Skip to main content

Atypical early start of the lean season expected in most deficit areas due to drought and cyclones

  • Key Message Update
  • Southern Africa
  • August 2022
Atypical early start of the lean season expected in most deficit areas due to drought and cyclones

Download the Report

  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Poor households in areas affected by drought or cyclones during the 2021/22 season had a poor harvest, are market reliant, and are experiencing food consumption gaps through at least January 2023. Southern Madagascar is expected to face the most severe consumption deficits due to consecutive droughts in the region. While food assistance is currently mitigating consumption deficits and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are ongoing. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are projected to emerge in October as assistance is slated to end. Dry conditions in southwestern Angola, southern and extreme northern parts of Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, and southern and central Mozambique drove lower than normal production, with households having sufficient own produced stocks for only two months. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in these areas through at least January 2023, with assistance needs projected to be higher than average. 

    • Most countries across the region are facing high inflation and associated increases in the cost of living in part due to the high global food prices and import costs coupled with lower-than-normal production. Macroeconomic issues in Zimbabwe remain volatile, and in July, the ZWL continued to depreciate sharply against the USD, triggering sharp food price increases. In Mozambique, inflation levels in June jumped to 10.81 percent, the highest in four years. In Madagascar, food prices have been increasing due to high fuel prices and lower-than-normal production. In Malawi, a combination of the Kwacha devaluation due to foreign currency shortages and rising fuel prices are contributing to high inflation levels. Across the region, the high and increasing food prices have left poor households struggling to access key food commodities on the market when own-produced foods are declining, especially among poor households.

    • In Mozambique and DRC, conflict continues to disrupt livelihood activities, drive displacement, and limit access to some areas. According to IOM, as of July, the insurgency in Cabo Delgado province of Mozambique is estimated to have caused the displacement of nearly a million people. In DRC, the conflict between the March 23 movement (M23) and FARDC in Rutshuru territory has caused significant levels of displacement. Other conflict-affected areas include Ituri, Kassai, and Tanganyika, and households in these areas mainly rely on humanitarian assistance and some income-earning activities as no meaningful cropping activities take place due to conflict. 

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

    Get the latest food security updates in your inbox Sign up for emails

    The information provided on this Website is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.

    Jump back to top