Ongoing harvest is improving food access, but food prices remain high

• Across southern Africa, the ongoing harvest is improving household food access and availability. However, limited access to seed for poor households likely reduced cropped area, while high temperatures, dry spells, erratic rainfall, and flooding from Tropical Cyclone Freddy are likely to result in below-average harvests in southern Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, parts of the Grand South and eastern Madagascar, southern Malawi, and southwestern Angola. However, cumulatively average to above average rainfall in the northern areas of Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Madagascar, and Malawi supported crop development. In northern and central Madagascar, households are preparing for the upcoming rice harvest in May.

• Maize prices in April 2023 decreased seasonally across markets, supported by the ongoing harvest. Nevertheless, maize prices remain higher than last year and the five-year average, underpinned by tight domestic supply, currency depreciation, and high energy prices that have inflated production and distribution costs. The seasonal decline in maize prices is expected to be short-lived as prices become sticky due to below-average carryover stocks following strong export demand from outside the region during the just-ended marketing season. Around July and August, maize prices will likely begin rising as food stocks decline and market purchases increase.

• Headline Inflation remains elevated in most economies despite most markets remaining well-supplied and operating normally across the region. However, in flood and cyclone-affected areas of Mozambique, Malawi, and Madagascar, infrastructure damage is limiting market functions and increasing prices. The food inflation subindex across much of the region remains in double digits in April but is expected to decline as the main harvest reaches markets. However, the continued depreciation in domestic currencies is keeping food prices high and lowering household purchasing power.

• A transition to El Niño will likely occur by June, with central and southern Mozambique, southern Malawi, and northeastern Madagascar likely to record cumulatively below-average to average rainfall from June to August. Eastern and central DRC will likely record cumulatively average to below-average rainfall from June to September. Although there is relatively low predictability of rainfall in southern Africa during the October to December period based on El Niño, the start of the October to December 2023 rainy season is likely to be mixed with a possible delayed start. However, rainfall from December to March, often the peak of the rainy season, is likely to be below average.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Southern Africa Key Message Update May 2023: Ongoing harvest is improving food access, but food prices remain high, 2023.