Staple supply remains constrained in most drought affected areas

While humanitarian assistance is ongoing in parts of Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, funding constraints continue to affect current coverage and is anticipated to further limit coverage in these countries after December. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes will likely continue in parts of Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Malawi, Lesotho, and Mozambique. Some areas will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes, in the presence of assistance.  

In the absence of adequate humanitarian assistance, IPC Phase 3 outcomes are expected to continue through January in most affected countries. However areas in southern Madagascar that have experienced 2-3 seasons of consecutive drought will likely experience a surge in households experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes between October and January.

In August, the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) announced a seasonal forecast for normal to above normal rainfall for most parts of the region during the October- December period, with the exception of the northern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Tanzania, northwestern Angola, northern Mozambique, and eastern Madagascar, which are expected to receive normal to below normal rainfall during this period. During the January-March period, similar rainfall conditions are expected, except normal to below normal rainfall is expected for southern Zimbabwe and Mozambique, and northern South Africa. 

Staple supplies on markets in most affected countries remains limited. Food prices continue to rise and for Mozambique and Malawi, maize prices are double both last year’s and the five-year average. Even in surplus countries including Zambia and Tanzania, maize prices are higher than both last year and five-year average. However, maize prices in Zimbabwe remain relatively stable in comparison to the previous year prices and are about 30 percent above the five-year average.