A good start to the agricultural season favored by normal rainfall in the east of the country

Normal rainfall at the beginning of the agricultural season in much of the eastern part of the country allowed a normal start to the 2019-20 agricultural season with the planting of key food crops such as maize, groundnuts and beans in early November 2019. However, in the Southeast, there have been delays in rainfall since October 2019, which is detrimental to crop development, particularly for maize.

New FARDC offensives against local armed groups and ADF in and around Beni territory, Ituri province, have led to new population movements.  According to local civil society, thousands of families from Beni, North Kivu province, are flocking to neighbouring towns. This movement has been observed since early November in the localities of Oicha, Mbau, Mayi moya and Eringeti, which will likely result in poor harvests at the end of the agricultural season.

An atypical surge in maize flour prices since July 2019 in most eastern markets (Lubumbashi, Kananga, Tshikapa and Mbujimayi) could limit household access to this staple food, at the peak of the lean season in these challenging areas. This is partly due to the continued ban on imports from Zambia for this specific commodity and could affect availability in these areas.

The food security situation during the first half of the scenario period (October 2019 to January 2020), which alternates between the peak of the lean season in November and the beginning of harvests in December 2019, particularly in the northeast and central-east of the country (Sankuru, Maniema, the former Katanga and Aru) it is likely there will be an improvement in food consumption and a shift towards Stressed (IPC Phase 2) while Tanganyika, Kasai, North Kivu, and parts of Ituri will remain in a Crisis (IPC Phase 3).