Food assistance needs expected to increase amid lean season in Angola

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through May 2025, specifically in Cunene, Cuando Cubango, and parts of Huíla, Namibe, and Moxico provinces. Households are facing food consumption deficits driven by reduced to limited access to own-produced crops and market foods amid below-average purchasing power. Many households are resorting to coping strategies such as reducing the number or size of meals; prioritizing childrens’ meals; withdrawing children from school; accessing wild foods and small animals; migrating in search of pasture for livestock; selling poultry and livestock; and selling firewood and charcoal. 
• In the worst drought-affected south and east regions, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist through May 2025 due to the combination of exhausted food stocks, increased reliance on coping strategies over an extended lean season, reduced assets from multiple droughts, and high food and non-food prices.
• In the remaining rural areas of Angola, at least one in five poor and very poor households are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as general market prices remain high amid below-average income from agricultural labor, reducing purchasing power and forcing prioritization of food over non-food needs. 
• FEWS NET estimates that 1.5 to 1.99 million people are likely to require humanitarian food aid at the peak of the lean season between January and March. The population in need is largely in southern and eastern Angola. Poor households have limited food stocks and started the lean season early following the poor 2024 harvest, compounded by high food prices.

Angola has over a dozen different livelihood zones, with the central highlands among the most densely populated. The rainy season generally runs from October until May, with the lean season approximately November to February, and the main harvests peaking in April and May (Figure 1). The start of seasonal rains varies from early September in northeastern Angola to late November in the south (Figure 2). Cassava and maize production are widespread; Angola produces about three-quarters of the total maize needed for consumption in the country. Beans and potatoes are more common in the central highlands, plantains in the humid north, and drought-tolerant sorghum and millet in the dry south. Small household livestock are common throughout Angola, with cattle and goats forming a significant base of the agropastoral livelihood zones in the south. 

Food insecurity is concentrated in rural areas, though most Angolans live in towns and cities. About two-thirds of Angola’s 37 million population live in urban areas due to prior displacement during decades of war followed by the urban concentration of economic activities driven by government spending of oil revenue. Poor households are largely located in rural areas, which represent a smaller share of the overall population. 

Droughts have frequently occurred in southern Angola: prior severe droughts occurred in 2018/19 and 2020/21. The 2023/24 drought followed already poor agricultural harvests which negatively impacted household livelihoods. Southern and eastern Angola – particularly Cuando Cubango, Cunene, Huíla, and Moxico provinces – were significantly affected. As a result, livelihoods have been eroded by poor agricultural production, loss of livestock, lack of water for humans and livestock, declines in asset holdings, and displacement of people and animals. Livestock production has also been affected by the drought due to the lack of fodder and rangelands, as well as disease (such as foot-and-mouth outbreaks). Some Angolan pastoralists in the south migrate into neighboring Namibia seeking grazing land for their livestock, although poor rainfall outcomes in Namibia limit this coping strategy. 

Angola continues to have relatively high rates of maternal and child mortality from malaria, diarrhea, pneumonia, and malnutrition. Acute food insecurity as well as inadequate care and feeding practices contribute to acute malnutrition in drought-affected areas, compounded by limited access to safe drinking water and low infectious disease-vaccination coverage.

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Angola Key Messages Update for September 2024
• Angola Remote Monitoring Report for June 2024
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
• FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis

National

• Poor households are experiencing below-average purchasing power, an atypically early onset of the lean season in October (due to the poor to below-average 2024 harvest), and limited income-earning opportunities due to increased competition.
• An increasing number of poor rural households are seeking casual labor opportunities in urban centers to generate income amid the drought-related decrease in agricultural labor opportunities.

• In October, the rainy season started in northern and central Angola at below-average levels (Figure 3), although the cumulative mean is still relatively small. Nevertheless, the rainfall is improving surface-level soil moisture from much lower levels in prior months. Below-average production levels in the second season were likely due to below-average residual moisture.
• Annual headline inflation slowed slightly to 29.9 percent in September, down from 30.5 percent in August. This marks the second straight decline following 16 months of sustained inflation increases. Although the national monthly food inflation rate was slowing since April/May (the main harvests), it increased in August, and food inflation remains persistent in the drought-affected southern and eastern provinces (Figure 4). 

Southern and eastern Angola

• Following the depleted or failed 2024 harvest, above-average numbers of rural poor households are seeking agricultural labor opportunities to earn income for food purchases until the main harvest. However, agricultural and casual labor opportunities are limited, driving below-average wages and prompting some household members to migrate. Labor demand is likely to increase during the season and peak around late November, when rains begin in earnest.
• Agropastoral households have below-normal access to milk and milk sales income due to below-average pasture conditions (Figure 5). Livestock numbers are also below normal, with weakened body conditions rendering them susceptible to disease.
• Household food stocks are depleting atypically early, particularly for poor households, some of which had almost no harvest. 

Humanitarian food assistance

• As of September, WFP provided food commodity vouchers to 1,830 households out of the targeted 5,000 food-insecure households in Huíla and Cunene provinces. Within these two provinces that have received funding, only two of 14 municipalities are covered in Huíla, while two of seven municipalities are covered in Cunene.

National assumptions

• Global forecasts indicate La Niña is most likely from October 2024 through March 2025, with an expected normal to above-normal cumulative rainfall for Angola overall.
• Between October and December 2024, the start of the 2024/25 rainy season will generally provide near-average agricultural labor to poor households, including land preparation, planting, and weeding. Income from weeding will continue until the green harvests begin around March, followed by the main harvest starting in April. Some agricultural labor wages are expected to remain below average until just before the main harvest due to the negative effects of inflation on middle and better-off households’ capital. With the beginning of the harvest in April, wages for agricultural work are expected to start improving to average levels.
• Fertilizer prices are expected to remain higher than average due to the exchange rate and inflation, although limited subsidized fertilizer may be provided to some individuals and associations. Some limited credit and inputs on credit are available through the government’s Osi Yetu program, through limited marketing arrangements with the government’s Entreposto organization, and private agribusinesses such as Carrinho.
• Poor households’ access to seeds in most southern and eastern parts of Angola will likely remain below average and likely lead to reduced yields, despite some limited input distribution by the government and humanitarian partners.
• Above-average food prices are expected throughout the projection period, as well as high headline inflation (albeit at a slowing pace). An injection of 250 million USD by the National Bank of Angola into the economy through commercial banks helped the Kwanza (AOA) to recover against the USD. However, food prices may increase even further and exacerbate decreases in purchasing power, if inflation rises again due to further fuel subsidy cuts, which are a condition for IMF loans. The government continues to subsidize gasoline and diesel according to the World Bank, but cuts are likely in 2025. 
• Kwenda II, an extension of the Kwenda cash transfer program, is planned to extend to over 600,000 urban households for a total of 2.2 million families during 2025. In 2024, 1.2 million families of the 1.6 million registered in the rural areas have been reached thus far. The program may help mitigate effects of high prices by improving their purchasing capacity.

Sub-national assumptions for southern and eastern Angola

• Soil moisture levels are expected to gradually improve with rainfall from October to December 2024, but the below-average soil moisture may affect the early planted crops in October and November. 
• Significant water availability and access challenges are expected to continue negatively impacting some livelihood activities (e.g., horticulture and breeding of small livestock such as goats and chicken) until the start of the 2024/25 rainy season. Continued poor pasture conditions will likely impact livestock body conditions, sales, and income from livestock and milk sales through the end of the year. Many agropastoral household members will likely participate in livestock migration at the expense of preparation for and income from the 2024/25 agricultural season due to the long distances travelled. By January, sufficient rainfall is expected to improve water access for people and animals, increasing pasture availability that will improve livestock body conditions.
• Some agricultural labor wages are expected to remain below average until just before the main harvest due to the reduction in assets of some middle and better-off households in the previous season.

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumptions

• Humanitarian food assistance efforts are mainly centered around the areas of concern. Due to funding constraints, food assistance is not expected to be significant (as defined by the IPC thresholds that at least 25 percent of households receive at least 25 percent of their caloric needs). 

Sub-national assumption for Huíla, Cunene, Cuando Cubango, and Moxico provinces

• The Central Emergency Response Funding being administered through WFP is covering a six-month period (June to November) in only two of the five targeted provinces. There are no current expectations for humanitarian food assistance during the lean season, when the population in need is expected to peak. Without any further humanitarian assistance, acute food security outcomes are expected to worsen between November and February.

National

From October 2024 to January 2025, the 2024/25 rainy and agricultural season will begin, with forecasts indicating a normal start. The number of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) households is expected to increase, with households able to meet their minimum caloric needs but struggling to earn enough income to sustain their basic livelihoods. However, limited self-employment opportunities, combined with increased competition and above-average food prices, are leading to acute food insecurity. An increase in the number of malnutrition cases is expected with the start of the lean season. Continued upward pressure on food prices due to limited supply of imported goods, coupled with limited supply of local production, will reduce households’ purchasing power. As a result, households will prioritize spending on food over health, education, and other non-food needs.

February/March to May 2025 marks a transition from the peak of the lean season to the main harvest of the 2024/25 season. From March to April, the overall food security situation is likely to improve as green harvests become gradually available and the main harvest begins. Food security outcomes will improve from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) for most households, with worst-affected households remaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as they slowly recover.

Southern and eastern Angola

From the early start of the lean season in October through February, food access will decline and very poor households with limited to no own-produced food will intensify their coping strategies by prolonging migration; opting for less preferred and cheaper foods; relying on wild foods; and hunting small wild animals for food and income to make market purchases. Household purchasing power is anticipated to be well below average due to below-normal incomes, leading to limited access to food and food consumption gaps. An increasing number of poor households are expected to resort to severe coping strategies, indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

Very poor households will continue to face deficits in food consumption, and this situation is likely to deteriorate over time as the lean season peaks in February/March. The green harvest around March is expected to slightly improve food access. The main cereal harvests are expected through May in the livelihood zones worst affected by the 2023/24 El Niño-related drought, and will likely be average to slightly below average due to constraints in preparing the 2024/25 crops. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through May 2025 as the below-average harvests are compounded by high inflation and below-normal assets.

Acute malnutrition cases are expected to increase, with most cases likely between April and May due to limited access to safe drinking water and vaccination coverage. As of September 2024, 27,762 children under five had been screened for malnutrition in Chibia, Humpata, Cuanhama, and Ombadja municipalities, with 6,506 admitted into the Management of Acute Malnutrition program. In Benguela, Huíla, and Cunene, 21,264 beneficiaries were reached by the school feeding program. Overall, a potential increase in acute malnutrition rates in 2025 is likely to be exacerbated by inadequate access to treatment amid ongoing funding gaps.

National 

Fuel subsidy reduction

Likely impact on food security outcomes: A significant cut in fuel subsidies would likely lead to an increase in food prices and food insecurity. Although government documents initially mentioned an additional cut in fuel subsidies for the second half of 2024, it is likely to be postponed to 2025 due to the negative effects of the first cut and additional fiscal space (due to higher-than-budgeted oil production and prices).

Further slowdown of inflation 

Likely impact on food insecurity outcomes: The currency sale operation into commercial banks has resulted in the depreciation of the Angolan Kwanza in October and slowed inflation for two consecutive months. This depreciation will likely lead to further inflation slowdowns in 2025, and ease access to food and non-food essentials for some households. 

Below-average rainfall in northern Angola

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Historical patterns suggest there is some risk of below-average rainfall in northern Angola in analog La Niña years, which would likely reduce harvest levels only slightly (due to more diversified and resilient cropping systems), and slightly increase acute food insecurity among poor households.