Conflict escalation in early 2025 and flooding impacts are reducing market supply

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By the end of 2024, FEWS NET had projected Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through May 2025 in the conflict-affected areas of North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Mai-Ndombe, due to violence from armed groups, particularly M23 and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). FEWS NET also projected Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Tanganyika due to clashes between Luba and Batwa militias, and in flood-prone areas (especially Équateur, South Kivu, and Tanganyika). Elsewhere in the DRC, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes were anticipated, largely driven by chronic and structural drivers of food insecurity. FEWS NET estimated that 14.00 to 14.99 million people (about 10 to 15 percent of the population) in the DRC would need food assistance through May 2025. Food aid deliveries were deemed essential to prevent Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes among displaced populations in the northeast.
Between July and December 2025, FEWS NET anticipates that food assistance needs will remain high due to multiple and compounding shocks. The rapid intensification and territorial expansion of conflict in the east since early 2025 has caused massive displacements, disrupted the Season 2 harvest and the start of Season 1, and led to a spike in prices of essential food and non-food items. While some of the most extreme price increases have subsided, needs are expected to rise further during the lean season until the Season 1 green harvest in December. Additionally, continued flash flooding in lowland areas, along with a resurgence of several epidemics (cholera, mpox), are likely to further worsen food insecurity. Food assistance will be necessary to mitigate consumption gaps and prevent further deterioration of food security conditions, especially for newly displaced persons.
Large-scale fighting between the M23 and the FARDC (Congolese armed forces) has calmed since its peak in April 2025, and the intensity of the conflict is expected to decrease in the coming months. However, despite the signing of a peace agreement in Washington between the DRC government and Rwanda, and a letter of intent between the DRC and the AFC/M23 rebel group (both in July), clashes persist between M23 rebels and Wazalendo militias in North Kivu and South Kivu. Meanwhile, in Ituri, various militia groups and the FARDC continue to fight in Djugu and Irumu territories, while the ADF continues to carry out attacks on civilians in border areas of North Kivu and Ituri. Additionally, CODECO remains very active in Ituri and North Kivu, and new incursions by Mobondo militiamen have been reported in Kwamouth and Bagata territories in Mai-Ndombe Province.
The escalation of hostilities has caused thousands of deaths and led to social trauma, disrupted trade flows, and access to essential services such as food, water, and electricity. These conflicts have triggered new population displacements, and the food systems in host areas are and will remain under significant strain until December 2025. Since the start of the year, over 1.4 million people have been newly displaced, bringing the total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the country to about 5.92 million. Even though some households have returned to their places of origin, the earlier displacement of predominantly agricultural households has directly impacted agricultural production, which is expected to be drastically reduced in the areas most affected by the recent conflict expansion. Furthermore, major trade routes between urban centers such as Goma-Bukavu-Uvira and Goma-Lubero-Beni are expected to remain weak, resulting in higher food prices in regional markets.
Despite the escalation of conflict, the macroeconomic environment remains stable. Inflationary pressures continue to ease due to tight monetary policy. In June, the annual inflation rate stood at 8.5 percent, the lowest level in three years. Currency depreciation has also been moderate, with the annual depreciation rate remaining nearly stable since mid-2024. In fact, the CDF depreciated by only 0.82 percent on the parallel market since the start of the year. Internationally, this monetary stability has been further supported by an increase in foreign reserves. However, the war in the East has had a negative impact on the national budget, and a growing fiscal deficit is expected due to insufficient revenues.
For over two years, multiple weather shocks with excessive rainfall have led to repeated flooding in several provinces. The damage from flooding has affected infrastructure and livelihoods. In Kinshasa, for example, in June about 13,000 people lost their homes due to the rising waters of the Congo River and its tributaries. In rural areas, flood victims lost access to their livelihoods, and recovery is likely to take time. As a result, localized declines in agricultural productivity are expected, leading to a growing dependence on expensive food purchases for the most affected households.
As the number of displaced persons increases and flooding continues, the DRC is experiencing the worst resurgence of epidemics in recent history. According to the National Institute of Public Health (INSP), there has been a sharp resurgence of cholera in several provinces. Tshopo is the most affected, followed by South Kivu and Kinshasa, where an average of 130 cases per week is being reported. Since the start of 2025, over 33,500 confirmed cases have been recorded in 17 provinces. However, mpox cases have been steadily declining for the past six weeks. The rapid spread of epidemics is straining the health system and is likely to worsen with the recurring floods. These epidemics are putting additional pressure on affected areas, limiting access to food, and worsening food insecurity and malnutrition.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Democratic Republic of Congo Key Message Update July 2025: Conflict escalation in early 2025 and flooding impacts are reducing market supply, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.