Worsening security situation disrupting harvests in eastern parts

• Season B harvests are starting in eastern parts of the country amid renewed hostilities, particularly on the volcanic agricultural land in Rutshuru, which may mean a smaller harvest than in the previous growing season. Climate disruption was reflected in delayed rains on the Ruzizi plain, the breadbasket of the central eastern area, which damaged crops in the first two months of the growing cycle.

• The resurgence of the earlier March 23 (M23) rebellion has soured already tense relations between the countries in the Grands Lacs region. Fighting between this armed group and loyalist forces has already caused the displacement of around 100,000 people, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). This could lead to widespread clashes in border areas between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, exacerbating the already precarious humanitarian situation in the region.

• In the provinces of Ituri and Nord-Kivu, which are plagued by conflict and still experiencing significant population movements, the population is facing increasing consumption deficits and the area remains in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The stable area in the central north remains in Minimal (IPC Phase 1), with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) areas in the central east, where households will experience minimally adequate food consumption.

Current Situation

Security situation and population movements: Populations in conflict zones are experiencing increasing impact from multiple forms of violence, which is leading to widespread forced displacement, particularly in the east of the country. In April 2022, the East African Community launched an initiative calling on these armed groups to surrender. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reports a decrease in hostilities compared to January 2022. However, on the ground, there continue to be both clashes between armed groups and intercommunity conflict. This is despite an extension to the state of siege in the provinces of Nord-Kivu and Ituri, and a pooling of operations between the Ugandan army (Uganda People's Defence Force, UPDF) and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC). According to OCHA alerts, from January to April 2022, 750,129 people were newly displaced in the DRC. The DRC currently has nearly 5.6 million internally displaced persons in 13 provinces, 85 percent of whom are in Nord-Kivu, Sud-Kivu, or Ituri (Figure 1).

Progress of the growing season: Growing season B, which runs from mid-March to June, got off to a good start in the northeastern and central eastern parts of the country, and there are indications that the growing cycle will be mostly normal. However, in the northeastern, southeastern, and central eastern parts of the country, there were sudden population movements during the growing season. Combined with poor rainfall distribution during season B, particularly on the Ruzizi plain, this resulted in low production at the end of the season. Cumulative rainfall for the 2021/22 season was significantly below average in central eastern DRC. The subsequent harvests are expected to be below average, and likely to generate only low levels of local supply.

Markets and trade flows: According to FEWS NET market analysis, there are atypical cyclical fluctuations in the prices of the main imported products – in particular rice and refined vegetable oil – due to slowdowns in supplies and speculative supplies, likely linked to the crisis in Ukraine. There is also a slowdown in supplies from neighboring countries such as Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania due to the uncertainty caused by the current global crisis. Fuel prices have also increased due to limited imports in recent months. Since April, fuel prices in the DRC have risen by between 10 and 30 percent, depending on the market. This has had an impact on the prices of goods and services, and therefore on poor households' access to foods that form an important part of their food basket. Despite a relative fall in the prices of local products following the season B harvests, the higher cost of transport due to rising global prices for petroleum products is keeping prices above average.

Agricultural and non-agricultural labor: Labor is still available in agricultural areas, mostly provided by poor households who have not had access to their land due to repeated displacement during the conflicts. These are poor households who work for middle-income and wealthy households. In terms of mining labor, the mines are increasingly controlled by the militia, who commit atrocities against miners, as observed in the Djugu territory in Ituri. It is difficult to ascertain the availability of labor given this instability and insecurity. Most mining operators have suspended their activities due to the atrocities by armed groups.

Overall economic conditions: According to the Ministry of Finance, the DRC's economy is currently performing well. This is a result of the surge in international prices for raw materials. However, since March 2022, fuel prices have been adjusted following the ongoing exogenous shocks due to the increase in international fuel prices, which has led to a rise in transport costs. Meanwhile, the national currency has undergone monthly depreciation, standing at 1.033 percent at the end of April 2022. This instability in local currency is also contributing to price instability, not only for imported products but also for locally produced commodities.

The overall trend for the DRC's main mining exports is slightly down. On May 3, 2022, the price of a ton of zinc was down by 3 percent. In addition, according to the World Bank, the rise in energy prices over the past two years has been the highest since the 1973 oil crisis.

Humanitarian assistance: During this period, the various interventions have reached 1.8 million out of the target of 8.8 million in the Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP), giving an achievement rate of approximately 20 percent. Most food security interventions are concentrated in the eastern part (Nord-Kivu, Ituri, Tanganyika, Sud-Kivu, and Maniema), with some also in northwestern and central areas (Nord-Ubangi, Kasaï, Kasaï Oriental, and Kasaï Central).

Current food security outcomes

This June, which sees the start of season B harvests in the northeast, central east, and southeast, current agricultural production will improve food availability in the region and thus reduce the consumption deficit observed there. However, in the northeast, where there are significant population movements, some will experience low production and others will not be taking part in the growing season. As a result, the northeast will not be able to cover its consumption deficit through the harvests from this growing season alone and will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In contrast, households in the provinces of Maniema and Tanganyika, most of which are in a post-conflict situation and have been able to take part in the season's agricultural activities, are Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as they are able to meet their minimum requirements for food consumption. Finally, the stable areas in the north — which have had a typical growing season and are having near-normal harvests, boosting access to sources of income and food — are not experiencing a food consumption deficit and are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

Trends in global acute malnutrition trends and epidemics: Recent reports from the Nutritional Surveillance, Food Security and Early Warning System (SNSAP in French) have issued alerts for several health districts in the DRC. The latest Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transitions (SMART) surveys conducted in some areas have found high rates of severe acute malnutrition, sometimes above critical thresholds. According to the Nutrition Cluster, approximately 2.2 million people are experiencing acute malnutrition in the DRC. The east of the country is particularly affected by population movements, which are a contributory factor for malnutrition.

Meanwhile, the western part is particularly affected by chronic conditions. In addition, measles outbreaks have been reported in several provinces, including Sankuru, Tanganyika, and Sud-Ubangi.

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for June 2022 to January 2023 is based on the following assumptions at the national level.

• Conflict and population movements:
  • Ituri/Nord-Kivu: Conflict could worsen in these two provinces, and participation in income-generating activities could be disrupted.
  • Sud-Kivu: In the coming months, attacks by rebel groups are likely to increase as they seek to recapture lost ground.
  • Tanganyika: Despite the lull observed in the area, the current intercommunity conflicts are likely to continue sporadically, although with far fewer conflict incidents than reported in the high-intensity conflict areas of Nord-Kivu and Sud-Kivu.
• Agroclimatic conditions: Based on NMME and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts, there is a high likelihood of average rainfall over much of southern Africa, including the DRC, from October 2022 to January 2023. This is likely to result in a normal start to season A (Figure 2). There may be above-average rainfall in January 2023 due to the expected La Niña conditions. Average temperatures are likely throughout the southern region. In bimodal areas in the northeast and central eastern regions, the growing cycle is expected to begin on time.
• Agricultural production (season B) and food availability: Harvests for growing season B, as in previous seasons, are expected to be below average throughout the eastern area, due to incessant population movements that have resulted in low household participation in farming activities, particularly in areas with active conflicts. There will be low availability of local food in the face of rising demand.
• Economic conditions: Energy prices are likely to rise by more than 50 percent in 2022. Prices of agricultural products and metals are expected to rise by almost 20 percent in 2022 and then fall in the coming years. Given the monthly depreciation, the instability of the local currency could lead to price volatility, not only for imported goods but also for locally produced commodities, during the scenario period.
• Markets and household stocks: With below-average harvests expected for season B, there is expected to be low availability of local produce but steady demand. Household stocks from season B will not be sufficient to cover needs until August. Following this will be the lean season, during which households will be mostly dependent on market purchases until the next harvest in mid-December 2022, while experiencing declining purchasing power. Markets will operate as normal, except in conflict areas, where the security situation is disrupting market supplies and functioning.
• Food prices: Prices will rise for basic foods. In the coming months and linked to the crisis in Ukraine, the price of rice is expected to rise due to higher consumption, increased trade, and depletion of stocks. Maize prices are expected to rise due to high demand for it for food, seed, and industrial use, and due to reduced stocks. Wheat prices are expected to rise and remain above 2021 levels because global exports are expected to be lower.
• Fertilizer situation in connection with the crisis in Ukraine: The DRC imports about 65 million tons of fertilizer annually, a large proportion of which comes from Russia. The economic restrictions imposed on Russia will inevitably reduce supplies from this source, while there will be steady local demand, mainly for nitrogen fertilizers. Fertilizer prices may therefore increase, limiting farming households' access to them.
• Non-agricultural labor (mining): With the fall in global prices for raw materials, particularly copper and cobalt, there may be a reduction in income for non-agricultural labor in mining areas, mainly in the southeast of the country (Lualaba and Haut-Katanga provinces). In addition, in the eastern part of the country, there may be a significant reduction in non-agricultural labor due to the activities of armed groups and their occupation of mines.
• Humanitarian access: Given that the HRP was only able to reach 20 percent of the target population due to low funding in 2022, and given the increase in needs due to new crises in Rutshuru, coverage of food assistance will remain low.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

From June to September 2022, northeastern and central eastern areas will experience first a two-month post-harvest period (June and July), then the start of the lean season, which will begin early in August due to the poor harvests for the previous season. The June harvests will allow households to improve their food consumption for as long as their food stocks last. These households, who will have improved their income by selling harvest produce, will then be dependent on their own production. Starting in August, with the lean season expected to be earlier and longer than for season B, and with reserves almost completely depleted, most households will be dependent on the market for their supplies. In conflict-affected areas, the worsening security situation could result in additional households abandoning their livelihoods, and thus food consumption deficits gradually increasing over subsequent growing seasons. Eastern areas experiencing the impacts of the protracted crisis will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), in particular Ituri (Irumu and Djugu), Sud-Kivu (Uvira and Fizi), and Nord-Kivu (Beni, Rutshuru, and Masisi). There are attempts to improve stability in the provinces of Lomami, Sankuru, Kasaï Oriental, Kasaï, parts of Maniema, and the former Katanga. Here, households have better access to food and income as they have been able to conduct full growing seasons, and they will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The provinces of Haut-Uélé, Bas-Uélé and Tshopo, which have not experienced significant shocks and do not have a food consumption deficit, will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

From October 2022 to January 2023, which corresponds to the peak of the lean season in eastern DRC, households throughout the area will be in an increasingly difficult situation, with limited access to food due to depletion of stocks. The green harvests in December are expected to provide relief to populations who have begun to develop often damaging and irreversible coping strategies, and to improve household food consumption throughout the east. Much of northern and central DRC, including Bas-Uélé, Haut-Uélé, Tshopo, Sankuru, and Lualaba, which is considered a stable area with sufficient stocks to cover the lean season, is expected to be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). Meanwhile, central southern and southeastern DRC, in particular Maniema, Sud-Kivu, and the former Katanga, are expected to become Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Trends in malnutrition: According to figures from the latest nutritional surveys conducted in the DRC, the prevalence of severe acute malnutrition is above the critical (>5 percent) and even emergency (>10 percent) thresholds in some provinces of Kasaï, and in Haut-Lomami, Ituri, and Nord-Ubangi. The additional population movements expected over the coming period will further weaken the livelihoods of the most vulnerable and lead to increasingly worrying food deficits, especially in areas of military operation.

Events that Might Change the Outlook

Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario.