Forecast below average season A harvests in the northeast

In the north-east and centre-east of the country, the green harvests of the A 2022/23 season will improve household food consumption. However, this season's harvests will be below the five-year average, particularly for poor households and recently-identified displaced persons, due to the intensification of violence and reduced participation in agricultural activities.

The continuing offensive by M23 rebels in North Kivu continues to exacerbate the already precarious humanitarian situation in this province. According to OCHA, some 450,000 people have been displaced since the fighting began in Rutshuru in March 2022, and more than 7,000 others have taken refuge in neighboring Uganda. According to UNHCR, 97 percent of the displaced have found shelter in churches, schools, stadiums and makeshift sites.

In October 2022, flooding was recorded in several localities, notably in the provinces of Maniema, Tshopo and Equateur, due to the heavy rains that fall daily in these regions. According to CARITAS, these floods, which are destroying thousands of hectares of crops, fish farming infrastructures and homes, have already affected around 9,000 households in the Kailo territory in Maniema. The effects of these floods could affect agricultural production in these localities, exacerbating food insecurity in an area already weakened by population movements.

Throughout the eastern zone, prices of the main foodstuffs are subject to seasonal variations, accentuated by volatility linked to insecurity in the area. Data collected in December 2022 confirm price volatility, with variations of 56 and 32 percent compared with the five-year average and the same period of the previous year respectively. This situation is due to the global situation, and particularly to the various crises in the country's agricultural production basins, notably in the provinces of North Kivu, Ituri and Kwango. This situation could be exacerbated by the price rises expected during the end-of-year festivities.

In the bimodal areas of the east, populations in conflict zones are experiencing food consumption gaps earlier than usual at this pivotal time in December. These areas, namely the provinces of Kasai, Maniema, Tanganyika, Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu, will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). On the other hand, areas with minimally adequate food consumption (Lomami, Lwalaba) will remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Stable areas in the north, such as Tshopo, Bas-Uele and Haut-Uele, will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in December and January, while some areas in the center-east will be in Stress (IPC Phase 2).