Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in conflict-affected zones despite the green harvest

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Conflict-affected areas in the east of the country are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with some populations in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) along frontline areas. Violence in the DRC continues unabated with ongoing clashes, despite the continued withdrawal of M23 rebels from certain localities in South Kivu and North Kivu. In May, fighting was concentrated in the highlands of Fizi and Kalehe, as well as in parts of Masisi territory. Meanwhile, attacks by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) against local populations continue in the territories of Mambasa (Ituri) and Beni (North Kivu), where they have killed more than 130 people since March. These attacks are driving increasing population displacement, with approximately 300,000 people displaced between January 1 and May 15.
In the central basin provinces and some provinces in the center and southwest, households are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to structural constraints, including limited access to quality seeds, deteriorating road infrastructure, and crop diseases affecting cassava and bananas. Relatively stable provinces in the west and southeast are expected to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) due to economic integration with Kinshasa, which enables households to generate income and access food through local markets. Other households in these areas rely on additional economic opportunities such as petty trade, livestock sales, fishing, hunting, and gathering.
Generally typical rainfall across most of the country has supported the continuation of agricultural activities during Season 1 (S1). However, flooding observed in parts of North Kivu, South Kivu, Maniema, Kasai, Lomami, Tshopo, Kinshasa, and Tanganyika provinces during April and May caused significant damage to road infrastructure, swept away homes, submerged mining sites, and destroyed hectares of land through recurrent flooding and landslides. Dozens of people were killed and many lost their livelihoods, worsening food insecurity in the flood- and landslide-affected areas.
Despite the start of S1 green harvests in eastern and east-central DRC, improvements in household food security and livelihoods remain limited. In May, poor households continue to face difficulties accessing food during the lean season due to depleted food stocks and persistent insecurity. Limited access to fields, disruptions to agricultural activities caused by violence, and repeated displacement are reducing the expected benefits of S1 in several eastern areas. In the southeastern unimodal zone, seasonal harvests began in mid-April. However, current season harvests are expected to be below normal due to the late onset of rains during the agricultural season.
Developments in the Middle East continue to disrupt petroleum product supplies to the DRC, leading to sustained increases in fuel prices and gradual increases in the cost of essential goods. Between February and mid-May, prices for gasoline, diesel, and refined oil increased by 24 percent, 23 percent, and 14 percent, respectively, although they remained stable compared to April. Rising transportation and distribution costs across the country are driving staple food prices above typical seasonal trends. The price of white maize flour increased in Beni, Bukavu, and Uvira by 19.9 percent, 9.6 percent, and 6.2 percent, respectively, in mid-May compared to February. In many areas already affected by insecurity and low incomes, poor households are increasingly reducing non-food expenditures to cope with rising food costs.
The Bundibugyo strain Ebola virus disease outbreak, declared on May 15 in Mungbwalu, Djugu territory (Ituri), has spread to several locations, including Bunia (Ituri), Butembo, Beni, and Goma (North Kivu), Kabare (South Kivu), and in Uganda. This led the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on May 17. Rwanda and Uganda have closed their borders, disrupting small-scale cross-border trade. The immediate impact on acute food insecurity remains limited and localized, as livelihoods in the affected areas had already been weakened by repeated conflicts that had disrupted markets and incomes. In the medium term, prolonged restrictions could further disrupt cross-border trade and market functioning in northern North Kivu and Ituri, which depend on imports. This could result in higher prices and reduced labor demand due to possible future self-isolation measures and movement restrictions, on which internally displaced persons and poor households depend for their livelihoods.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Democratic Republic of the Congo Key Message Update May - September 2026: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in conflict-affected zones despite the green harvest, 2026.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.