Food insecurity worsens amid depleted food stocks and rising food prices

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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present in areas of Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, and central and southern Mozambique as household food stocks are exhausted, market prices escalate, and incomes remain below average, constraining food access for the poor. These outcomes are expected to continue through at least January 2025 (the peak of the lean season). A gradual increase in the number of households facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes is expected in worst-affected areas as food insecurity deteriorates through early 2025. Recent attacks and instability in DRC have displaced people and disrupted normal livelihood activities, driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in areas of the country. In conflict-affected areas of Mozambique, increased access to humanitarian assistance has improved outcomes to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) in some areas; however, instability persists. In the Grand South of Madagascar, the availability of recent cassava and sweet potato harvests is supporting Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. However, the seasonal depletion of household food stocks is expected to drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from September/October 2024 through at least January 2025.
Most poor households in Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, and central and southern Mozambique are relying on markets for food atypically early due to failed or poor crop production and the depletion of food stocks. Food prices, particularly for key staple foods, are above average and have increased month-on-month, mostly driven by El Niño-induced drought and inflationary market pressures. Compared to the same time last year, maize grain prices in July were higher by about 25 percent or more in Mozambique and Malawi, and by 70 to over 100 percent more in Zimbabwe. Food access continues to be constrained for most poor households with low incomes, and the situation is expected to further deteriorate through early 2025.
In Madagascar and DRC, price trends were driven primarily by seasonality and conflict that differ from the rest of the region, respectively, rather than El Niño impacts. In the Grand South and Grand Southeast of Madagascar, cassava and sweet potato prices were stable, with some month-on-month seasonal decline following the recent harvests. However, prices of imported rice increased between 30 and 45 percent year-on-year, driven by continued depreciation of the local currency and high transportation costs. In the northeast and center-east of DRC, maize grain and vegetable oil prices have risen by 18 and 10 percent, respectively, since the early start of the lean season in July. Continued currency depreciation and high fuel prices in DRC are also contributing to higher price levels and reducing the purchasing capacity of households.
Despite the early start of the lean season across the region, most countries have not yet started or scaled up humanitarian food assistance for people affected by the El Niño-induced drought. In Malawi, food assistance is expected to start in September and cover about 10 percent of the population in the severely affected areas; this is unlikely to improve food security outcomes. Resource mobilization is ongoing in Mozambique and Zimbabwe. In conflict-affected areas of Mozambique, the Food Security Cluster (FSC) continues to provide food assistance and livelihood support, although at levels below the target coverage due to limited resources and the physical inaccessibility of some areas.
Due to anticipated La Niña conditions, the 2024/25 agricultural production season is expected to be average to above average in southern and central parts of Mozambique, Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, Madagascar, Lesotho, and southern Angola. In anticipation of a favorable season, preparations have started in some areas, including land preparation and acquisition and distribution of agricultural inputs. These activities are expected to expand and intensify into the planting period, through October/November.
As a result of poor and deteriorating cattle body conditions due to the prolonged dry season, households may struggle to complete land preparation (plowing) due to poor animal health. Cattle conditions and draft power availability are expected to gradually improve as pastures and water replenish during the rainy season. Most farmers are expected to face challenges accessing crop inputs on the market due to low income and high input prices. Given reduced purchasing power and lack of retained seeds due to poor harvests, most poor households are likely to rely on free crop inputs distributed by the government or donors, if available.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Southern Africa Key Message Update August 2024: Food insecurity worsens amid depleted food stocks and rising food prices, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.