Assumptions for Quarterly Food Security Analysis

• Recent increases in maize and fuel prices in South Africa, coupled with an anticipated drop in maize production in South Africa and locally, are likely to increase food prices from May, weakening the purchasing power of poor households in Lesotho.

• Due to prolonged dry spells experienced from late February for most of southern and eastern Zambia, below average crop yields are expected. Late planted crops are stressed and reaching permanent wilting point with minimal prospects for recovery. 

• The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee rapid food security assessment in February has identified about 620,000 people in 17 districts across the country that will face acute food security outcomes from March to July and possibly the entire 2015/2016 consumption season due to heavy rains and flooding negatively affecting people’s livelihoods.

• Prolonged dry spells and erratic seasonal rainfall in the southern parts of Zimbabwe, including Matebeleland North, and parts of Midlands and Manicaland Provinces, resulted in severe crop wilting and loss. The main harvests in these areas is expected to be one of the worst in the past five years. Poor households in these traditionally cereal-deficit areas are finding it difficult to afford essential non-food items and are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) by April.

FEWS NET’s Food Security Outlook reports for April - September 2015 are based on the following regional assumptions:

Agroclimatology

• Following a late start of the season, rainfall patterns across the region were mixed. Based on the March SADC update, average to above –average rains are expected from March to April in the northeastern parts of the region, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, southern parts of Tanzania, Malawi, northern Mozambique, and eastern Zambia.
• In the southern half of the region, rainfall performance has been poor since February and there are further projections of below-normal rains in southern parts of Zimbabwe, South Africa, southern Angola, Namibia, Botswana, and southern parts of Mozambique from March through May. These dry conditions will likely result in poor crop performance. Based on Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) data, these areas show below-average crop conditions and the likely early cessation of rains in these areas will affect crop maturity and may result in a below-average harvest (Figure 1).   

Farm and off-farm labor opportunities and remittances

• Agriculture related labor opportunities in most of parts of the region are likely to remain within typical levels and the main activities will include harvesting, processing, storage, and marketing from April through June. However below-average opportunities are expected in areas that received below-average rainfall including South Africa, southern parts of Zimbabwe, Namibia, southern Mozambique, and southern parts of Madagascar. As  is typical during the July to September period, on farm activities are expected to start decreasing. 
• Migrant labor opportunities in South Africa are expected to be limited, especially with the significant reduction of the area cropped this season and projections of a below-average harvest across the country.  In addition to this, continued high labor costs associated with demands for higher minimum wages and the protracted labor disputes in the mining sector will likely reduce migrant opportunities.
• Starting in August, remittances will likely play an important role for households in southern parts of Zimbabwe and Mozambique where production levels are expected to below-average. Affected households will require additional incomes in order to make early cereal purchases on the market. Reduced migrant labor opportunities in South Africa and tightening economic conditions will likely result in reduced levels of remittances to Zimbabwe and Mozambique.

• With dry conditions experienced in the southern and western parts of the region between January and March, the 2015 production outlook for the region will likely be lower than last year’s levels and the five-year average. In some of the areas that experienced heavy rainfall and flooding, including Madagascar, Malawi, and Mozambique, a combination of the late start of the season and the adverse effects of flooding increased chances of reduced production levels. Nevertheless, regional cereal supply is expected to be average between April and September as supplies are boosted by  new harvests complimented by significant  carryover stock from surplus countries including South Africa, Zambia and Tanzania.
• The start of the main harvest in April- June is expected to reduce household reliance on market purchases for staple foods, and this will reduce the pressure on local market prices.  However, delayed harvests expected in most parts of the region due to late onset of the rains, likely keep prices higher for a longer period than is normal.
• South Africa, the region’s largest producer and exporter of maize grain is expecting a maize harvest that will be nearly 20 percent below the five-year average and 32 percent lower than production from the previous season.  This decrease is a result of both a late start of season and prolonged dry conditions in February in the main production areas in the Free State and North West Provinces.  However, large carryover stocks from the previous year are currently available due to the well above average harvest and relatively low regional and international demand for grain during the 2014/15 consumption period.  South Africa is therefore likely to have adequate exportable surpluses to meet regional maize demand.  Based on the February maize balance sheet, South Africa projects exports of around  0.74 million MT, while maintaining the desired reserve stocks of 1.22 million MT. These projected exports are about 7 percent higher than the regional five-year export average.
• Zambia and Tanzania will have above-average carryover stocks from last year’s harvest. Zambia, is projecting a near average 2015 harvest and with a large carryover stock from last year that is estimated to be over 1 million MT. Zambia will have adequate cereal supplies during the 2015/16 marketing year. However, localized cereal availability constraints are expected in Mozambique’s central provinces and Malawi’s southern region due to flooding that caused crop damage and stock losses in January.
• Regional cereal prices are expected to follow seasonal trends but are projected to be slightly above last year’s prices and the recent five-year average due to average to below average harvests prospects in the region.  With prices in Tanzania being below the five-year average, increased demand is expected from countries including southeastern Kenya, Rwanda, and Burundi between April and June. These exports will likely increase due to the rising need to dispose of stocks from the previous year in anticipation of the harvest in May, especially in the main producing southern regions of Tanzania.
• The start of the main harvest in April- June is expected to reduce household reliance on market purchases for staple foods, and this will reduce the pressure on local market prices.  However, delayed harvests expected in most parts of the region due to late onset of the rains, likely keep prices higher for a longer period than is normal. Maize grain prices on the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) will likely follow seasonal trends and decline between April and July once supplies from the main harvest become available. The prices will likely significantly decrease from the recent spike in February when prices rose by 27 percent from January. This market spike was probably in response to the dry conditions and worsening crop prospects following the publication of the revised production estimates. Between April and September, SAFEX prices are expected to  trend above the recent five-year average and last year’s prices.  Zambian maize prices are currently the highest in the region and may decline in May/June, during the post-harvest period, especially if national production levels are average.

• During the outlook period, humanitarian assistance needs are expected to be below average across the region as most poor households increase reliance on own production and labor exchange. However, emergency food assistance is expected to continue in flood and cyclone affected parts of the region, including Madagascar and parts of Mozambique’s main river basins and parts of Malawi. This assistance will be provided mainly by WFP, NGOs and government programs. Input and seeds distribution will also be provided to enable second season planting in areas where this is practiced. 
• National level vulnerability and food security assessments between April and May in most countries in the region will help inform the severity and magnitude of acute food insecurity in affected countries during the 2015-16 consumption period including the types of external assistance needed to assist affected and vulnerable households. 

• According to the International Red Locust Control Organization for Central and Southern Africa’s (IRLCO-CSA) February report, outbreaks of Armyworm (Spodoptera exempta Walker) were mainly limited to Sofala, Manica and Tete provinces of Mozambique. An estimated total of 3,326 hectares of cropped land and pasture was infested and affected crops included rice, maize, and sorghum.  Based on the report, there is low to medium likelihood of further attacks in most parts of the region from March through April.  The Armyworm outbreak season is coming to an end in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. However Tanzania requires constant monitoring as there is potential for Armyworm attacks after the onset of rains in March.
• Red Locust hoppers are likely to fledge into young immature adults in the months of March and April in all Red Locust outbreak areas including Ikuu-Katavi plains, Malagarasi Basin and Wembere plains (Tanzania), Lake Chilwa/Lake Chiuta plains (Malawi), Buzi-Gorongosa plains (Mozambique), the Dimba plains (Mozambique), and Kafue Flats (Zambia). The IRLCO-CSA advised Ministries of Agriculture in the affected areas to partner them in carrying out aerial surveys to establish the status of Red Locust populations and implement proper control measures. If uncontrolled, the locust are likely to present significant threat to crops in identified outbreak and neighboring areas in Southern and Eastern Africa.
• In Madagascar, households reported a decrease in locust population from last year but funding problems are restricting FAO/Ministry of Agriculture locust treatment campaigns and raising fears of a resurgence of locust attacks on crops.
• The IRLCO-CSA also identified quelea birds as problem for small grain cereal growers (rice, sorghum, wheat) in Tanzania (Dodoma, Siginda, Shinyanga, Morogoro, Mbeya and  Kilimanjaro regions) and in Zimbabwe (Masvingo, Matebeland South, Mashonaland Central Provinces).