Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing during lean season peak following worsening insecurity in the east

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Conflict-affected areas in the eastern part of the country — particularly North Kivu, Ituri, and South Kivu — are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through May 2026, given the persistence of volatile insecurity that significantly constrains agricultural activities and trade flows. In some hotspots — especially the territories of Mwenga, Shabunda, Masisi, and Rutshuru — an increase in the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and worse is anticipated due to a localized escalation of fighting in November. During the peak of the lean season, many households — especially the recently displaced and newly returned — are forced to use negative coping strategies such as consuming cheaper, less preferred foods or cutting other essential expenditures such as health and education. Below-average Season 2 (S2) harvests are expected to improve food consumption only temporarily, keeping needs above average.
In bimodal areas, the lean season will continue through December (or into early January in the west). Food availability will remain low, even after the S2 harvest in areas affected by intercommunal conflict (notably parts of Tanganyika, the three Kasaï provinces, and Kwamouth territory). Many poor households will struggle to offset consumption gaps, likely resorting to negative strategies such as reducing meals and essential expenditures. These areas will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Parts of Équateur Province are also expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as they continue to recover from past severe flooding. Areas in the central-eastern and southeastern regions that are contending with the effects of past floods or a high concentration of internally displaced persons (IDPs) will remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) despite a relatively productive S2 season.
The start of the main rains was slightly delayed in the unimodal southeast. Below-average rainfall is expected from October to December across much of the country, although rainfall should still be sufficient for agricultural production. However, given increasingly erratic rainfall patterns in the DRC over the past two years, the risk of a third consecutive year of severe flash flooding will persist, particularly during the peak of Season 1 rains in low-lying areas of the Congo River basin. Near-record water levels in Lake Albert and Lake Tanganyika are also expected to worsen and continue to drive localized flooding. Flooding could exacerbate food insecurity in lowland areas and along waterways where flooding in recent years has already eroded poor households’ livelihoods.
Staple food prices show a general downward trend, mainly due to the strong appreciation of the CDF in the third quarter of 2025. However, variations persist by area, especially in conflict-affected areas. Starting in November, the national average price of white maize flour fell by 27 percent compared to the same period last year and by 11.5 percent compared to the three-year average. This trend reflects a slight improvement in purchasing power and food affordability. In addition, the appreciation of the national currency is easing other inflationary pressures, and the annual inflation rate has slowed to 2.5 percent, strengthening household purchasing capacity. Nevertheless, food prices remain high in conflict-affected areas, and overall purchasing power remains constrained after several years of high inflation and currency depreciation.
Since November, new clashes have erupted, worsening security conditions in Mwenga and Shabunda, where fighting has intensified, triggering population displacement and disrupting agricultural and petty trade activities. At the same time, the areas of Mweso (Masisi), Walikale, and Bwito (Rutshuru) remain extremely unstable, with near-daily clashes between M23, the FARDC, and Wazalendo groups, despite the framework agreement signed in November. In September 2025, IOM recorded a total of 3,511,295 IDPs in the eastern region of the country, a figure likely exceeded due to new waves of displacement following recent fighting. Pressure on host communities remains high, and food and health needs are substantial. This situation could increase the number of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse during the lean season, undermining food security and agricultural production in these areas.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Democratic Republic of the Congo Key Message Update November 2025: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing during lean season peak following worsening insecurity in the east, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.