Key Message Update

A good start to the agricultural season favored by normal rainfall in the east of the country

November 2019

November 2019 - January 2020

Carte de Résultats estimés les plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, octobre 2019 à janvier 2020: Minimal (Phase 1 de l'IPC) dans le nord, Stress(Phase 2 de l'IPC) dans le sud-est, et Sud Kivu/nord Maniema, et Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC) dans les Kasais, Tanganyika, sud du Maniema, Nord Kivu, et l'ouest d'Ituri

February - May 2020

Carte de Résultats estimés les plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, février à mai 2020: Minimal (Phase 1 de l'IPC) dans le nord, Stress(Phase 2 de l'IPC) dans le sud-est, et Sud Kivu/nord Maniema, et Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC) dans les Kasais, Tanganyika, sud du Maniema, Nord Kivu, et l'ouest d'Ituri

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Normal rainfall at the beginning of the agricultural season in much of the eastern part of the country allowed a normal start to the 2019-20 agricultural season with the planting of key food crops such as maize, groundnuts and beans in early November 2019. However, in the Southeast, there have been delays in rainfall since October 2019, which is detrimental to crop development, particularly for maize.

  • New FARDC offensives against local armed groups and ADF in and around Beni territory, Ituri province, have led to new population movements.  According to local civil society, thousands of families from Beni, North Kivu province, are flocking to neighbouring towns. This movement has been observed since early November in the localities of Oicha, Mbau, Mayi moya and Eringeti, which will likely result in poor harvests at the end of the agricultural season.

  • An atypical surge in maize flour prices since July 2019 in most eastern markets (Lubumbashi, Kananga, Tshikapa and Mbujimayi) could limit household access to this staple food, at the peak of the lean season in these challenging areas. This is partly due to the continued ban on imports from Zambia for this specific commodity and could affect availability in these areas.

  • The food security situation during the first half of the scenario period (October 2019 to January 2020), which alternates between the peak of the lean season in November and the beginning of harvests in December 2019, particularly in the northeast and central-east of the country (Sankuru, Maniema, the former Katanga and Aru) it is likely there will be an improvement in food consumption and a shift towards Stressed (IPC Phase 2) while Tanganyika, Kasai, North Kivu, and parts of Ituri will remain in a Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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