Season 2 production begins against backdrop of widespread continuing conflict

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Despite the ceasefire signed on July 30, 2024 between the DRC and Rwanda, clashes continue in the territories of Rutshuru and Masisi, resulting in new waves of displaced people. According to OCHA, almost 56,000 new internally displaced people (IDPs) have been identified in the localities of Kinyandoni and Kiseguru in Rutshuru. In August (the crucial planting period for season 2), M23 rebels ordered some 160,000 people in the Bambo locality (one of the region’s agricultural surplus-producing areas) to evacuate and abandon their fields. If these conditions persist, it would lead to a shortage of harvests in these localities and exacerbate food access for poor households.
At the start of the lean season in conflict zones (Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, and Mai-Ndombe), many IDP households have no access to their fields or to temporary agricultural labor opportunities and in-kind payments typical for the time of year. These households have rapidly depleted their limited food stocks and are market dependent in a context of below-average incomes and high food prices. Households are therefore forced to adopt negative coping strategies to mitigate food consumption gaps, such as selling their last possessions or begging. High numbers of IDPs are increasing competition for resources and income opportunities and exacerbating high food and non-food item prices. As a result, most of these areas remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). However, some conflict-affected areas (Djugu, Masisi, and Rutshuru territories) are experiencing increased numbesr of people facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.
Agroclimatic conditions are favorable for the resumption of the agricultural season in September in the bimodal zones. According to NOAA, average to above-average rainfall is forecast for the September-November period in central and southeastern regions, respectively, with increased likelihood of positive effects in Sud-Kivu, southeastern Maniema, and Tanganyika. In addition, 814,000 displaced people have returned to their homes since the start of the year, the vast majority of them to eastern DRC. A relative reduction in flooding and increased participation of returnee households in agricultural activities this season is likely to contribute to an improvement in food availability and access in these areas.
The Congolese franc has been stable since May 2024, with slight depreciation (by 2.14 percent) against the USD, according to the Bank of Congo. Year-to-date inflation slowed to 8.16 percent in 2024, compared with 16.08 percent in the same period in 2023. According to the International Monetary Fund, the DRC's economic growth rate has stood at 6 percent since the end of June 2024. This macroeconomic outlook has had a positive impact on price trends; most product prices remained stable during the month. However, the price of maize and rice increased by an average of 3.8 and 1.12 percent, respectively, on the main markets compared to August 2023. Although these increases are modest, the cumulative effects of past currency devaluation and high food inflation continue to weigh on households' limited purchasing power.
In the central basin areas (former Equateur and Orientale provinces), many poor households have not recovered from the historic flooding over the past two agricultural seasons. These households are likely to employ coping strategies such as consuming cheaper food, reducing the number of meals, reducing non-food essential expenses (such as education and medical costs), or selling remaining assets not lost in the floods. As a result, most of these areas will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), with the worst flood-affected areas in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Democratic Republic of Congo Key Message Update September 2024: Season 2 production begins against backdrop of widespread continuing conflict, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.