Food insecurity outcomes to worsen for households in cereal deficit parts of the region in the coming months

As the lean season draws near, most households in deficit parts of the region including southern Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, Mozambique, and Lesotho will start experiencing Crisis, IPC Phase 3 acute food insecurity outcomes.  Some areas in Madagascar and the Democratic Republic of Congo that since June have been experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to deteriorate further and in the absence of emergency assistance, households will start experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Elsewhere in the region, good production this season will likely result in most households maintaining Minimal and Stressed (IPC Phase 1 and 2) outcomes through January 2018. 

Several markets in the region remain well supplied due to the impact of the above-average harvests this year. These stable food supplies and low demand have resulted in prices for maize grain either remaining stable or declining in comparison to both last year and the five-year average. In some parts of Zimbabwe, prices remain 31 and 24 percent below last year and five-year average, respectively; similar trends have been reported in Malawi where the current national price is 54 and 15 percent lower than last year and the five-year average.  In Mozambique, food prices were also reportedly stable and lower than the five-year average.

In September, the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) announced that normal to below-normal rainfall is expected across most of unimodal Southern Africa between October-December 2017, while normal to above-normal rainfall is expected for January-March 2018. However, the latest CPC/IRI outlook for October indicates that during the main rainy season (October 2017-March 2018) the La Niña ENSO phase is most likely to occur, instead of the Neutral ENSO phase that was initially projected to continue. Because the climate drivers that normally provide an indication of how the season may turn out are close to neutral, this season is difficult to forecast and international and national forecast models will need to be monitored closely in the coming months.