Below normal cumulative rainfall is expected to impact 2017/18 crop yields

Since the start of the 2017/18 season rainfall performance has been performing poorly. To date, cumulative rainfall across most of the country is estimated to be 10-50 percent below normal. These moisture deficits are likely to have negative impacts on crop development and crop yields for the 2018 harvest. 

Poor rainfall has resulted in below-normal vegetation conditions across most of the country. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) levels, which measure the greenness or health of crops, indicates that vegetation is 10-20 percent below normal.  Pastures that are currently available are also likely to deteriorate earlier than normal after the season ends because of the poor cumulative total. As a result, livestock body conditions are also expected to deteriorate much earlier than normal during the post-harvest period

The main income sources are currently casual labor, remittances, and livestock sales. However, poor seasonal performance is already affecting the availability of casual labor opportunities by very poor and poor households. In-kind payments are also declining because of anxiety by households that this year’s harvest will likely be below average. Nonetheless, food supplies in markets are still good and households are accessing food through market purchases. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) area outcomes are expected to continue in Lesotho, with a risk of households in some areas experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.