Key Message Update

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are expected to emerge in some areas of the region in October

September 2021

August - September 2021

October 2021 - January 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Most areas of the region continue to experience favorable food security outcomes with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes ongoing as households consume own-produced foods. In areas where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing, households rely more on markets for their food and non-food needs. Although, in areas of southern Madagascar affected by severe drought and in conflict-affected areas of Mozambique and DRC, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in October in areas of southern Malawi, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe, as many poor households are expected to deplete all own-produced stocks and increase their reliance on market purchases for food.

  • Southern Madagascar remains one of the main areas of concern in Southern Africa due to the poor production caused by drought. In some southern districts, the sweet potato harvest and humanitarian assistance delivery is somewhat stabilizing food security outcomes with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes ongoing. During the October to January period, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are likely in some areas of southern Madagascar as the cassava production is expected to be near zero and households are overselling their livestock and productive assets to meet their food needs.

  • Conflict continues to disrupt livelihood activities in areas of DRC and northern Mozambique, driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through at least January 2022. In DRC, despite the government declaring a state of siege in North Kivu and Ituri provinces, conflict and attacks continue by armed actors. According to OCHA, since June, nearly 606,000 people have been displaced in these provinces. In Mozambique, the intensification of the government offensive in Cabo Delgado with the support of foreign troops resulted in the re-taking of insurgent-controlled land. Some IDPs households have started to return to their places of origin. Although, many have limited ability to re-establish their livelihoods and rely significantly on humanitarian assistance.

  • The rate of the confirmed number of COVID-19 cases has slowed down in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, and Madagascar, leading to a decline a near end to the third wave in Southern Africa. As a result, many governments have started to relax COVID-19 restriction measures. This has resulted in some improvements in economic and business activities across many towns. Although many poor urban households continue to struggle to meet their non-food needs, where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes continue due to the income losses associated with COVID-19 restrictions.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics