Key Message Update

Late or erratic start of the season and below average rainfall will affect agriculture labor opportunities

October 2015
2015-Q4-10-30-southern-africa-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The start of the 2015-16 agriculture season is likely to be delayed or erratic within the region. Based on the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum and national forecasts in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Lesotho, Zambia, and South Africa, there is a high likelihood of below average rains for the October to December period. The beginning of cultivation and other farming activities are expected to be impacted by at late or erratic start of season and below average rains. 

  • Poor households in maize deficit areas of Zimbabwe, Malawi, Madagascar, and Angola are relying entirely on market purchases for staple foods. Income earning opportunities for poor households are expected to be below normal during the October to December period due to the poor rains that are historically associated with El Niño events in the region. Some of the farm related activities that households rely on for cereal in-kind or cash for purchases usually include cultivation and weeding. 

  • Food access among poor households in maize deficit areas is already constrained due to high food prices. As the lean period sets in across the region, access to food is expected to worsen. Poor households in the most affected parts of the region, including southern parts of Zimbabwe, Malawi, an Madagascar are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes in, the absence of humanitarian assistance. These outcomes are expected through March, until the 2015-16 harvest. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics