Key Message Update

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes expected in much of the region during the 2021/22 lean season

October 2021

September 2021

October 2021 - January 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • As the lean season is starting in most parts of the region, many poor households in southern parts of Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique have depleted own-produced foods from the 2020/21 season. These households are now reliant on market purchases for food. Many poor households in these areas have limited income and below-average purchasing power. This is driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through at least January. In southern Madagascar, particularly Ampanihy and Amboasroy provinces, where drought during the 2020/21 season drove significant crop losses and limited income, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely through at least January. 

  • Conflict remains a major driver of food insecurity in parts of DRC and Mozambique. In Mozambique, conflict has stabilized in recent months, with many households returning to their area of origin, engaging in the upcoming agriculture season. Although, households are not expected to engage in the agricultural season due to continued conflict and below-average access to agricultural inputs. In DRC, the conflict in eastern areas continues to disrupt household livelihood and market activities, including Ituri, South Kivu, and North Kivu. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to continue through January in conflict-affected areas of Mozambique and DRC. 

  • The 2021/22 rainy season is expected to start typically with forecasts indicating average to above-average rainfall, most likely across much of the region. If the forecast comes to fruition, this would be the second consecutive good season in the region, the first time since 2014. Favorable rainfall will improve cropping and livestock conditions across most of the region. Agriculture labor will likely seasonally increase in most parts of the region and be above average, where rains are expected to perform well. This will improve income opportunities for poor households. On average, across the region, income from these sources is likely to be near average. This will help poor and very poor households access staple foods on the market.

  • Due to the decline in the COVID-19 positivity rate, many governments across the region relaxed most restriction measures, which were tightened in early 2021. As businesses and the informal sector have started operating at near-normal levels, in-country remittances are expected to improve, especially from urban to rural areas. This is expected to support household access to purchase some food. Although continued border closures in some countries, like Zimbabwe, seasonal labor opportunities in neighboring South Africa, which typically provide additional income for food and agriculture inputs for families back home, are likely to remain below average. Urban food insecurity is expected to stabilize to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in much of the region. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics