Key Message Update

Severe flooding in the Center-East could lead to significant crop losses

January 2020

January 2020

Carte de Résultats estimés les plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, octobre 2019 à janvier 2020: Minimal (Phase 1 de l'IPC) dans le nord, Stress(Phase 2 de l'IPC) dans le sud-est, et Sud Kivu/nord Maniema, et Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC) dans les Kasais, Tanganyika, sud du Maniema, Nord Kivu, et l'ouest d'Ituri

February - May 2020

Carte de Résultats estimés les plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, février à mai 2020: Minimal (Phase 1 de l'IPC) dans le nord, Stress(Phase 2 de l'IPC) dans le sud-est, et Sud Kivu/nord Maniema, et Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC) dans les Kasais, Tanganyika, sud du Maniema, Nord Kivu, et l'ouest d'Ituri

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Widespread flooding in much of the east-central region of the DRC significantly disrupted the agricultural season A crop cycle, particularly for maize and groundnuts. As a result, harvests are expected to be lower than normal due to the losses caused by the floods. This situation will have negative effects on local availability and could precipitate the peak of the lean season in early March instead of April.

  • Despite the significant return of IDPs to the Kasai region, which is estimated at 63 percent of the 1.6 million registered IDPs, according to UNHCR, the low level of assistance for agricultural inputs and other livelihood needs that were lost when these populations were displaced could lead to incomplete reintegration leading to local concerns that some remobilization of young people from the various regional militias may occur.

  • The nutritional situation at the national level remains a cause for concern. According to PRONANUT, in its final bulletin for 2019, 50 percent of alert situations were in the Kasai region, with a marked predominance in Kasai Central, which has nearly 75 percent of its health zones in alert.  Given the consecutive years of low agricultural production, there are concerns that the poor nutritional situation in these usually agriculturally deficit areas may continue. 

  • The resurgence of the cassava mosaic in 5 health zones (Katende, Muetshu, Lubunga and Benatshiadi) in Dimbelenge and Mutoto territories in Kasai Central, could contribute to serious crop losses in this deficit area, since cassava is the substitute food for maize, for which access is becoming increasingly limited due to atypical price variations observed since the last quarter of 2019.

  • In this month of January, which marks the start of the main harvests throughout the eastern part of the country, the north-eastern provinces, notably Bas-Uele, Haut-Uele and Tshopo, are in Minimum (IPC Phase 1), while a significant part of the central-eastern of the country, notably Sankuru, Maniema, and part of South Kivu, is in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The provinces of Tanganyika, southern Kasai (Kamonya), and Central Kasai (Luiza) which are in a Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In addition, the provinces of Ituri and North Kivu also remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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