Season A green harvests are underway in the northeast and center-east

The 2021/22 green harvest has started in the northeast and central-east; this should improve household food consumption, particularly among poor households and recently displaced persons. However, with the intensification of violence and the resulting reduced participation in agricultural activities due to displacement and field abandonment, seasonal harvests are anticipated to be lower than the three-year average. 

Since early November 2021, attacks on IDP camps by armed groups in Ituri have continued, resulting in more victims and preventing any humanitarian access to the area. In addition, recent attacks by armed groups occurred at Drodro, Tsé, Ivu, and Komanda, exposing already vulnerable households to further displacement. According to OCHA, displaced persons and returnees increased by 8 percent and 143 percent between December 2020 and January 21, respectively. As a result, displaced populations cannot access food and are abandoning their livelihoods, further aggravating their precarious nutritional status.

In support of the FARDC, the Ugandan army (UPDF) began its offensive against rebel groups in late November 2021, causing them to break into small groups and increase attacks on the civilian population. According to OCHA, approximately 22,700 people have been newly displaced since October 2021. In the coming months, an increase in the intensity of the conflict throughout Ituri province despite the Ugandan army's offensive is expected. Consequently, agricultural production will decline due to households' limited access to their fields. 

In most monitored markets, prices of basic foodstuffs and major imported food products, including rice and refined vegetable oil, remained stable compared to last year and the three-year average. However, with the year-end festivities, increased demand could be expected in the face of relatively average supply, which could cause seasonal price increases in the various markets, impacting food access for poor households.

The food security situation is almost identical to that of the previous month, with areas in the northeast showing no consumption deficits and being Minimal (IPC Phase 1), while the central part of the northern Kasai region, which was Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with minimally adequate food consumption, will remain in this phase. Conflict areas will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) with food consumption deficits and acute malnutrition above normal levels.