Key Message Update

Heavy early February rainfall in parts of the region slightly improve crop conditions

February 2020

January 2020

February - May 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Humanitarian food assistance delivery is improving areas of Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). However, funding shortfalls continue, especially in Zimbabwe where food assistance needs are atypically high due to the impacts of the consecutive poor seasons and deteriorating macroeconomy. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present in conflict affected areas of DRC and areas of Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe where many households are having difficulty accessing food.

  • Seasonal improvements in food access are expected with the harvest across much of the region in March/April. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected during the post-harvest period in southern Mozambique and Zimbabwe as the result of the 2019/20 drought and ongoing conflict in northern Mozambique. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is also expected to continue in conflict affected areas of DRC. The rest of the region will most likely face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

  • From mid-January through early February, most parts of the region experienced favorable rainfall improving crop conditions in areas where crops had not yet wilted. However, conditions remained generally poor in parts of Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique. As of late January, crops were in generally satisfactory condition across Madagascar. In DRC, flooding and conflict disrupted Season A crops, which will likely result in a lower than normal harvest. In Malawi and northern Mozambique, cropping conditions are favorable. December and January rainfall in Lesotho led to an increase in area planted; however, it still remains below average.

  • Staple food prices continue to increase in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. In Mozambique and Malawi, maize grain prices were 40 to 95 percent and 80 to 115 percent above the five-year average, respectively. In Zimbabwe, the macroeconomic challenges and market shortages of both maize grain and maize meal continue, triggering significant price increases. In Madagascar, prices of dried cassava started increasing in Ambovombe and Tulear II markets. Maize and local rice prices in Madagascar remain above average. In most parts of the region, besides in Zimbabwe, staple food prices are likely to remain above average through March, then marginally decrease in April as households start accessing own foods.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics