Early lean season and El Niño likely to drive deteriorating food security outcomes

• From June to September 2026, the post-harvest period will support food access for most households through own-produced food stocks. However, in southern Madagascar, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected, as household food stocks will likely last only two months instead of the typical four, resulting in food consumption deficits as households become market reliant. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing and expected to persist in conflict-affected areas of eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and northern Mozambique due to disrupted livelihood activities, displacement, and restricted market access. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are ongoing in localized areas where food assistance is supporting food consumption, including parts of Mozambique and eastern DRC. 
• Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected from October 2026 to January 2027 across southern Angola, southern and central Malawi, southern Mozambique, and the Grand Sud of Madagascar, as households become increasingly reliant on market purchases amid below-average purchasing power after exhausting their food stocks. High food prices and localized 2026 production deficits, coupled with reduced agricultural labor demand linked to El Niño-induced dryness, are expected to drive below-average access to market foods. As the peak of the lean season approaches across much of the region in early 2027, food assistance needs are expected to increase through early 2027.  
• An El Niño event is ongoing and expected to strengthen during the start of the October 2026 to May 2027 rainy season, bringing a delayed onset of rains, below-average rainfall, and above-average temperatures across much of the region. In southern Angola, deteriorating pasture conditions are likely to reduce livestock productivity and milk availability. In Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Lesotho, delayed and below-average rainfall is expected to reduce planting activities and seasonal labor demand. In southern Madagascar, rainfall deficits are expected to compound an already early start of the lean season. 
• Conflict remains a key driver of acute food insecurity in eastern DRC and northern Mozambique. In DRC, ongoing conflict has displaced millions, disrupted agricultural production and livelihood activities, and constrained market access. The Ebola outbreak has further reduced trade and income-earning opportunities for households dependent on cross-border commerce, but has not impacted area-level food security outcomes. In Mozambique, renewed attacks in Cabo Delgado and parts of Nampula Province continue to drive displacement and disrupt the 2025/26 agricultural season, market function, and livelihood activities. Across both countries, many affected households are increasingly reliant on markets, humanitarian assistance, and negative coping strategies, such as reducing meal size and frequency, as conflict continues to erode access to food and income.

• Staple food price trends vary across Southern Africa: elevated prices persist in some countries, with greater stability in others following the 2026 harvest. Rising market dependence and decreased market supply are expected to drive increases in food prices in areas of the region. In Angola, elevated food prices, early stock depletion, and weakening livestock-to-maize terms of trade are expected to reduce food access among poor households. In Malawi, maize prices remain significantly above average and are expected to rise further through at least January. In Mozambique, atypically high maize and rice prices reflect reduced local availability and rising transport costs. In eastern DRC, conflict and trade disruptions continue to weaken market functioning and drive sharp price increases in several urban markets. Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Madagascar, and Zambia generally report stable or declining staple prices following the 2026 harvest, though localized deficits and high transport costs drive high food prices, especially in remote and deficit-producing areas.

  This regional report summarizes the analysis presented in FEWS NET’s country-level Food Security Outlooks for June 2026 - January 2027. 

Angola

Key messages

• From June to October 2026, outcomes aligned with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected in southern agropastoral zones and much of the coast. The March-June national cereal harvest was below average, and rural households will likely deplete their food stocks and become market reliant up to four months early. Poor households will have minimally adequate food consumption due to market purchases of maize meal using intensified self-employment, income from informal labor, and livestock sales in agropastoral areas, but they will reduce essential non-food expenditures.
• From November 2026 to January 2027, Crisis (IPC Phase 3)-aligned outcomes are expected across agropastoral areas. During the November-February lean season, falling livestock-to-maize terms of trade, elevated prices, and declining milk availability will result in food consumption deficits. Poor households will likely increase livestock sales and engage in a variety of self-employment activities to increase income for market food purchases. Isolated pockets of poor agropastoral households with no livestock (and therefore no milk) and limited income-earning opportunities will face outcomes aligned with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) as the lean season peaks in January. 
• The population in need is expected to increase progressively throughout the projection period, reaching 1.0–1.49 million people between November 2026 and January 2027, with needs likely peaking as the annual lean season peaks in early 2027. The areas of the highest concern are in southern agropastoral areas where food insecurity will likely intensify seasonally as households have increasingly fewer livestock to sell, less milk to consume, and fewer agricultural labor opportunities from November to January. 

For more information, see the Angola Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027.

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Key messages

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in Ituri, North Kivu, and South Kivu; certain territories of Maniema and Tanganyika; and in Mai-Ndombe with an increase of households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the eastern provinces. This deterioration is due to persistent conflicts and massive displacement. The ongoing armed clashes between armed groups and government forces continue to create insecurity, causing the degradation of livelihoods, particularly agriculture and livestock, which are reducing household incomes. Conflict remains the primary driver of acute food insecurity in the country. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the three provinces of Ituri, North Kivu, and South Kivu have more than 3.4 million displaced persons. The situation will likely worsen due to restrictions resulting from Ebola epidemic prevention measures.
• The expansion of the Ebola virus epidemic has weakened trade systems and has also limited the movement of people. The epidemic is disrupting the supply of food products already affected by conflict, while causing income loss for thousands of poor households who rely on cross-border activities for their livelihoods. In the medium term, food availability will continue to deteriorate, especially in Ituri, the epicenter of the epidemic, where conflict has already sharply reduced household coping capacities.
• FEWS NET estimates that approximately 17-17.99 million people will need food assistance, with a peak expected between October and December 2026, due to the extended lean season aggravated by persistent insecurity in the east. Needs will remain high beyond the harvests, particularly for internally displaced persons (IDPs), returnees, and refugees, while early depletion of stocks starting in August will reinforce dependence on assistance and reliance on negative coping strategies.

For more information, see the Democratic Republic of the Congo Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027.

Lesotho

Key messages

• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist across the Southern Lowlands, Senqu River Valley, and Mountain regions through January 2027. Food stocks are expected to deplete early by September 2026, increasing market reliance amid localized above-average staple food prices and declining remittances. Labor opportunities are expected to be below average due to an anticipated late start to the season, as El Niño conditions persist.
• Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist through January 2027 in the Northern Lowlands and Foothills, supported by an above-average harvest, available labor opportunities, and stable staple food prices, enabling most households to meet essential food and non-food needs.
• The maize harvest is nearing completion countrywide. In the surplus-producing Northern Lowlands and Foothills, the harvest is expected to be above average, supported by a favorable 2025/26 rainy season and above-average area planted. However, heavy and erratic rainfall in late April and early May caused waterlogging and widespread crop damage across the deficit-producing Senqu River Valley and Southern Lowlands, resulting in a below-average harvest.
• The spread of foot and mouth disease (FMD) is expected to decline and be contained by January, supported by ongoing government interventions. Cash income from wool and mohair sales is expected to partially recover from October 2026.
• Food assistance needs in Lesotho are estimated to be between 100,000-249,000 people and are expected to peak between December and January, as the lean season begins. Needs are expected to gradually increase as food stocks deplete early in remote and deficit-producing areas as the lean season approaches.

For more information, see the Lesotho Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027.

Madagascar

Key messages

• Between June and September 2026, an early deterioration of outcomes to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are expected in Toliara II and Amboasary where losses of cassava and sweet potato are worst, as poor households’ food stocks are likely to deplete atypically early as a result. In most areas of concern in the Grand Sud, tuber harvests and rice prices below last year’s are expected to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during this period. 
• Through September, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in a large part of the Grand Sud, Grand Sud-Est, and in several districts in the east and west that were affected by cyclones Fytia and Gezani. The majority of the country remains in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). In areas of concern, below-normal harvests, reduced incomes, and low dietary diversity limit food access for poor households, although increased availability of rice and tuber harvests will likely mitigate deficits for two months. 
• From October 2026 to January 2027, outcomes are expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the Grand Sud due to early depletion of stocks, the seasonal increase in prices, and the likely delayed start of the 2026/27 rainy season associated with El Niño. Poor households in the area will likely face significant food consumption gaps and intensify debt, asset sales, migration, and consumption of wild foods in order to reduce these gaps. 
• FEWS NET estimates that 1.5-1.99 million people will be in need of humanitarian food assistance between June 2026 and January 2027, with needs expected to peak in southern Madagascar during the lean season from October 2026 to January 2027.

For more information, see the Madagascar Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027.

Malawi

Key messages

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in parts of southern Malawi (the area of highest concern) and localized areas of the central region from October 2026 through January 2027, a marked deterioration following widespread Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through September 2026. These outcomes will likely be driven by the early depletion of household food stocks following below-average 2026 harvests and reduced purchasing power. Above-average food prices, combined with atypically low agricultural labor opportunities, are expected to constrain poor households’ ability to access food through market purchases, leading to food consumption gaps. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across the remaining southern districts and several central region districts over the same period, as households are likely to meet minimum food needs but cannot afford some non-food expenditures without engaging in negative coping strategies. 
• Below-average rainfall is likely in southern Malawi during the 2026/27 season, with October to January rains delayed and poorly distributed. Households’ purchasing power is expected to decline due to below-average agricultural labor income. These conditions are associated with the forecasted strengthening El Niño, which was present as of June and is likely to intensify into a very strong event. In contrast, central and northern Malawi are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall with planting starting in early November, supporting favorable cropping conditions.
• The main harvest has been completed across the country, with average yields reported at the national level, thanks to favorable rainfall conditions. However, the southern region of Malawi, including the Southern Lakeshore, Middle Shire, and Lower Shire Livelihood Zones, experienced below-average harvests due to dry spells and flooding during the main rainy season.
• FEWS NET estimates that 1.5-1.99 million people will require humanitarian food assistance during the October-January lean season. This represents a decline compared to the same period last year, reflecting improved national maize production and lower staple food prices. While plans for humanitarian assistance have not yet been finalized, past trends indicate that assistance is typically provided from November through at least January, coinciding with the peak of the lean season. 

For more information, see the Malawi Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027.

Mozambique

Key messages

• In northern Mozambique, despite the ongoing harvest, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in conflict-affected parts of Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula through at least January 2027 due to ongoing non-state armed groups (NSAG) activity, internal displacement, and disrupted livelihoods, as households have food consumption gaps. Poor households will continue to have below-average food and income, relying on assistance, petty trade, and family support while resorting to negative coping strategies such as skipping meals and reducing meal sizes. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected in areas receiving food assistance, while less affected parts of Cabo Delgado will likely remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 
• In southern and central Mozambique, an improvement is anticipated from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes starting in July. Most households started accessing fresh vegetables and income from sales. This improvement is supported by post-flood vegetable seed assistance, seasonal income, and favorable second season harvest and good residual moisture. However, by October, household food stocks will decline, increasing market dependence amid high food prices and weak purchasing power, with some districts expected to revert to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until January 2027.
• El Niño event is now ongoing and is likely to persist through at least January 2027, with possible strong events. A below-average start to the 2026/27 rainy season is most likely, leading to a late start, and above-average temperatures are likely in southern and central Mozambique, expected to reduce agricultural activities in the rainy season. As a result, labor opportunities will be below-average for poor households. 
• FEWS NET estimates that 1.5-1.99 million people are expected to be in need of food assistance from December to January. Food insecurity is driven by below-average food stocks following a poor 2026 harvest, as well as by ongoing conflict-related disruptions to livelihoods in parts of Cabo Delgado and Nampula. Southern and northern areas remain the areas of greatest concern.

For more information, see the Mozambique Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027.

Zambia

Key messages

• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in western and eastern areas of Zambia, June through September, as households rely on their own food stocks to meet their food needs. However, localized weather shocks, restrictions on livestock movement due to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), and declining fishing are expected to reduce purchasing power for essential non-food goods. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are anticipated elsewhere as the record 2026 maize harvest of approximately 5 million metric tons, improves household food stocks and purchasing power due to above-average income from crop sales.
• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected from October 2026 to January 2027, in areas of the north, south, and among fishing communities, with further spread in the west and east. As the lean season begins, household food stocks are projected to decrease, following typical seasonal trends, as households are expected to increase their reliance on the market for food purchases. As income is expected to be sufficient to support market purchases for food, most households will likely continue to meet their food needs but are unable to cover nonfood expenses. 
• An El Niño event is currently ongoing and is expected to strengthen during 2026/27 rainy season. Below-average rainfall and delayed onset of the October 2026 to May 2027 rainy season are most likely. Southern and southwestern Zambia are anticipated to experience below-average rainfall along with above-average temperatures. This is expected to drive reductions in the area planted and agricultural labor opportunities and income, as the rain starts. As a result, households are expected to experience a gradual decline in purchasing power. 
• FEWS NET estimates that 500,000-749,999 people will need humanitarian food assistance during the peak lean season between December 2026 and January 2027. Food assistance needs are expected to rise gradually as household food stocks decline, market dependence increases, and purchasing power weakens, particularly among low-income households in southern and western Zambia. 

For more information, see the Zambia Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027.

Zimbabwe

Key messages

• Starting around October, ongoing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in typical deficit-producing areas in the south, east, west, and extreme north, which will persist through January 2027. Poor households can currently meet their minimum food needs with stocks from the recent harvest, but not their non-food needs. However, starting around October, an increasing number of households will have exhausted their own-produced food stocks as is typical, and become market-reliant amid weak purchasing power driven by below-average incomes and high prices. 
• Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected through January 2027 in most surplus-producing areas of the Mashonaland Provinces, supported by own-produced food stocks and income from crop sales, casual labor, and other sources. However, some areas, especially the less-productive communal farming areas in these provinces, are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes starting in October/November as own-produced food stocks diminish, and income becomes constrained.
• The 2025/26 harvest has increased cereal availability on the open markets, leading to seasonal maize grain price declines in many areas; however, prices remain elevated in some deficit-producing and isolated areas due to limited supply and weak market linkages. Maize meal demand has declined in many areas following the harvest, but remains high where staple cereal production was low. Despite recent fuel price reductions, fuel and transport costs remain above average since the escalation in the Middle East conflict in February, reducing disposable income and access to basic food and non-food needs, particularly among poor households. However, prices of most basic food and non-food commodities and exchange rates remain relatively stable. 
• Household incomes in most deficit-producing areas remain below average due to low or no crop and livestock sales; limited casual labor, self-employment, and remittances; and high competition for petty trade. In southern areas, the lack of Mopane worms (Gonimbrasia belina) has deprived communities and households of a seasonal income source. However, horticultural production, construction activities, thatch grass sales, and artisanal and small-scale gold mining are providing alternative income streams, helping households engaged in these opportunities to sustain some food and non‑food purchases.

For more information, see the Zimbabwe Food Security Outlook from June 2026 to January 2027.