Improved maize supplies trigger significant staple price declines in the region

• With improved cereal supplies from local and regional harvests, households in most parts of the region are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes that are expected to continue through January 2018. Pockets of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes are expected in selected parts of Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Madagascar between June and September, and are likely to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between October and January. A combination of poor rainfall performance and conflict has resulted in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes among households and populations in central and eastern DRC, and these outcomes are expected to continue throughout the outlook period.

• With most households consuming staple from their own production, maize market demand has significantly reduced. Most markets have become oversupplied, resulting in a substantial price decrease for maize grain and meal. For example, June maize grain prices in Zimbabwe and Malawi have declined to levels that are about 23 percent below the five-year average. However, for some countries including Mozambique and Zambia prices are decreasing but remain above 2016 levels and the five-year average. 

• Labor demand for harvesting and winter cropping, as well as household income earning opportunities in gardening continue to improve. Between September and October, land preparation for the 2017/18 season is expected to provide additional opportunities to poor households, enabling them to meet their food needs and other livelihood protection costs. 

Democratic Republic of the Congo         

• The crisis conditions in central Kasaï, which has been declared a military operations zone; displacing close to 20 percent of the rural population, disrupting basic social services and the flow of supplies to certain markets, and driving crop production levels for the 2017 “B” growing season below-average will have a major impact on access to household livelihoods during the outlook period, causing poor households to resort to the use of increasingly harmful survival strategies.
• The reported rainfall deficits in certain territories in Ituri, North-Kivu, South-Kivu, and Tanganyika disrupted the growing cycle of maize, bean, and potato crops sensitive to water stress.
• Damage caused by fall armyworms in the Southeast (Haut-Katanga, Lualaba, and Lomami) and the reportedly late start of the rains in these areas, maize harvests for the 2016-2017 “A” growing season got off to a later than usual start (in June 2017). The official resumption of maize exports by Zambia should ensure a certain measure of food availability in these areas, which could help stabilize trade flows on local markets between June and September 2017.
• Bird flu outbreaks in three territories in Ituri province, which, in the space of two months, has already killed closed to 21,594 ducks, 1,514 chickens, and 312 pigeons, is spreading. The number of outbreak areas jumped from 14 to 16 between the end of May and the middle of June 2017. Without mitigating measures, the control measures implemented by provincial authorities could affect the incomes of households dependent on poultry-raising activities. 

To learn more, read the complete June 2017  Democratic Republic of Congo Food Security Outlook.

Malawi

• The overall food security outcomes for Malawi are expected to be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until the next harvest in 2018, apart from a few localized areas in the extreme north and south that experienced abnormal dryness and Fall Armyworm (FAW) infestations. Since national production for major food crops is estimated to be slightly above average, most households are consuming food from their own production and this will continue throughout the consumption season. Typically, poorer households will need to supplement their own produced food with purchases. This will occur this year, and households will use incomes obtained through agricultural and off-farm labor.
• Malawi registered production increases in major food crops ranging from 5 to 34 percent above the five-year average. The country also recorded a maize carryover stock level of about 130,000 MT in ADMARC and the Strategic Grain Reserve. Based on these supplies, a positive food supply outlook is expected for the entire consumptions season. 
• Normal rainfall is expected for the next production season starting around October/November 2017. International forecast models indicated that ENSO neutral conditions are likely in southern Africa. These conditions are characterized by normal rainfall in the region. Normal rainfall will ensure a normal cropping season, which will maintain the favorable food security conditions.

To learn more, read the complete June 2017  Malawi Food Security Outlook.

Mozambique

• Due to above-average food availability from the 2016/17 season, most areas of Mozambique are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes as the majority of poor households are able to meet their basic food needs from their own production and access from markets, particularly due to relatively low prices. These outcomes are generally expected to continue until January 2018. Exceptions include the semiarid areas in the central region where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist given the slow recovery from the drought due to disrupted livelihoods caused by the recently ended armed conflict and irregular 2016/17 rainfall in these areas. Some vulnerable poor households are likely even facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.
• The country is generally experiencing above-average (5-year average) crop production, including in the chronically deficit southern areas, such as the interior semiarid areas of Gaza and Inhambane provinces. In contrast, parts of the previously conflict-affected semiarid areas in the central region, including parts of Caia, Chemba, and Maringue districts in Sofala Province, parts of Tambara district in Manica Province, and southern parts of Mutarara and Doa districts in Tete Province, production levels are below average.
• Most of the main monitored markets are adequately supplied with staple foods and other commodities. Maize grain prices have been decreasing significantly since January/February and are close to the five-year average. In the southern region, May maize grain prices decreased by 57 percent from February, while in the central and northern regions, they fell by 73 and 60 percent, respectively. Maize meal and rice prices have generally remained stable.

To learn more, read the complete June 2017 Mozambique Food Security Outlook.

Madagascar

• Although it is the beginning of the harvest period, food prices remain high in all parts of the country following the agricultural season’s below-average production. Prices of local rice in Mahajanga and Toamasina, areas that were severely impacted by dryness, rose by 28 to 38 percent between December 2016 and May 2017. Nevertheless, prices started to decline by 14 to 21 percent within the same period in other urban areas such as Ihosy and Fianarantsoa where production was near average and the harvest was beginning.
• Based on USDA FEWS NET Crop Tour findings regarding the progress of cropped areas and received rainfall, overall national rice production is estimated at around 3.2 million MT which is 20 percent lower than the 5-year average (4 million MT), and 15 percent lower than last year. Maize production is estimated at around 350,000 MT which is 6 percent below the 5-year average and 10 percent higher than last year. Cassava production will likely be around 3 million MT, which is near the 5-year average and 15 percent higher than last year.
• The Southeast of Madagascar (Livelihood Zone 19), that is already chronically vulnerable to food insecurity and poverty, was affected consecutively by multiple hazards this year: severe dryness since the end of 2016 and then floods following Cyclone Enawo in March 2017. This negatively impacted household livelihoods and crop production and lead to a current situation of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity, in a month when the main harvest is taking place. In addition, the district of Vangaindrano was affected by a tornado in May, which damaged many fruit and clove trees.
•  The situation in the far South (particularly Livelihood Zone 24) has improved compared to last year but remains in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in June 2017. Many households have made some recovered from the past three years of consecutive drought, and although the weather conditions were favorable for agriculture, farmers could not fully plant because of lack of agricultural inputs that were depleted during the years of drought. Thus, staple production is higher than last year but remains below average.
• In cyclone affected areas, people have recovered from the effects of Cyclone Enawo, particularly with the help of humanitarian assistance. These areas have shifted into Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity although food supply is still below normal and prices remain high.

To learn more, read the complete June 2017 Madagascar Food Security Outlook Report.

Zambia

• Despite the fall armyworm infestation experienced in most parts of the country and the very late distribution of subsidized inputs, Zambia managed to attain a record maize output due to good rainfall.  Maize production is estimated at 3.61 million MT. With a carryover stock level of 567,000 MT, total maize availability will exceed the national cereal requirement by 1.18 million MT, which will be available for export.
• Although the maize export ban was lifted in mid-May to encourage exports, the prevailing export tax of 10 percent on maize grain is likely to make Zambian maize uncompetitive in the regional market. There is a delay in the new supplies reaching markets because harvesting started later than usual due to atypical rains that extended into May. Maize prices have remained high much longer than usual due to the delayed harvest, but are likely to fall steeply by July.
• Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity is being experienced across the country with the increased green harvest and incoming new main harvest which has increased household food availability.
• Given the improved food availability at the household and national level, acute food insecurity is projected to be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) for the remainder of the outlook period.

To learn more, read the complete June 2017 Zambia Food Security Outlook.

Zimbabwe

• Above-average national maize and other crop harvests have improved food availability and access across the country. Poor households in various parts of the country are expected to realize enough crops to provide up to 3-4 months of food stocks. From June through September, Minimum (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes are expected in high cereal-producing areas, as well as some areas in cereal-deficit production areas. However, some areas in the cereal-deficit southern and marginal north are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.
• From October through January, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes are expected to continue in most areas in the surplus-producing north as households consume own-produced stock, and earn income from crop sales and labor opportunities. During these months, some areas in the cereal-deficit southern and marginal north will also continue to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are also expected in some areas and humanitarian assistance will be needed for poor households that have exhausted their food stocks, will be facing limited livelihood options, and will likely experience food gaps.
• Domestic remittance flows are expected to continue to be below average due to the current macroeconomic situation. Potential incomes from off-farm labor, self-employment, petty trading, and other activities will remain constrained from June to January due to cash shortages. The start of the 2017-18 rainy season across the southern Africa region is likely to be normal and average rainfall is expected for the next season. However, these normal rainfall conditions will only marginally improve livelihood options for rural and urban households with the national cash shortages expected to continue during the outlook period.

To learn more, read the complete June 2017 Zimbabwe Food Security Outlook.

Countries Monitored Remotelyⁱ

Lesotho

• Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security conditions are expected in Lesotho between June and September 2017. The food security situation has greatly improved due to the availability of food from household harvests, improved income, and decreasing staple prices. Along with these improvements, humanitarian assistance by many agencies has finally come to end. Beyond October 2017, as the lean season approaches, some pockets of Lesotho will likely begin to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2 outcomes).
• The main source of food is currently own crops from the main harvest. The harvesting of crops is still ongoing and this is also providing labor opportunities to very poor and poor households. Through this labor, households are receiving in-kind payments, which is further improving food availability. Household crop sales has improved income levels for households and is expected to be the main income source between the months of June and September. Once harvesting activities come to an end in a month, very poor and poor households will engage in off-farm labor opportunities, which are expected to be normal this year.
• Staple prices continue to decline in Lesotho. April prices for maize meal were lower than previous months and lower than prices during the same time last year. Increasing supplies of both locally and regionally produced cereals are contributing to this decline in price. The decrease in staple prices and increase in incomes are strengthening very poor and poor household purchasing power in Lesotho.

To learn more, read the complete June 2017  Lesotho Remote Monitoring Report.

^[i] With remote monitoring, an analyst typically works from a nearby regional office, relying on a network of partners for data. Compared to countries above, where FEWS NET has a local office, reporting on remote monitoring countries may offer less detail.