The start of the 2018 harvest marginally improves household food security

Harvesting activities have started in most countries in the region. For areas that experienced poorly distributed rains and drought conditions the harvest will produce enough maize to consume for 1-2 months, so it is only expected to marginally improve food security at the household level. In contrast, areas where the increased February and March rains improved the crop situation, staple supplies from the 2018 harvest are expected to improve the food security situation through September.

As a result of the ongoing harvest, most areas across the region are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with the exception of parts of southwestern and eastern Madagascar; central Mozambique, where households are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to the drought conditions experienced in December and January. Additionally, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continues to have more areas than any other country in the region experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are mainly in the conflict affected Kasai, Tanganyika, and Ituri provinces, where households were unable to engage in meaningful farming activities. After May, southern parts of Mozambique and Zimbabwe are projected to face earlier than usual food consumption gaps and will mostly experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

Staple prices across the region are mostly stable and below the previous year and the five-year average. However, in some areas including parts of Malawi and Madagascar, maize grain prices decreased slightly because of reduced demand on the market since most households at this point are relying on own production. Given the below-normal maize yields anticipated this year, food prices are expected to start to increase earlier than normal since farming households are likely to start market purchases for food earlier than normal.