during the dry season, even after heavy rainfall in early April and some snowfall in early June. The winter wheat harvest in late 2024, followed by the next maize and wheat harvest in 2025, will most likely be supported by average to above-average rainfall from October 2024 to March 2025, according to weather forecasts. However, there is some uncertainty regarding the degree to which rainfall performance will be favorable, as this will depend on the timing and strength of anticipated La Niña conditions, which are expected to emerge between September and November.
Despite the availability of some stocks from Lesotho’s recent 2023/24 harvest and declining global food prices, food inflation has risen slightly since May and reached 9 percent annually in July. Food inflation drove an increase in the annual headline inflation rate to 6.7 percent in July. A contributing factor is rising South African maize prices, which increased month-on-month by 3.3 percent in June and 5.1 percent in July. At the same time, South Africa’s weak economic performance in the first half of 2024, inclusive of a rising unemployment rate, has constrained Lesotho's economic growth and the incomes of poor and very poor households.
To address the negative effects of food insecurity for children, WFP’s school meals programs have been serving at least one nutritious meal each school day to approximately 50,000 pre-primary learners across Lesotho. In Quthing and Mohale’s Hoek, WFP’s home-grown school feeding pilot project is also linking school produce with farmers to boost smallholders’ incomes.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Lesotho Key Message Update July 2024: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected after poor harvest, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.