A below-average harvest and early start to the lean season are expected in eastern areas of the country due to conflict.

July 2021 marks the end of the agricultural season B harvests in the northeast and central-east regions, which are estimated to be below the five-year average. This low production results in a short duration of stocks, with the lean season beginning one month earlier in August 2021. Despite below-average production, poor households will be able to use various coping strategies to fill their food gaps until the end of the lean season in December 2021.

In Ituri and North Kivu provinces, since the government declared Marshall Law on May 6, armed groups have changed their modus operandi as they continue to be pursued by the national army. According to civil society in the two provinces, the number of attacks on civilians does not speak in favor of the Marshall Law in place. This situation limits the movement of people and has led thousands of people to abandon their fields at the end of the harvest season. According to OCHA, the number of newly displaced people in the last three months is estimated at approximately 386,000 in Ituri and North Kivu provinces.

In the highlands of Fizi, Mwenga, and Uvira, the rise of inter-communal tensions and the military operations of the FARDC against the local armed groups in early July 2021 caused the displacement of nearly 211,000 people, according to OCHA. The displaced people lost their livelihood assets because of the looting and burning of their homes. This situation disrupts pastoral activities during the transhumance period and those of farmers preparing for agricultural season A.

New cases of COVID-19 continue to rise, in part due to the presence of the Delta variant, in the context of a very low vaccination rate. According to the Ministry of Health, as of July 26, 2021, the DRC has recorded 48,768 confirmed positive cases, increasing 21 percent compared to the previous month. At this rate, the tightening of preventive measures by the government to stop the chain of contamination is likely. These measures would undermine the economic recovery efforts undertaken since the beginning of the pandemic. However, neighboring countries such as Rwanda and Uganda have tightened restrictions on the movement of people across their borders, which may have implications for cross-border trade.

Despite the post-harvest period between July and September, the conflict zones in the northeast and central east will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), including Ituri, South Kivu, North Kivu, Tanganyika, and southern Kasai. The provinces of Lomami, Sankuru, Kasai- Oriental, and ex-Katanga, which are relatively calm, will remain under Stress (IPC Phase 2), while Haut-Uele, Bas-Uélé, and Tshopo in Minimal (IPC Phase 1).