Early start of the lean season amid continuing conflict in the country

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Despite armed groups signing a cessation of hostilities agreement in April 2024, attacks on civilians have continued In Ituri, notably by the Cooperative for Development of the Congo (CODECO), Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), and ZAIRE groups. According to the Population Movement Commission, nearly 40,000 people were newly displaced in the Djugu territory during the month of June as a result of these attacks. In addition, security services are warning of the infiltration of M23 rebels into Ituri. Close monitoring of the situation will be necessary in the months ahead, as an escalation in violence could increase forced displacement and the proportion of the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes. A significant proportion of newly displaced people are likely to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, having lost access to their livelihoods without food assistance.
In the conflict-affected areas of greatest concern (Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, and Kwamouth), displaced households with no access to their fields or to temporary agricultural employment opportunities and related in-kind support will have to rely on the market for food supplies after the early depletion of their limited own-food stocks. With below-average purchasing power and above-average staple food prices, these households are likely to be unable to meet their basic food needs and are likely to resort to negative coping strategies such as selling off remaining productive assets or skipping meals. As a result, most of these areas will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January 2025.
In areas of the central basin (former Equateur and Orientale provinces) that have experienced historic flooding over the past two cropping seasons, households have yet to recover. These households are divesting their major livelihoods and employing coping strategies such as cutting back on meals, reducing other essential expenses such as medical and education costs, or selling productive assets that were not destroyed in the floods. Thus, most of these flood-prone areas will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes due to the cumulative effects of previous floods and the anticipated effects of floods expected to occur during the peak flood period between October and November 2024. Areas that have suffered the most severe flooding will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until January 2025.
The lean season that began atypically early in August in the northeast and center-east is impacting food prices. As a result of dwindling local production stocks, households are increasingly dependent on food purchases, causing prices to rise steadily. Compared with last July, corn prices rose by an average of 18 percent in the main markets in July 2024, while vegetable oil prices increased by 10 percent. These price rises are eroding the already limited household purchasing power. Continued currency depreciation and high fuel prices are also increasing price levels. However, the Congolese government is planning to reduce taxes and duties on certain products, notably food, in the coming months, which could slightly improve household purchasing capacities.
August 2024 marks the start of preparations for the next agricultural season in the center-east and northeast, as well as the beginning of the lean season. This period is expected to begin earlier than usual, given that harvests in previous seasons were below average due to reductions in cultivated area because of the conflict. According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data, eastern and central DRC are expected to record above-average cumulative rainfall from July to September. Thus, international weather forecasts indicate favorable rainfall compared with the previous season, which will favor the vegetative cycle of the main staple crops. In addition, seasonal flooding is expected to peak between October and November, although it is not expected to be as severe as in previous seasons in the central basin areas and along the main rivers.
In southwestern areas (Kinshasa, Bandundu, Kongo Central) that are more secure, stable, and economically integrated households are able to generate income from a variety of sources, including, but not limited to, their own-production, temporary farm work, petty trading, and gathering wild products. As a result, most households in these areas are able to cover their food and non-food needs without engaging in negative coping strategies and are expected to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. In the southeast (former Katanga province), revenues from mining and petty trade enable households to cover their basic food and non-food needs without engaging in atypical strategies to access food. These areas are expected to be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Democratic Republic of Congo Key Message Update August 2024: Early start of the lean season amid continuing conflict in the country, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.