Cereal price increases to worsen food security situation in maize deficit parts of the region

Currently, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes are being experienced by poor households that experienced poor harvests in southern parts of Zimbabwe, southern and central Malawi, Madagascar, and southeastern and western parts of Zambia. In the absence of humanitarian assistance, these outcomes will deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in southern Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, and Madagascar between July and September. 

The 2014/2015 harvest in most countries is below average, however regional cereal availability is currently near average due to significant carry-over stocks in main maize surplus producing countries, including South Africa, Zambia, and Tanzania. On the other hand, international competition for South African maize grain and high demand for Zambian maize grain by several East African countries is likely to result in the region experiencing constrained cereal supplies, especially from September, when most structurally maize-deficit countries in the region begin to increase their reliance on imports for staple cereal.

Prices in maize surplus countries (including South Africa and Zambia) are generally following seasonal trends by declining during the harvest period between May and June. However, seasonal price trends in most maize-deficit areas are atypically high for this time of the year, and at least 10 percent higher than the previous year. Maize prices in deficit areas are projected to remain higher than their respective 2014 levels and the five-year average throughout the outlook period.