Key Message Update

Despite the harvest, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes persist in parts of the region

June 2021

May 2021

June - September 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are widespread across much of southern Madagascar, with some households experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and worst-affected households in Ambovombe and Amboasary experiencing Catastrophe ((IPC Phase 5). Minimal seasonal improvement in food access is expected in southern Madagascar due to the expected limited harvest and associated income-earning opportunities. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes with some households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) are expected to persist through at least September.

  • Conflict continues at relatively high levels in Cabo Delgado Mozambique and parts of the DRC. According to OCHA, as of April, over 732,000 people were displaced in Cabo Delgado. In Kasai, DRC, in March, about 41,000 were displaced due to conflict. Additionally, in North Kivu and Ituri provinces, recent conflict has resulted in the government’s declaration of martial law. Conflict in DRC and Mozambique has disrupted agricultural and most typical livelihood activities with minimal seasonal improvements expected with the harvest. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in these areas through at least September.

  • As the harvest continues across most of the region, most households, including the poor, are consuming foods from their own production. Overall, households in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Lesotho, and most parts of Mozambique are anticipated to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through at least September. In areas where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, while the harvest is expected to facilitate improved food access, household income will most likely remain below average.

  • In May, the volcano eruption of Nyiragongo in DRC led to the displacement of over 400,000 people. People have already started returning, with the IOM estimating about 160,000 people already returned. Humanitarian assistance is being provided to many affected displaced and non-displaced populations; however, some consumption deficits are likely to remain. In addition, the affected populations in Goma will likely experience some challenges recovering some of their typical livelihood activities when COVID-19 related restrictions already caused significant disruption to income-earning activities for poor households.

  • Household income in areas of the region where the harvest is favorable is expected to improve between June and August as households sell crops and earn income from off-farm labor and self-employment. Although, in some areas, access to income is expected to remain below-average due to the below-average harvest, partly caused by excessive rainfall in some areas, poor rainfall in other areas, and conflict. With the reported improvement of pasture and livestock conditions across the region, livestock sales will also contribute to household incomes; however, poor households are not likely to benefit much as most have sold their livestock in previous drought years to meet their food needs. In addition, key informants indicate that some very poor households have sold all non-essential animals over the past year.  

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics