Food aid needs during lean season expected to be higher than last year

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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through at least January 2025 in the worst-affected areas of Mafeteng, Mohale’s Hoek, Maseru, and Quthing districts amid limited food stocks and challenges affecting household access to food. An increasing number of people are relying on food purchases, but below-average income and above-average food prices are limiting purchasing power. Households in these areas of Lesotho are engaging in coping strategies such as reducing non-food expenditure and selling productive assets. Prices of basic food commodities are above average and expected to remain high through the next harvest in April/May 2025. Overall, the food insecurity situation is expected to deteriorate, with a progressive increase in populations facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes into early 2025 in these areas of concern. Meanwhile, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across the rest of Lesotho as production was relatively better and households can consume some food from own-production.
The 2024/25 rainfall season is forecast to be average to above average, associated with the development of La Niña conditions in late 2024. Mountainous areas of Lesotho face flood risks if there is heavy rainfall; for example, the country experienced historic flooding during the exceptionally strong La Niña in 2010/11 (after a strong El Niño). Based on current weather forecasts, the rains are expected to improve pasture quality and availability, water availability, and livestock conditions. Additionally, rainfall is anticipated to begin early, permitting households to start planting earlier than normal such that total area planted in 2024/25 may exceed that of the 2023/24 agricultural season. However, input subsidies are unavailable to poor households, then the high cost of seeds and fertilizers - exacerbated by below-average incomes - may constrain poor households’ access to inputs and ability to plant, as observed during the previous season.
As the 2024/25 rainfall season approaches, preparations for the summer cropping season are commencing. Sporadic land preparation activities occurred in August, although activity is expected to peak around September and October near/with the start of rainfall. Poor households are expected to benefit from a relative increase in access to agricultural labor opportunities, which are projected to be better than last year and will likely improve household income. However, while income may improve compared to prior months, it is expected to remain below average overall due to expectations of high competition for/oversupply of labor, coupled with low liquidity and reduced capacity to hire laborers among better-off households.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Lesotho Key Message Update August 2024: Food aid needs during lean season expected to be higher than last year, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.