Minimal food insecurity outcomes to prevail over most parts of the region

• As the lean season peaks, FEWS NET estimates that most parts of the region will remain food secure throughout the outlook period. However pockets of acute food insecurity will persist in areas that faced reduced 2012/13 harvests. Food access in these areas has been problematic, and is likely to remain so unless households receive adequate food assistance from January to March 2014.
• From January to March, Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected in localized parts of Zimbabwe and Malawi in the presence of humanitarian assistance. In Zimbabwe, this is due to insufficient resource levels, with funds currently estimated at 60 percent. In parts of Malawi, though adequate resources were mobilized; some areas remain in Phase 2!, while newly identified households in one district are projected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until they begin receiving assistance in late February.
• Above average intra-regional trade is contributing in stabilizing staple food supplies. Despite tightening supplies, formal and informal cross border trade (especially exports from surplus producing parts of Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia and South Africa) is expected to continue to play a key role in supplying deficit area markets across the region (Figure 1).
• Prices remain high and are increasing faster in areas where supplies are atypically low. Localized production shortfalls in 2013 coupled with lower levels of carryover stocks, and strong extra-regional export demand resulted in lower levels of tradable supplies for the 2013/14 marketing season. Price levels are expected to remain high in the first quarter of the outlook period; but to stabilize and start dropping once the new harvest starts coming in (Figure 2).
• While the SARCOF seasonal forecast indicates normal to above normal January to March rains in the bulk of the region, the ECMWF, and other global models have downgraded their forecast and now show enhanced chances of normal to below normal rainfall in the northeastern and southwestern parts of the region. The downgrade is confirmed by low January rainfall observed across these areas as shown by poor soil moisture conditions (Figure 3).

FEWS NET’s Food Security Outlook for January to June 2014 is based on the regional assumptions  as well as national level assumptions.

Malawi

• The start of the agriculture season was delayed across parts of the central region and most of the south by 20-30 days. This will result in a delayed start of green consumption and this will lengthen the amount of time poor rural households will have to manage without access to food supplies from their own production.
• Crops in the south that were planted late due to the delayed rains could face moisture stress if a mid-season dry spell (around February) occurs. This dry spell could moderately-to-severely affect late planted crops, potentially impacting yield and production levels in the 2013/14 season.
• The humanitarian response plan for 2 million people is adequately funded and should improve acute food insecurity levels to Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in areas of concern in the north, central, and southern regions. However additional households have been identified in parts of KAS. Households in this area are scheduled to begin receiving assistance in late February, but until they begin receiving assistance they are projected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected from April to June, once household access to food increases with the new harvest.
• During the first quarter of the outlook period maize prices are likely to remain above last year’s levels and the five year average due to reduced local supplies in the lean period, high source market prices and increasing transportation costs. 

To learn more, read the complete Malawi Food Security Outlook.

Mozambique

• Most households across the country are experiencing Minimal acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1). Rural households are meeting their basic food requirements by accessing a variety of foods from previous cropping seasons, by expanding their typical livelihood strategies, and through market purchases. 
• In most monitored markets, staple food prices, especially maize, are stable and close to the five-year average, allowing most poor households to make the necessary market food purchases.
• Displaced households are facing acute food insecurity in areas affected by conflict in localized parts of Gorongosa, Chibabava, Maringue, Homoine and Funhalouro districts. Emergency humanitarian assistance is helping to minimize the needs of displaced people but it is unclear how long the assistance will be required and how the interruption of farming activities will impact main season harvests.
• Overall, household access to food stocks from the previous season, relatively affordable food prices, the early availability of green foods, and the start of the harvest from January to June will maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes throughout the country during the outlook period.

To learn more, read the complete Mozambique Food Security Outlook.

Zambia

• Food insecurity outcomes are expected to be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) during the January to June period despite some populations mostly in the south experiencing livelihood protection deficits. Consumers continue to face high staple food prices and this situation is expected to persist up to the peak price period of March.
• The supply of maize to millers and communities by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) should stabilize prices and improve the supply of maize in rural areas; reducing the distance households travel to purchase maize meal. 
• Maize stock levels remain adequate to meet demand during the outlook period of January to June. The export ban and strict policing along the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) border is contributing to maintaining comfortable national level stocks. Informal exports to the DRC and Tanzania have drastically decreased, while the atypical large maize flows from Zambia into Malawi have also dropped nearly 50 percent since on-farm supplies are now substantially lower.
• The SARCOF forecast update for the January to March period indicates a likelihood of normal to above normal rainfall, similar to the earlier seasonal forecast released by the Department of Meteorology in October. This could entail some localized flooding in flood prone areas of the southern and western regions of the country. The forecast update also implies that there will be recovery of crops in areas that experienced a delayed start of season and erratic rainfall.

To learn more, read the complete Zambia Food Security Outlook.

Zimbabwe

• As the lean season progresses the food security situation is deteriorating, and based on earlier projections by the ZIM VAC, the proportion of the food insecure population will increase by 45 percent between January and February. Poor households in the southwestern areas are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) through March, while most households in the north will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) outcomes. Between April and June, Minimal outcomes are expected across the country once the main harvest is underway.
• Humanitarian assistance through the Seasonal Targeted Assistance (STA) program is currently underway, but is limited by funding shortfalls. This has resulted in an over 40 percent caseload reduction along with the distribution of half rations in December and January. Without additional resources, the STA half rations may end during the peak of the lean season.
• Both maize grain and meal is available in most northern areas; however in southern parts of the country only maize meal is available. In comparison to the same time last year, national prices for maize meal and grain are 25 percent higher than average. In parts of the southern region, maize meal prices are ranging between 17-50 percent higher than the same time last year.
• Rainfall started early in the central parts of the country and late in the extreme northern and southern areas. Nonetheless most of the country received normal to above‐normal rainfall in the first half of the 2013/14 agriculture season. Most farmers received seeds and planted on time, so the prospects for a normal harvest are good. 

To learn more, read the complete Zimbabwe Food Security Outlook.

Angola

• Seasonal rainfall has not improved as forecasted. The areas worst affected by drought (mostly Namibe and Cunene Provinces) are yet to receive rains with some regularity. Thus, FEWS NET’s projected improvement of both pastures and the availability of drinking water for cattle has yet to materialize. Consequently, cattle body conditions are not improving and the expected gradual return of pastoralists to their areas of origin will be pushed back further.
• Poor households in the Southern livestock livelihood zone continue to depend primarily on government food assistance, imports from Namibia, and supplies from neighboring Huila Province. Thus, Namibe and Cunene provinces are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food security outcomes through June. The Government of Angola has revised its food assistance program and currently plans to gradually assist six worst affected Provinces up to July 2014.

To learn more, read the complete Angola Remote Monitoring Report.

Lesotho

• Stable food prices, normal income opportunities associated with agriculture, ongoing poverty reduction and humanitarian programming, and the start of green consumption and main harvest in the coming months are all expected to contribute to continued sufficient household food access, resulting in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity outcomes from January to June.
• While cumulative rainfall amounts have improved this season, they remain below average. Normal to above normal rainfall is expected for the January to April period and harvest prospects are better across the country in comparison to last year.

To learn more, read the complete Lesotho Remote Monitoring Report.

Madagascar

• Several parts of the country will continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes in the period January through March, due to multiple shocks during the 2012/2013 crop production season. However, between April and June, food security will improve to Phase 1 (None or Minimal) with the rice, maize and cowpea harvests.
• Since October 2013, the FAO/Ministry of Agriculture has mounted a locust control program in the 17 infested areas. This first campaign, which will extend through August 2014, is expected to reduce the likelihood of large-scale losses of crops in the main 2013/2014 growing season. In general, the situation is under control, despite expected infestations in transitional areas between Tsiroanomandidy and Ihosy during the rainy season (January through April).

To learn more, read the complete Madagascar Remote Monitoring Report.

Tanzania

• Due to a late start and poor distribution of Vuli rains from mid-September to January, below-average harvests are expected in localized areas of the northeastern regions and central marginal areas of Dodoma and Iringa. Kagera region is still coping with reduced banana harvests due to disease.
• Households with below-average Vuli food production will likely run out of food stocks in April instead of July. An early dependence on markets combined with limited income generating activities has resulted in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in the areas affected by below-average Vuli production. Households in the rest of the country are expected to remain at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity between now and June 2014.
• Above-average maize harvests in the southern highlands have stabilized national production levels, despite the northern and central area’s poor harvest. Localized price increases may occur for maize in reduced production areas, but nationwide prices remain stable. Due to a poor bean harvest, prices are higher than normal.

To learn more, read the complete Tanzania Remote Monitoring Report.

About Scenario Development
To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming six months. Learn more at http://www.fews.net/our-work/our-work/scenario-development.