Food access to rapidly deteriorate with the lean season start, following increased conflict in the east

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The lean season begins in August across most of the country. Intensification and expansion of conflict since early 2025 is expected to more rapidly worsen food insecurity in affected areas compared to last year, particularly in Djugu (Ituri), Walungu (South Kivu), Masisi, and Rutshuru (North Kivu). Many conflict-affected rural households caught in the violence were unable to harvest during Season 2 in January or begin preparations for Season 1 in March-April, thus missing two typical resupply periods. Although many households have returned to their places of origin, they will continue to face severe food access difficulties until the green harvest in December, and will be unable to avoid food consumption deficits. Their financial resources have been severely impacted by the disruption of harvests, displacement, and even forced returns. Assistance needs are expected to be higher than last year, increasing until December, then slightly decreasing with the main harvest in January 2026.
The humanitarian situation in Ituri continues to deteriorate. The activities of several armed groups in the territories of Djugu, Irumu, and Mambasa are worsening insecurity and causing intense fear among the local population. In Ituri, between June 27 and August 12, at least 127 people were killed and 14 injured. Between mid-June and mid-August, 82,800 people were newly displaced in Djugu territory. In response, the Ugandan army is increasing its presence alongside the Congolese army. However, operations are disrupting the supply of essential goods, especially along the Bunia–Mahagi corridor, the main economic artery for the Ituri province. As a result, prices of fuel and essential goods are soaring. A liter of gasoline has risen from 3,300 to 4,000 CDF, compared to 2,500 CDF before the disruptions, and the price of cereals and other products has also increased.
In Kwamouth territory (Mai-Ndombe), the food security situation remains concerning due to ongoing insecurity. Attacks by Mobondo militiamen have made the territory nearly inaccessible, causing forced displacements, civilian deaths, a sharp drop in market supply flows, and reduced access to basic social services. The conflict has disrupted not only farming activities but also multiple consecutive harvests for households still able to cultivate. The Season 1 harvest, which has just ended, is expected to improve household food consumption only briefly before stocks are rapidly depleted. Many households are likely to face increasing food consumption deficits until the green harvest in December and the main Season 2 harvest in January.
In flood-prone areas (notably the provinces of Équateur, Tshuapa, Tshopo, and Tanganyika), households continue to struggle with the impacts of severe and repeated flooding over the past two years. Many have experienced drastically reduced incomes, crop losses, and the destruction of assets. The seasonal improvement in food availability should help households meet their food needs, though households are expected to rely on negative coping strategies, such as purchasing less-preferred foods and reducing essential spending on healthcare and education. However, with the lean season approaching and rising food prices, particularly during the peak seasonal flooding in October and November when access is most difficult, households are expected to increasingly resort to negative coping strategies such as reducing meal frequency or selling assets until Season 2 harvests begin.
August 2025 marks the preparation phase for the start of Season 2 in the east-central and northeast regions. Given below-average harvests in previous seasons, due to constant population displacements in conflict zones, and excessive rains and flooding in lowland areas during critical points of the last agricultural cycle, farming households are expected to struggle to access inputs and seeds due to disruptions that affected both harvests. This could lead to reduced area planted, particularly in the provinces of Ituri, North and South Kivu, and regions that experienced severe flooding over the past two years.
Unlike the past three years (during which the CDF depreciated by more than 30 percent annually against the US dollar), the CDF/USD exchange rate has remained stable on the parallel market since early 2025. This trend occurs in an economic context marked by strong demand for foreign currency and the volatility of global commodity prices, which are the DRC's main sources of revenue. This currency stability is helping to moderate the prices of key food items. According to REACH, the national median cost of the Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) decreased by 2 percent between May and June 2025, reaching 328,629 CDF (~111 USD), an 8 percent decrease compared to June 2024. Although the cost remains high, this situation favors stability of and increased food access, particularly for heavily market-dependent households living outside conflict zones.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Democratic Republic of Congo Key Message Update August 2025: Food access to rapidly deteriorate with the lean season start, following increased conflict in the east, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.