Key Message Update

The start of the main season harvest improves household food consumption in most of the region

May 2021

April - May 2021

June - September 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In Southern Madagascar, due to the consecutive droughts and poor early harvests, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are ongoing due to a severe extended 2020/21 lean season. Despite the harvest and increased labor opportunities driving some seasonal improvements, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through at least September 2021. In the rest of the region, the ongoing favorable 2021 harvest is improving access to own foods for most households in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Lesotho, and most parts of Mozambique. As a result, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are ongoing among most households.

  • Conflict in Carbo Delgado in Mozambique and Ituri, Tanganyika, and Kassai Provinces of DRC continues to affect households’ access to food and disrupt livelihood activities. In these areas, agricultural activities are limited, with many activities affected by banditry, driving a low harvest for many displaced households. According to UNHCR, over 700,000 people have been displaced to Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Niassa, Sofala, and Zambezia. This does not account for those who fled to Tanzania and are now being systematically returned to Mozambique. Households that are displaced and affected by conflict in these areas are expected to continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

  • Household access to cash income is expected to improve through May and August as households across most parts of the region where production improved engagement in harvesting labor. In addition, poor households are also expected to benefit from in-kind payments as better-off households are likely to seasonally increase payment to laborers. With the average to above-average water availability enhanced by above-average rainfall and production, gardening activities are also expected to start soon and provide additional income to poor households for other livelihood expenditures.

  • Regional staple supplies are expected to above-average across much of Southern Africa. Average to above-average production in Malawi, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Zambia, and South Africa will likely drive the decline in staple food prices with prices likely to be lower than in 2020 across the region. In Malawi, March maize grain prices were up to 50 percent below last year and up to 30 percent below the five-year average. Similar trends are observed in non-conflict affected areas of Mozambique, where maize grain prices decreased by 11 to 46 percent lower than their respective 2020 prices. This is expected to improve household access to staple foods on the market.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics